While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.
Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.
Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.
"The organic food industry is surprisingly resilient in an economic downturn," explains Benjamin Shepard, contributing editor with Personal Finance.
He adds, "Mainstream retailers and your corner grocer have been embracing the trend, devoting an ever-growing amount of shelf space to organic foods." Here's a trio of favorites.
"What was essentially a nascent industry in 1997 with $3.6 billion in sales has exploded to a behemoth with almost $14 billion in sales in 2006, according to the Organic Trade Association.
"And barring a major economic disaster worse than we've seen thus far, the industry looks set to continue double-digit growth well into the next decade.
"That's not to say there aren't potential troubles ahead as commodity prices continue to soar. Organic farming techniques tend to be more cost intensive--ironically enough--and transport costs continue to swell.
"But so far the industry has been able to pass the bulk of the higher costs onto consumers, and although sales volumes have dropped off and profits are down, those consumers are as dedicated as ever.
The history of General Foods can be traced back to the Postum Cereal Company, founded by Charles William Post, inventor of Postum and Grape Nuts, in 1895. Wall Street player E.F. Hutton in time became the chairman, and he initiated a series of acquisitions beginning in 1925: Jell-O, Minute Tapioca, Log Cabin, Hellmann, Calumet Baking Powder, and Birdseye. It was after the Birdseye acquisition in 1929 that the food conglomerate became General Foods.
Among General Foods' many product offerings were Sanka decaffinated coffee and the astronaut's favorite, Tang. General Foods also continued to make acquisitions, including the makers of Kool-Aid in 1953, the Burger Chef restaurant chain in 1968, and Oscar Mayer in 1981.
But late in 1985, General Foods was itself acquired by Philip Morris Cos., which later became Altria Group (NYSE: MO), in the largest non-oil acquisition to date. When Philip Morris acquired Kraft in 1988, the two food companies were merged. In 2007, Altria spun off Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), which now owns such former General Foods brands as Jell-O, Kool-Aid, and Maxwell House coffee. And it was announced in late 2007 that Post Cereals, including Grape Nuts, would be sold to Ralcorp Holdings (NYSE: RAH).
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
Drinkers of fine coffee may turn their noses up at Folgers or Maxwell House, but these two brands have been household names for decades. And they're not the just offering plain, old coffee for the commoners anymore. They've both added a variety of coffees to their product mixes in an effort to lure more upscale (picky? elitist?) coffee drinkers to their brands.
Folgers, one of the Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) family of products, has added roasts such as Black Silk, French Roast, Gourmet Supreme, and House Blend. They've also got a line of flavored coffees that include Crème Brulee, Vanilla Biscotti, and Caramel Drizzle. You will also find instant cappuccino in French Vanilla and Mocha Chocolate flavors, and the trusty old plain instant coffee is still available. I've had it, and it's not all that bad when you're in a pinch!
Shares of the nation's largest food and beverage maker, Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), have been surging in morning trading despite posting a decline for its first-quarter profit, as its earnings numbers were better than analysts had forecast.
For the quarter, Kraft Foods announced that its profit dropped 13% to $608 million, compared with $702 million a year earlier, dragged down by higher expenses for ingredients. The 2007 earnings results included a one-time interest benefit related to the spin-off from Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO). On an adjusted basis, the company posted quarterly earnings of 44 cents per share, slightly higher the 40 cents per share that analysts expected.
The food giant posted solid growth in its first-quarter revenue, which climbed to $10.37 billion, up from $8.59 billion reported in the same period a year ago. Analysts had forecast lower revenue of $9.77 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Financial. The increase in revenue came as the company benefited from both the weak dollar and gains related to acquisitions.
Kraft Foods, Inc. (NYSE: KFT) is in a bit of a pickle. As the following article makes clear, the company knows it has to raise prices. There's just no choice in the matter. Commodity input costs are on the rise, and something has to give. But the problem is, consumers not only have to pay more for Kraft foodstuffs, they have to ante up more of the green stuff for everything else too -- fuel for the car, heating oil for the home, you know the drill.
If you're a Kraft shareholder, should this concern you? What about if you own other consumer-oriented stocks based on the supermarket shelves that are feeling the inflationary pinch, companies such as General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) -- which reported earnings today -- or Kellogg Company (NYSE: K), or maybe even beverage businesses like The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) or PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP)? Well, it should, of course. Inflation is no fun, and with the price of oil hitting new highs recently, a trend that seems very much intact, consumers will be strapped. In fact, Kraft is now trying to make up for lower volumes by raising the cost of its goods; this isn't ideal, perhaps, but Rick Searer, who is the president of Kraft North America, brings up an almost humorous point -- "consumers have to eat." I have yet to meet one that doesn't, come to think of it!
But I think the consumer companies are relatively sophisticated with their data-analysis protocols and are, perhaps, a bit more nimble in terms of deducing what shoppers want to buy for purposes of stocking their pantries. At least, I would hope they are -- we've been hearing about better data-mining techniques for years. Kraft obviously will promote a wait-and-see attitude in terms of the consumer and her reaction to the recession, but I don't think shareholders should be overly worried at this point. A lot of these defensive names have international exposure and stand to benefit from the falling dollar, for one thing. For another, we all have to eat! And since the defensive names generally have dividend yields, they tend to be safer bets during a recession; don't think they can't fall, though, because they can. One just hopes they don't fall as much as, say, your typical financial entity or a broad market index.
Disclosure: I own shares of Coca-Cola; positions can change at any time.
You know the old adage for success in the stock market -- buy low and sell high. Well unfortunately too many Americans today are doing the exact opposite as they seek coverage from a very volatile stock market. They bought when this market was near the top and are now selling in panic.
I prefer to watch two men who clearly know how to buy low and sell high -- Warren Buffett (also known as the "Oracle of Omaha" and Bill Miller, a very successful fund manager at Legg Mason, who is known for his 15-year winning streak against the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.
So are they selling or buying? Both are buying and buying big. According to Sunday's Washington Post, Buffett upped his stake in Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). He also took a new stake in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK). Buffett disclosed that he owns 132 million shares in Kraft, which means he owns 8.6% in the maker of Ritz crackers, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Maxwell House coffee.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) stock is falling this morning after the company announced its fourth-quarter profit fell to $585 million, or 38 cents a share, from $624 million a year earlier. Earnings excluding restructuring costs matched analysts' estimates of 44 cents a share, but KFT's revenue was hurt by higher costs for dairy products and other ingredients, which offset an 11% increase in sales. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on KFT.
After hitting a one-year high of $37.20 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $28.63 last week. This morning, KFT opened at $29.75. So far today the stock has hit a low of $29.51 and a high of $29.95. As of 10:50, KFT is trading at $29.90, down $0.29 (-1.0%). The chart for KFT looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in 5 months as long as KFT is below $35 at June expiration. Kraft would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.
Rachael Ray went from scraping together the rent as a candy counter girl to a multi-millionaire with her own talk show, cooking show(s), magazine, and books that have sold more than 4 million copies. She's also spawned a lingo all her own. (EVOO for Extra Virgin Olive Oil has entered the popular vernacular). All this in a little under ten years.
How cool is that?
Love her or hate her, Rachael Ray, she of the perky smile and Girl-next-door demeanor, gets major points for translating her love of cooking into a multi-million media empire. People can't seem to get enough of her "regular gal" persona. But her bubbly personality masks some serious business savvy.
Using her mentor Oprah Winfrey as a blueprint, Ray has expanded out of the kitchen this year into many other avenues. Her one-hour daytime talk show, The Rachel Ray Show, is patterned after the perennially popular Oprah Winfrey Show, and was the only syndicated daytime talk show launched in 2007 to be renewed. Her Food Network shows continue to be among the most popular on the channel.
She also cooked up some lucrative endorsement deals with name brands such as Dunkin Donuts and Nabisco -- now owned by Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT). These media venues help feed her magazine (Every Day with Rachel Ray) and cookbook sales.
These are like the cherry on top of the $16 million Ray took home this year, according to Forbes magazine. By some estimates, Ray's net worth is touching $100 million, but that's hard to verify. One thing's for sure, this gal doesn't need to get out of the kitchen; she's proving that she can stand the heat.
What is odd is that the newspaper noted that it was unclear if Buffett sided with activist investors Peltz and Icahn. This is somewhat amusing when you consider that Buffett invests his monies on a somewhat passive basis and does more voting type initiatives. He rarely steps in and demands that companies leverage their balance sheets or pursue rapid share buybacks for a short term boost. Those initiatives are usually risks to companies because the leverage can hurt on a long term basis. Buffett always looks at these matters in the long term, even if he only holds some of these passive investments for a few quarters.
If you can figure out an average price he paid, probably in the mid-$30s, you can bet that at that price the Oracle of Omaha was thinking there was long term value in Kraft. Based on a $1.80 estimate from First Call for 2007, Kraft trades at 18.8 times 2007 estimates after the 2% drop seen this morning. Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Raider Nelson Peltz bought a piece of Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT). The shares went up some and then settled back. He wants to streamline the company, sell off underperforming assets, and make better use of cash. That is pretty much a canned speech for Nelson and his peers.
Yesterday, Kraft's CEO said she she would meet with Nelson. He can share all of his plans, most of which have probably occurred to the board already.
At the same time the company announced that it would have the meeting, the press found out that Carl Icahn has a stake in the company. It's not clear yet what his plans are, but he probably did not buy shares because he likes the artwork on the stock certificates. Kraft jumped 3% late in the day on Friday.
The news put Kraft into a rare position. If Peltz and Icahn have different goals for the company, it may actually be easier to turn them both down. Kraft can't do everything for everyone. But, if the two old hands decide to take the same path to getting the company to cough up cash for a share buyback or special dividend, Kraft has a problem.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) opened at $34.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $34.54 and a high of $35.20. As of 10:50, KFT is trading at 34.89, down 0.64 (-1.8%).
After hitting a one year high of $37.20 in June, the stock has dropped down to test support around 35 over the past two weeks. The stock is slipping today after the company announced that it offered $7.2 billion in cash to acquire the biscuit division of French food company Groupe Danone SA (NYSE: DA). Recent technical indicators for KFT have been bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $37.50 range. KFT has not been above $37.50 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $36 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this relatively stable stock has had some serious resistance around $36 for much of the past year.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor control positions in KFT or DA.
Tomorrow morning, confectionary company Cadbury Schweppes plc (NYSE: CSG) will update its investors on a slate of issues that range from a spin-off of its U.S. drinks unit to taking austerity measures to cut costs. Cadbury is trying to recover from a salmonella scare last year, declines in its U.K. chocolate market share, and an increase in the cost of raw materials.
An overview of what could be discussed:
Sale of U.S. drinks business: The company is expected to announce a sale of its U.S. drinks business, which includes 7-Up and Snapple. The New York Times reported that it is currently unclear which bidder is in the lead for the unit - bids came from a group led by Cott, a consortium that included Thomas H. Lee Partners and TPG and a third consortium led by Blackstone Group and KKR. Other possible candidates for the unit could include The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) or Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (NYSE: TR), in a deal that could value the unit as high as $16B. Other sources believe Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE: KFT) and Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company (NYSE: WWY) could be potential bidders; Kraft, JP Morgan believes, would have an edge over Wrigley due to greater funding, flexibility and synergies.
While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting 
This post is part of a series on some of the most memorable 
This post is part of our 
Shares of the nation's largest food and beverage maker, 
You know the old adage for success in the stock market -- buy low and sell high. Well unfortunately too many Americans today are doing the exact opposite as they seek coverage from a very volatile stock market. They bought when this market was near the top and are now selling in panic.
Rachael Ray went from scraping together the rent as a candy counter girl to a multi-millionaire with her own talk show, cooking show(s), magazine, and books that have sold more than 4 million copies. She's also spawned a lingo all her own. (EVOO for Extra Virgin Olive Oil 
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