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The week in preview: Macy's, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, JCPenney, and Kohl's

Update Nov. 26, 2008: See all 2008 Black Friday deals.

This week, some apparel and accessory producers and retailers offer a look at how they've been doing between early summer's economic stimulus spending and the coming holiday season. While Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL) reported higher earnings last week, Coldwater Creek Inc. (NASDAQ: CWTR), Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: EBHI), Kenneth Cole Productions Inc. (NYSE: KCP), and K-Swiss Inc. (NASDAQ: KSWS) all reported net losses as consumers pulled back on spending over the summer due to higher fuel prices and other economic worries. The expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial for such companies scheduled to report this week don't look much different; i.e., a bright spot or two among lower expectations overall.

Hip retailer Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) is expected to post earnings 22.9% higher than a year ago, to $0.35 per share, on revenue of $475.9 million (+26.4%). The Philadelphia-based company already said that same-store sales in the quarter were 10% higher. Urban Outfitters has beat expectations in recent quarters, by 11.5% in the previous quarter, and analysts on average recommend buying URBN. Shares fell to a 52-week low of $16.61 per share on Friday, and are down 29.5% from a year ago. Other companies expected to report more modest earnings growth in the coming week include watch and accessory maker Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX), parent of such discount retail chains as T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. These three companies have tended to top analysts estimates in recent quarters, and Fossil and TJX ended the week near their 52-week lows.

While Los Angeles-based American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) had a strong second quarter, the casual wear maker is expected to report $0.13 per share earnings for the third quarter, the same as in the year-ago period. And analysts anticipate that Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) will report that profits fell 16.4% to $0.51 per share on revenue of $3.9 billion (+1.9%). Though same-store sales for October fell 9%, the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based company reaffirmed its third-quarter forecast. Kohl's has offered positive surprises in recent quarters, topping estimates by 5.6% in the previous quarter. The consensus recommendation remains to buy KSS. Shares have been climbing after reaching a 52-week low in late October, but are still down 32.8% from a year ago.

Continue reading The week in preview: Macy's, Nordstrom, Abercrombie, JCPenney, and Kohl's

Analyst downgrades: KSWS, BJRI and F

MOST NOTEWORTHY: K Swiss, BJ's Restaurants and Ford were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merrill expects the turnaround at K Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS) to be difficult given weakening retail sales. Shares were downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
  • Jefferies cut shares of BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) to Hold from Buy due to the company's high relative exposure to the subprime mortgage markets.
  • Ford (NYSE: F) was downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns. The firm recommends taking some profits following the recent rally in shares. Shares were also cut to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, citing valuation, and to Sell from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst initiations: CALP, NTAP, EMC, CNQR and TTGT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Caliper Life Sciences, Network Appliance, EMC Corp, Concur Tech and TechTarget were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Caliper Life Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: CALP) was initiated at Piper Jaffray with an Outperform rating and $8 target. Piper believes the company's collection of acquisitions offers a diverse portfolio targeting a $1.2B segment of the life science tools market.
  • Credit Suisse resumed coverage of Network Appliance Inc (NASDAQ: NTAP) and EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) with Neutral ratings and a $28 target and $20 target, respectively, as they have concerns of near-term demand risk.
  • Concur Technologies (NASDAQ: CNQR) was started at Jefferies with a Buy rating and $40 target, as they believe the company is changing the landscape of employee expense management by integrating travel and expense reimbursement and feels shares deserve a premium valuation.
  • Oppenheimer sees limited upside from current levels at TechTarget Inc (NASDAQ: TTGT) and would consider an entry point in the low-to-mid teens. The firm started shares with a Neutral rating and $17 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Analyst downgrades: BP, COP, CVX, WYE and XOM

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wyeth (WYE), Luminent Mortgage Capital (LUM), CheckFree (CKFR), EOG Resources (EOG) and K-Swiss (KSWS) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Cowen downgraded Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) to Neutral from Outperform based on limited long-term limited visibility.
  • JP Morgan downgraded shares of Luminent Mortgage (NYSE: LUM) to Underweight from Neutral citing difficult CMO and CDO market conditions.
  • JP Morgan downgraded CheckFree (NASDAQ: CKFR) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's acquisition by FiServ (FISV).
  • Matrix cut shares of EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) to Sell from Buy to reflect lower natural gas prices and increasing costs.
  • Matrix believes soft demand for athletic shoes is leading to declining sales for K-Swiss (NASDAQ: KSWS), and cut shares to Sell from Buy...

OTHER DOWNGRADES
:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 2-23-07: Newmont Mining downgraded to Underperform

MOST NOTEWORTHY:
  • L-3 Communications Holdings Inc (NYSE: LLL) was downgraded by Bank of America to Neutral from Buy based on valuation, as they see limited upside from current levels. The firm's target for L-3 is $92.
  • NewMont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM) was downgraded by RBC Capital Markets to Underperform from Sector Perform based on Newmont's weak production profile and declining financial forecasts. The firm lowered its price target for Newmont to $48 from $52.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • K Swiss Inc (NASDAQ: KSWS) was downgraded by Susquehanna to Neutral from Positive. The firm does not believe domestic sales will stabilize until 2008 and sees European growth being less robust over the next several quarters.
  • Alltel Corporation (NYSE: AT) was downgraded at Deutsche Bank to Hold from Buy on valuation. The firm's target for Alltel is $63.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 06:50 AM

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