Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. And with the aforementioned in mind, Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) is worth a review.

In general, analysts expect a sales decline of 4-6% for KMB in FY2009, including a negative foreign currency effect. Kimberly is being hurt by both the recession -- which has prompted widespread belt-tightening by consumers -- and by increased competition. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for KMB are $4.16 to $4.64.

Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) shares are falling today after the company lowered its second-quarter and full-year outlook well below analysts' expectations yesterday evening. The company said inflation costs would reach $900 million, double the company's original estimate. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on KMB.

After hitting a one-year high of $71.16 in October, the stock has hit a new one-year low of $50.42 today. This morning, KMB opened at $54.25. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.42 and a high of $57.68. As of 12:50, KMB is trading at $55.87, down $2.93 (-5.0%). The chart for KMB looks neutral and slightly improving while S&P gives KMB a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.9% return in three months as long as KMB is below $60 at October expiration. Kimberly-Clark would have to rise by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Invesco, Kimberly Clark and Crawford & Company were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Jefferies finds Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) compelling given the company's focus on expense control, strong cash flow characteristics, and attractive valuation. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $33 target.
  
• Caris started Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) with a Below Average rating and $58 target. The firm believes consensus estimates may be too high given the high cost of commodities.
  
• Suntrust started Crawford & Company (NYSE: CRDB) with a Buy rating and $8 target, and believes the company is at the "front end" of a turnaround in operations.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Bernstein initiated Energizer Holdings (NYSE: ENR) with an Outperform rating and $100 target.
  
• BMO Capital assumed Range Resources (NYSE: RRC) with an Outperform rating and $85 target.
  
• Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) was started with a Sell rating and $40 target at Soleil.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Corinthian Colleges, MSC Industrial and HBOS Plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Piper downgraded shares of Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) to Neutral from Buy as they expect the company to face difficulty maintaining Title IV lending at its high default rate schools.
  
• Jefferies downgraded shares of MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as there is not enough upside to their $50 target to maintain a Buy rating
  
• Credit Suisse lowered HBOS Plc (OTC: HBOOY) to Underperform from Neutral to reflect the weakening housing and mortgage environment.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.
  
• B. Riley lowered Iomega (NYSE: IOM) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman downgraded Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ: BARE) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) to Neutral from Buy and Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) to Sell from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kimberly Clark (KMB) and Amazon.com (AMZN) topped today's most notable upgrades:

• Prudential upgraded Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB) to Overweight from Underweight with an $80 target, reflecting lower commodity prices.
  
• Stifel upgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Buy from Hold with a $44 target, noting that Amazon is entering an operating leverage cycle and usually performs well in such environments.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Cowen considered bebe Stores's (NASDAQ: BEBE) risk/reward to be favorable at these levels, upgrading shares to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Prudential upgraded shares of Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pfizer (PFE), Anheuser-Busch (BUD) and the Trucking Sector top's today's extensive list of downgrades.

• Pfizer, Inc. (NYSE:PFE) was downgraded by UBS to Neutral from Buy. The firm cited increased risks to the drug-makers' outlook.
• UBS also downgraded Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc. (NYSE:BUD), citing weaker volumes and pricing expectations for the next six months.
• Wachovia downgraded the Trucking Sector to Underweight from Market Weight citing weakening fundamentals. Within the sector, Wachovia downgraded
  • Arkansas Best Corporation (NASDAQ:ABFS), Heartland Express Inc (NASDAQ:HTLD), Swift Transportation Co, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWFT) and US Xpress Enterprises, Inc. (NAsdAQ:XPRSA) to Underperform from Market Perform,
  • and Knight Transportation, Inc. (NYSE:KNX) to Market Perform from Outperform.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• JP Morgan downgraded three International Airline companies on concerns of capacity growth in 2007:
  • Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (NYSE:GOL) and TAM SA (NYSE:TAM) to Neutral from Overweight,
  • and Copa Holdings SA (NYSE:CPA) to Underweight from Neutral.
• Citigroup downgraded Kimberly Clark Corp. (NYSE:KMB) to Sell from Hold, citing valuation and near-term earnings concerns.
• Finally, Kaufman Brothers downgraded Electronic Arts, Inc. (NAsdAQ:ERTS) and THQ Inc (NASDAQ:THQI) to Hold from Buy on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).