According to The Wall Street Journal, Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) plans on executing a nice buyback program for its stock. The company will repurchase perhaps as much as 10% of its shares over time. Also, earnings will probably come in near the top point of the previously stated range. So, should you rush in and invest in Campbell just because of this buyback?
My opinion: Probably not if you're looking to merely trade the name, but if you're looking to hold for the long term, you'll probably be all right. Although Campbell Soup's stock isn't near a 52-week low as of this writing, I notice that Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), and Kraft (NYSE: KFT) aren't too far from theirs. It's been a crazy time for the markets, and it amazes me that a stock like Coke isn't being perceived as a safe haven. I know there are some reasons out there for its weakness in terms of growth prospects and the like, but still, I've watched it drop quite a bit in very recent times (I own Coke), and I'm a bit surprised at its current price action considering the recession.
So, even though Campbell's buyback is great news for shareholders who already own the stock, I'm not sure I'd initiate a position myself. Although I am looking for stocks to buy, I just haven't been able to ignore the technical damage that's been inflicted upon the big averages by the bears and am reticent at putting new money to work in short-term trades. I think management might be doing the right thing with its buyback from a shareholder standpoint, but from a trading perspective, I would not be buying along with them.
Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.
Talk about a tough time in the markets. Between the financial crisis and oil prices rising on an almost daily basis, with the Fed damned if it raises rates and damned if it doesn't, the floods in the Midwest are now threatening to make a trip to the supermarket much more expensive. Yes, break out the coupons and pray for sales, because, according to The Wall Street Journal [subscription], food prices are destined for one direction: higher. That's because a lot of farmland has been damaged, throwing the supply-demand dynamic into chaos.
What does this mean for investors? Look for potential pressure on the stocks of companies such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), and Hershey (NYSE: HSY). I happen to own Coke, and I've heard the news reports talking about how higher corn prices will affect Coke and Pepsi because they use corn syrup as an ingredient for their sodas. It's also been pointed out by others that PepsiCo owns Frito-Lay, and since that company manufacturers salty snacks such as Doritos and Tostitos (I love them both), corn prices will also have an impact on that division.
If you're a trader, be wary. We might be in for a rough ride this summer with not only the stocks I've mentioned here, but in a general sense. Since I own Coke, I've been acutely aware of the pullback experienced in that stock as the external pressures surround it. As I write this, the stock is trading at $54.27. The shares were over $65 during their wonderful stay at the 52-week-high suite. So, yes, buyers with short-term mentalities must be wary. However, long-term investors should look upon any pullbacks as potential opportunities for some of these food-selling companies. If you don't intend to trade, then adding to a Coke or Pepsi position might make sense.
Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.
The history of General Foods can be traced back to the Postum Cereal Company, founded by Charles William Post, inventor of Postum and Grape Nuts, in 1895. Wall Street player E.F. Hutton in time became the chairman, and he initiated a series of acquisitions beginning in 1925: Jell-O, Minute Tapioca, Log Cabin, Hellmann, Calumet Baking Powder, and Birdseye. It was after the Birdseye acquisition in 1929 that the food conglomerate became General Foods.
Among General Foods' many product offerings were Sanka decaffinated coffee and the astronaut's favorite, Tang. General Foods also continued to make acquisitions, including the makers of Kool-Aid in 1953, the Burger Chef restaurant chain in 1968, and Oscar Mayer in 1981.
But late in 1985, General Foods was itself acquired by Philip Morris Cos., which later became Altria Group (NYSE: MO), in the largest non-oil acquisition to date. When Philip Morris acquired Kraft in 1988, the two food companies were merged. In 2007, Altria spun off Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), which now owns such former General Foods brands as Jell-O, Kool-Aid, and Maxwell House coffee. And it was announced in late 2007 that Post Cereals, including Grape Nuts, would be sold to Ralcorp Holdings (NYSE: RAH).
I love coupons; who doesn't? They are, arguably, one of the most important marketing tools used by companies such as Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS). I also love coupon distribution on the web, so I'm hoping a new technology reported on by BusinessWeek really takes off.
A company called Coupons, Inc. has developed a system dubbed Brandcaster. It essentially follows Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) model of monetization. Depending on where you are on the web and what you are looking at, the Brandcaster will determine if a coupon may be applicable to you. It will then try to get you to access the coupon and print it up. Web sites who use the application will be given a cut of revenues generated from successful coupon printings. So, speaking hypothetically, if I'm on a site that's dedicated to video games, maybe this Brandcaster thing will someday tell me that I can print up a coupon allowing me to get $5 off a new software title.
If this is promoted properly, and if the value to consumer companies can be adequately communicated, then I think Coupons, Inc. has a hit on its hands. Like I say, people love coupons, and I think they are more likely to act on printing out a coupon then they are to, say, buy a product immediately online through a banner ad. I see this kind of advertising as being more effective over the long-term than other kinds of ads.
Is there anything cooler than Kool-Aid? Kraft (NYSE: KFT) believes there is, my friends. In fact, Kraft thinks a healthier Kool-Aid is pretty darn hip!
According to this AP article, Kraft wants to position the Kool-Aid brand to health-conscious moms as a beverage that is okay for kids to consume. The food company will be adding vitamin E to one of the Kool-Aid varieties, and it has reformulated its sugar-free lineup to improve the taste. There's also a new Kool-Aid product on the market called Burstin' Waters that is supposed to be relatively healthy.
The company actually has been pretty good about trying to make its products not as junky. As the article states, Kraft introduced an initiative a few years back to create a set of nutritional guidelines that would aid the company in making its portfolio more in tune with the current zeitgeist; indeed, moms everywhere seem to be getting sick of putting sugary, fat-inducing foodstuffs into the stomachs of their kids. Of course, I'm sure kids still get away with eating junk at times (it's like an inalienable right of the youth); for the most part, though, consumer choices are shifting, and woe be the consumer-goods entity that does not respond. Just ask Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). Those two have been kicking it into high gear when it comes to alternatives to sugary carbonated sodas. Pepsi and Coke now offer all kinds of waters and enhanced beverages; in Pepsi's case, many of its salty-snack products are decidedly healthier. Coke purchased VitaminWater last year, and has been doing well with it. And with vitamins all the rage, Kraft would be smart to really promote the heck out of that vitamin-E addition.
Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL), a foodstuffs processor whose colleagues include ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), issued its Q2 numbers on Thursday. Revenues jumped 6% to $1.6 billion, although the growth rate was only 4% if you look at just the amount credited to organic appreciation. Net earnings per diluted share rose 14% to $0.56 per share. Volume jumped 5% altogether, and 3% based on, once again, organic growth.
This wasn't a bad earnings report for a major supermarket brand, although it certainly wasn't overly stimulating, either. So, you wanna take a guess as to by how much Hormel beat earnings expectations? If you said "by the proverbial penny," then you just might be a Wall Street junkie! Seems like so many companies got the penny-thing down pat. Anyway, Briefing.com not only said that earnings were better by a penny, but that revenues came in pretty much as expected.
Basically, Hormel is trying to navigate this inflationary environment as best it can. As we all know, it's pretty competitive out there in the grocery aisles even during prosperous periods. But take a look at the cash-flow statement and you'll see that the company did pretty well in terms of net cash from operations. That metric soared almost 30% over the six-month period. Only problem is, not too much was left over after capital expenditures and dividend payments were taken into account. Still, Hormel seems reasonably fine for now on the cash-flow front.
I'm not necessarily interested in Hormel's stock at this time. If I wanted to get in, I certainly would look to pick up shares at a higher yield; there are better opportunities out there for dividend yield, in my opinion. As Joseph Lazzaro observed a couple months back, Hormel is definitely an interesting defensive name during challenging economic times, and I did enjoy the double-digit bottom-line growth. I just think investors would be better off if this one came down a bit in terms of share price.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Learning Tree, Shengdatech and Cepheid were today's noteworthy initiations:
B. Riley initiated Learning Tree (NASDAQ:LTRE) with a Buy rating and $24 target. The firm believes investors have an opportunity to invest in a compelling revenue growth/margin expansion story at reasonable multiples with the stock off recent highs.
Merriman started Shengda Tech (NASDAQ:SDTH) with a Buy rating and points to the company's growing nano-particle business and the vast market expansion opportunities associated with this business.
Stephens believes Cepheid (NASDAQ:CPHD) possesses a best-in-class platform for molecular diagnostic testing with a virtual monopoly in the molecular point of care market; shares were assumed with an Overweight rating and $32 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Visa (NYSE:V) was started at Morgan Keegan with a Market Perform rating.
Morgan Stanley initiated Dr. Pepper Snapple (N YSE:DPS) with an Equal Weight rating and $30 target.
Goldman initiated Kraft Foods (NYSE:KFT) with a Neutral rating.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
While Kraft Foods Inc.'s (NYSE: KFT) Oscar Mayer brand and ConAgra Food Inc.'s (NYSE: CAG) Hebrew National may both have venerable histories, they also have very different personalities: "I wish I were and Oscar Mayer wiener" vs. "We answer to a higher authority."
In 1900, Oscar Mayer and his brothers ran one of the most popular sausage makers in Chicago. They pioneered the use of brand names and voluntary federal approval to protect the reputation of their products. The company was the first to offer packaged sliced bacon. Such innovations helped Oscar Mayer to become an industry leader. The first wiener-mobile rolled out in 1936, and its descendants can still be spotted today. The famous Oscar Mayer jingle was introduced in 1963, and today is one of the longest-running jingles still in use. In 1988 the company launched its Lunchables, prepacked cracker-and-cold-cut school lunches. Oscar Mayer became a Kraft Foods brand in 1989.
Kraft Foods is the largest U.S. food company, with $37.2 billion in sales in 2007. Oscar Mayer is one of seven Kraft Foods brands with more than $1 billion in revenue. The convenience meats category accounted for about 16% of total revenue.
Cereal maker Kellogg (NYSE: K) issued its Q1 earnings today, and while it may not have been the most exciting event on Earth, it did beat expectations, according to Briefing.com.
The strong dollar benefited the top line, as net sales increased 10% (stripping out the effect of the strong dollar yields a top-line growth rate closer to 5%). Operating profit advanced 9%. Unfortunately, not much was happening on the bottom line -- earnings per diluted share only gained a penny, coming in at $0.81 (there was a better tax situation in last year's similar quarter, however). Not much took place in the area of cash flow either -- free cash flow declined to $181 million; last year at this time, the breakfast guru reported $289 million in free cash.
Still, Kellogg's management seems pretty confident in the company's future prospects as it saw fit to bestow a 10% dividend increase on shareholders. And going back to the expectations game, earnings came in $0.05 more than expected -- that's excellent. Kellogg, like General Mills (NYSE: GIS) and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), is a great idea for long-term dollar-cost-averaging and dividend-reinvesting (love those hyphenates!). Just don't expect tech-like growth, and do expect bumps along the way, especially with commodity prices acting as they have been.
Disclosure: I own none of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Priceline.com, Monster and Internap were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Susquehanna downgraded Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) to Neutral from Positive as they believe upside may be difficult given the macro environment, competition, and currency headwinds.
JP Morgan lowered Monster (NASDAQ: MNST) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's expectations for higher 1Q08 operating expenses.
Internap (NASDAQ: INAP) was downgraded by Merriman to Neutral from Buy as they believe upside will be limited until the company can complete its integration of the VitalStream CDN acquisition.
Oh man, the news coming from the Fed seems to get worse and worse. On a day when financials like Citigroup (NYSE: C) continue to weaken -- Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) reduced Citi's outlook -- Fed head Ben Bernanke sends the market indication that we are not yet near the end of the mortgage debacle, and he is looking for a "vigorous response" to address it.
According to an AP article, Bernanke, in an address to a banking group, stated that the mortgage crisis was not done, and that more relief would be necessary for homeowners who simply are unable to balance their books. This isn't what anyone on Wall Street wanted to hear, and certainly not what an individual investor like myself was looking for, either; I have ample financial exposure in the form of MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) and Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT).
Further, Bernanke made a suggestion that bankers would obviously find tough to implement -- he said that a reduction in loan principal might be an appropriate way to relieve a struggling owner of real estate. Hmmm, that might not go over too well, especially with the crowd that isn't happy with government intervention -- now Bernanke is calling for lenders to be more lenient? But, what should one expect? This is the Fed, after all, and it's the institution's job to promote some economic homeostasis in times of need. Bernanke believes more foreclosures are coming, and he wants to get ideas out there that will save as much home equity as possible. He brings up a good point, implying that lenders will benefit from loan-principal reductions simply because the rate of foreclosures would, in theory, decline as a result of such a tactic.
Throughout his career, Warren Buffett has generally -- and wisely -- refrained from making broad economic predictions, instead applying a bottom-up approach to his analysis.
But that doesn't stop the Oracle of Omaha from calling a spade a spade and, speaking on CNBC this morning, Buffett said that the United States economy is in a recession even if it doesn't technically meet the criteria. He said that the economy is in a recession "by any commonsense definition."
Economists define a recession as being two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
It's worth noting, however, that his grim assessment of the current state of the economy aside, he continues to invest aggressively in stocks he believes are undervalued. Last month, he became the largest shareholder in Kraft (NYSE: KFT) and also picked up shares of GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK).
The point is that investors seeking to emulate Buffett probably shouldn't be scared away from stocks by broad macroeconomic trends. Recession or no, Warren Buffett invests zealously in companies he believes in.
Everyone loves ketchup (well, then again, I'm sure there are a few out there who don't). But should everyone love Heinz's (NYSE: HNZ) latest earnings missive?
I say the earnings were respectable, if not utterly spectacular, in the third quarter. The top line moved up a robust 14% to $2.6 billion in sales; operating income increased 8%. The bottom line, however, was, eh, okay -- $0.68 per diluted share for this Q3 versus $0.66 per diluted share for last year's Q3. A two-penny increase isn't a reason to party, I suppose. Then again, Heinz isn't one of those companies that inspire you to throw a party upon an earnings release. Like Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), it's a consumer foodstuffs name backed by a portfolio of well-known brands that people gravitate toward every day in supermarkets across the globe.
Here's the thing about Heinz, however: it sports a yield of approximately 3.3%, and it is in the middle of a tight 52-week range. That is definitely an attractive situation for the stock. Heinz is being perceived as a safe, recession-proof play. I'm not sure anything is truly recession-proof, but I do think the yield is impressive, and I think that such a stock may continue to hold steady, and even outperform, in this environment.
You know the old adage for success in the stock market -- buy low and sell high. Well unfortunately too many Americans today are doing the exact opposite as they seek coverage from a very volatile stock market. They bought when this market was near the top and are now selling in panic.
I prefer to watch two men who clearly know how to buy low and sell high -- Warren Buffett (also known as the "Oracle of Omaha" and Bill Miller, a very successful fund manager at Legg Mason, who is known for his 15-year winning streak against the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.
So are they selling or buying? Both are buying and buying big. According to Sunday's Washington Post, Buffett upped his stake in Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). He also took a new stake in GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK). Buffett disclosed that he owns 132 million shares in Kraft, which means he owns 8.6% in the maker of Ritz crackers, Philadelphia cream cheese, and Maxwell House coffee.