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Next year's investment plan: What Obama's green energy economy might portend

Over the past few months, as election rhetoric heated up and the economy has cooled, one of Barack Obama's recurring themes has been that the secret to America's future will be the development of an alternative-energy economy. To a populace that has grown increasingly weary of the lackadaisical government approach to economic disaster, this has been particularly galvanizing, and was undoubtedly a major influence on the election. Now that Obama has won, however, the next question is how he will transform those exciting New Deal-esque words into concrete action.

John Podesta, co-chairman of the Obama/Biden transition team, may provide a useful insight into this question. In his day job, Podesta is president of the Center for American Progress (CAP), a liberal think tank that is based in Washington D.C. CAP has already drafted a green-energy stimulus plan; with several programs that are ready to go, it would create 2 million jobs, and would cost a relatively meager $50 billion. While there is no guarantee that CAP's plan will be adopted, given Podesta's proximity to the presidency, it seems likely that at least part of it will become reality within the next year. For a savvy investor, this could be a blueprint for industries that are, potentially, poised to explode with a massive influx of new funds.

Green Autos: Obama has made it very clear that he intends to directly tie any automotive bailout to the development of green technologies. CAP's plan calls for a 4% per year increase in fuel-efficiency standards, as well as investment in new battery technology for plug-in hybrids. With this in mind, it's worth seriously considering which automakers are best poised to go forth with more fuel-efficient models. Furthermore, programs like CAP's "Cash for Clunkers" could be a major boon for companies that process or deal in recycled metals.

Continue reading Next year's investment plan: What Obama's green energy economy might portend

Harley-Davidson's three-wheeled HOG

When the old, conservative Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) set out to build a three-wheeled version of the iconic American motorcycle, they would have followed the standard, two-rear, one-front wheel design. Judging from their recently filed patent application, though, the company is showing a new boldness by setting off in a different, cutting-edge direction with a cool two-front, one-rear wheel, high performance design.

Last fall, the company announced an agreement with Lehman Trikes U.S.A. to cooperatively develop a three-wheeled motorcycle. For many years, Lehman has been the industry leader in converting motorcycles such as Harleys and Honda's Gold Wing to three-wheelers. The manufacturers have not been particularly supportive, though. Those who also manufacture all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), such as Honda (NYSE: HMC), are still gun-shy of the configuration in the aftermath of the 3-wheel ATV controversy, in which the industry was forced to accept a consent decree to discontinue building what proved to be an unstable 3-wheeled design.

The industry expected that Harley's design would be an extrapolation of Lehman's standard two-rear-wheel, one-front-wheel design. However, according to patent applications filed by H-D recently, they are taking a much more interesting and groundbreaking approach by pushing a two-front, one-rear-wheel design along the lines of the prototypes popular among performance aficionados made by Piaggio and DaimlerChrysler, among others. This configuration allows much improved cornering, but requires a much more technologically advanced design.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson's three-wheeled HOG

Harley-Davidson courting Ducati?

The Financial Times' Heather West reported today that Bologna, Italy-based Ducati Motor Holdings (NYSE:DMH) would be receptive to a rumored merger with Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG).

I find this rumor intriguing. As I wrote recently, H-D has been unsuccessful to date with its Buell brand in establishing a presence in the sport (road racing) bike market, which skews demographically to a younger rider. While Ducati's world-wide sales are minuscule compared to the big four Japanese brands (Honda (NYSE:HMC), Yamaha (OTC:YAMHF), Kawasaki,(OTC:KWHIY), and Suzuki (OTC:SZKMF)) none can match their road racing success, history and reputation for technical excellence.

For example, Ducati has long dominated the World Superbike Championship, motorcycling's version of Formula One racing. Like Ferrari, they are known for technical innovation and cutting-edge performance.

The company's financial status has been unsettled for years. The Texas Pacific Group bought 100% of the company in 1996-98, but has since sold all its shares, mostly to Italian investors. While Ducati appears to have righted the boat in 2006, despite a decline in units sold, the company carries a debt load that will have to be factored into any takeover. It also faces negotiation of a new union contract this year, always a concern for Italian companies. They recently filed to delist from the NYSE, citing cost considerations.

If H-D can make the numbers work, I can see a number of pluses in such a deal. Certainly its dealer network would welcome such an appealing addition to its product line. It could also leverage its existing distribution network, and perhaps manufacturing, to reduce operating costs. Ducati primarily markets its brand through its racing program, which would give H-D exposure where it currently has none.

There is no sexier name in motorcycling than Ducati, and I wouldn't be surprised to see such a deal go into negotiation.

Investing in robots: Denso, Epson and Kawasaki

A recent report from Robotics Online, the website of the Robotics Industries Association, reveals that while purchases of robotic equipment by automakers are down, overall the industry is strong. Mostly this is due to emerging markets in business sectors which are relative newcomers to robotics. The market sectors which robotics companies intend to keep pushing into include pharmaceuticals, food processing and distribution, warehousing, and a host of assembly applications and material handling solutions. Trevor Jones, President of the Robotics Industries Association indicates that there is a general consensus within the industry that while the record setting results of 2005 cannot be duplicated this year, there are plenty of good options for the robot folks to focus on while American automakers get their shirts tucked back in.

Denso Robotics is the worlds second largest manufacturer of auto parts and is a leader in the design and manufacturing of assembly robots. Denso has over 15,000 small assembly robots online in their own manufacturing operations and has placed more than 35,000 robots in operation world wide. Denso will be presenting at the 2007 Automation Technology Expo in Anaheim California.

Epson Robots is the robotic design and manufacturing division of Seiko Epson. They are a world leader in PC based assembly robots and other automated assembly solutions. Epson has an extremely proactive marketing approach which includes mini-seminars in the facilities of prospective customers. They'll even buy you lunch! Epson also has available a CD based learning program which can provide you with a solid working knowledge of basic robotics in just two hours.

Kawasaki Robotics is a manufacturer of medium to heavy duty robots used for a variety of manufacturing, fabrication, finishing, pallet fill and warehousing applications. Kawasaki Robotics boasts the installation of over 64,000 robots worldwide. Kawasaki currently has 5 model series in production and also provides equipment for non-robotic manufacturing applications.

Overall, robotics is healthy and growing. Robotics is a strong field for long range investment. Couple robotics with the ever expanding field of artificial intelligence and you have the recipe for a strong investing base facing directly into the future. Take a little tour of the Robotics Industry Association website and you'll get a good feel for what is going on behind the scenes. Some folks are worried that robots are going to continue putting factory workers out of jobs. That may be true but then again, it may not. Remember that robots will always require people to sell, install, program, inspect and service them. From what I hear, the folks who surround robots make a very nice living at it.

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DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 08:23 AM

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