MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Friedman Billings downgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) and Pacific Ethanol Inc (NASDAQ: PEIX) to Underperform and VeraSun Energy Corporation (NYSE: VSE) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. The firm said the ethanol market has become increasingly challenging as spot market prices have declined by 30% in the past few months and expect pressure to remain through 2008 as the industry's growing pains continue.
  
• Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Underweight from Equal Weight on valuation and regulation uncertainty ahead of Ofcom's first consultation document next week.
  
• AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman to reflect the company's U.S. exposure as they expect the U.S. economy to slow.
  
• Banc of America downgraded shares of Kyphon Inc (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Neutral from Buy on valuation as the spread on the acquisition by Medtronic Inc (NYSE: MDT) has now narrowed.

• Pepsi Bottling Group Inc (NYSE: PBG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.
  
• Oppenheimer downgraded Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• ThinkEquity downgraded BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX) to Accumulate from Buy.
  
• Merrill Lynch downgraded Luxottica Group (NYSE: LUX) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst downgrades: Ethanol sector, BT, AMR and KYPH originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 20 Sep 2007 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I wrote the series the Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years back in May and June of this year. Since the series finished we had three companies go the way of acquisition: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) and Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH). All three have been or are about to close on their respective deals and will vanish from our list of 25. The good news is the premiums were outstanding and any investor who bought these stocks after reading the initial write ups is walking away with over 50% profits in a few short months!

But onward and upward: Drum roll please.....the three new stocks that I feel could be in the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 Years include: eHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: EHTH), Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) and Fuel Tech (NASDAQ:FTEK).

eHealth is a $570 million market capitalization company headquartered in Mountain View, California. The company operates a multi-web site platform that offers its customers more than 7,000 health insurance and related products. The company is licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Through its ehealth.com and ehealthinsurance.com web sites, customers can price out regular medical, dental and vision insurance. The company also provides options for student-health care insurance as well. My estimates for calendar 2007 is for revenues of $87 million and earnings per share of $.49. For 2008 I envision revenues of $115 million and earnings per share of $.68. As health care insurance is fast becoming a major political as well as economic issue, eHealth may be the winner in finding the best policies at the best price for consumers and small-to-medium size businesses.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: three new names

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: three new names originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Sep 2007 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In May and June, I wrote a series on what I think could be the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years. It was a fun exercise and a lot of work. Since the series finished in mid-June, we've been knocked down from 25 stocks to 22 stocks: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) and Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) are all being acquired for significant premiums by obviously much larger companies.

We have another on our list that, although it's not being acquired, the stock has doubled in value these past 2 1/2 months. Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) was written up on June 8. The stock was trading at $44, but it's now at $84.80. Blue Coat reported an absolutely explosive July quarter. Revenues came in at $62.4 million versus Street consensus of $58 million, representing a 71% year-over-year increase and a 15% up-sequentially from the April quarter.

The wide-area-network (WAN) optimization product set is gaining mainstream momentum. The even better news for Blue Coat Systems is that it is about to embark on an excellent new product cycle. The company saw bookings, pipeline and deferred revenues all go up substantially this past quarter and provide tremendous visibility going forward.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) -- update

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) -- update originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 28 Aug 2007 11:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Deutsche Bank cut Getty Images (NYSE: GYI) to Sell from Hold citing deterioration in its core business. Gabelli downgraded Getty Images to Hold from Buy after the company lowered guidance to reflect the changing industry dynamics.

• Goldman cut Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) to Sell from Neutral citing near-term risks that include the renegotiation of the HSBC (HBC)/RAL contract, the DoJ/IRS investigation, and decreasing performance in tax.

• Jefferies downgraded Electronic Data Systems (NYSE: EDS) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's slowing cash flow improvement.

• Wedbush downgraded RC2 Corp (NASDAQ: RCRC) to Buy from Strong Buy on the lower sales forecast for 2007. Soleil cut shares to Hold from Gradually Accumulate to reflect uncertainty over the Thomas recall and increased competition.

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform based on valuation...

• Lazard downgraded Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Hold from Buy.

• SMH Capital cut Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE: AVR) to Sell from Neutral.

• Credit Suisse downgraded AutoDesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) to Neutral from Buy.

• UBS cut SABMiller (OTC SBMRY) to Reduce from Neutral.

• CIBC downgraded Marvell Tech (NASDAQ: MRVL) to Sector Performer from Outperformer.

Analyst downgrades 8-02-07: ADSK, CMG, EDS and MRVL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Aug 2007 11:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I wrote the series, Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years during the months of May and June. It was a labor of love as I examined more than 300 companies to come up with what I thought would be the best of the best going forward. The series came to me as a result of a USA Today article back in early May detailing the top 25 stocks of the PAST 25 years. So many of the names were surprising, as many were obvious.

Since I finished the series, three of the top 25 are about to be acquired by larger, well-funded companies. Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) will be bought by Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) for $791 million, or $34 per share. Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW) will be swallowed by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) for $1.45 billion or $14.25 per share and finally, Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) will acquire Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) for $3.9 billion or $71 per share. All three transactions are for 100% cash -- no stock, which in itself is very interesting. But what happened and why are these three going to melt into larger organizations?

For emerging growth companies to become truly great, several factors need to be in place for shareholders to benefit. 1) Great and talented senior management needs to be committed and feel the passion of its company's direction. 2) A large addressable market, preferably global in nature, and 3) the opportunity to operate under the radar screen of larger, needy companies. Well, two out of three ain't bad!!

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: What happened?

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: What happened? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• RBC Capital cut American Home Mortgage (NYSE: AHM) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing the deterioration in the global debt markets for the downgrade.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) to Underweight from Equal Weight citing risk to Rituxan growth.

• Merriman downgraded Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE) to Neutral from Buy as they believe new fall merchandise is not performing well enough to improve sales trends.

• Robert W. Baird downgraded shares of Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) to Neutral from Outperform citing higher risk premium due to the IRS challenge and tighter credit markets that could impact the Bobcat divestiture.

• Children's Place (NASDAQ: PLCE) was cut to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.

• Thomas Weisel downgraded LoopNet (NASDAQ: LOOP) to Market Weight from Overweight.

• ThinkEquity cut Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Accumulate from Buy.

• Needham downgraded QLogic (NASDAQ: QLGC) to Hold from Buy.

• JMP Securities downgraded ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Analyst downgrades 7-30-07: AHM, BEBE, QLGC and VCLK originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 11:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Well, there goes another one of our top 25 for the NEXT 25 years! This morning it was announced that giant medical device company Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) will acquire Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) for $71 a share in an all cash transaction. Great deal for Medtronic and a great deal for Kyphon shareholders. Unfortunately, that takes our NEXT 25 list down to 22 companies left. Hewlett-Packard is acquiring Opsware and Philips of the Netherlands is acquiring Color Kinetics (NASDAQ:CLRK). Now, I have to find the three replacement companies to complete our list of 25!

Medtronic, I have contended for years, is the premiere medical device company in the world. The company is the franchise player in the cardiac world with a multitude of products. The staple of products ranges from cardiac surgical tools to pacemakers and implantable cardiac defibrillators. Medtronic's spinal franchise has had its share of struggles. The company has been set on working with younger patients with spinal afflictions. Kyphon, on the other hand, is very strong in working with older patients with its products that address osteoporosis. This affliction attacks nearly 700,000 woman annually in the United States alone. Kyphon's minimally invasive surgical devices and patented bone-cement were fast becoming the products of choice by surgeons.

The acquisition by Medtronic puts Kyphon's excellent product suite into the best distribution sales and marketing force the medical device industry has ever seen.

Meanwhile, I will continue my research to provide you with 3 more companies to round out our list of the top25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years.

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Medtronic to buy Kyphon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Jul 2007 12:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Stifel downgraded Hilton Hotels (NYSE: HLT) to Hold from Buy at Stifel based on the recent acquisition.

• TD Newcrest cut TransAlta (NYSE: TAC) to Sell from Hold and doesn't consider an LBO of the company likely.

• Rodman cut Cascade (NYSE: CAE) to Market Underperform from Market Perform based on valuation.

• Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at JP Morgan based on valuation and the competitive environment.

• AG Edwards believes Atheros Communications (NASDAQ: ATHR) has a less favorable risk/reward and cut shares to Hold from Buy...

• Needham downgraded Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) to Buy from Strong Buy.

• UBS downgraded Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) to Neutral from Buy.

• Deutsche Bank cut Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings (NYSE: CME) to Hold from Buy.

• Roche Holding Ltd (OTC: RHHBY) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.

Analyst downgrades 7-11-07: ATVI, CME, HLT and TSM originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jul 2007 10:57:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The fifth company in my series of the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years is Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH). Kyphon is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California and was founded in 1994. The stock is hovering around $45 today and carries a market capitalization of $2.0 billion. Kyphon is the leading company in serving the medical community with several products dealing with spinal fractures and other spinal issues.

Kyphon's products are all Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved and currently sold to hospitals and physicians world-wide. Kyphon manufactures a minimally invasive surgery (MIS) line of products to treat spinal fractures. The leading cause of spinal fractures is osteoporosis. There are over 700,000 new diagnosis of osteoporosis annually in the United States alone, with a similar number for the rest of the world. The MIS techniques that Kyphon's products facilitate allow surgeons to treat the fractures by placing a "bone cement" between the vertebrae thus relieving pain and suffering almost immediately.

Kyphon's spinal products also help physicians treat cancer patients. The biopsy products allow physicians to access suspected afflicted bone samples for diagnosis and possible treatment. What had been a difficult, very invasive procedure is now performed with an incision measuring about a half to a full inch. Patient discomfort is therefore minimal.

Continue reading Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Kyphon --the spinal leader

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Kyphon --the spinal leader originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 14 May 2007 16:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Outside the United States, the most active group of US stock owners is the British. Major British portfolio managers will spend anywhere from six to ten weeks per year visiting US based companies, either through direct visits or at brokerage firm growth conferences. It's both interesting and revealing to listen to British fund managers and the perspective they bring to the conversation.

I had breakfast this morning with one veteran fund manager, Robert, who has run US funds for two decades. He requested anonymity, which is not surprising as these competitive managers never want their competition to know what they are buying or selling -- until after it is done! Robert is in charge of a $2.5 billion US fund. He even drinks tea. Point blank I asked him, what are you buying or looking to buy in the US market? "Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH)and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). I am seriously accumulating and am carefully looking at General Electric (NYSE: GE)." Great, what stocks have you been selling or lightening up on? "Outright have dumped Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) and am seriously selling my position in Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL). Dell may take a year or two to correct its course and Oracle is paying a lot to "buy growth . . . not enough internally generated growth."

I have written a lot about GE and AAPL, but Kyphon is a new name. KYPH is a Sunnyvale, California based company that is the leader in restoring spinal function employing a minimally invasive techniques and products. The addressable market in the United States is massive as osteoporosis affects nearly 700,000 women per year and the same in the rest of the world. KYPH has a series of products and devices, all Food and Drug Administration approved. This company has been going through an explosive growth phase and my friend Robert feels they have at least 30% growth for the next 5 years.

Kyphon has a $2 billion market cap, and consensus estimates for 2007/2008 are: revenues of $580 million and $720 million respectively, and earnings per share of $.87 and $1.60 respectively. Huge and sustainable growth as the baby boomer population ages will only increase the potential market size.

According to Robert, Kyphon is the leader in the field with giant Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) trying to chase Kyphon down. "It's not happening for Medtronic, and eventually Kyphon will be bought by a huge company at a very fat premium."

Thank you, Robert. Would you care for more tea?

Georges Yared is the author of recently released books "Baby Boomer Investing...Where do we go from here?" and "Stop Losing Money Today."

Top stock picks from a senior British portfolio manager originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Mar 2007 11:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.