Merrill downgraded Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Neutral from Buy and expects marketing and promotional spending to limit earnings growth in 2009 and 2010. The firm lowered their target to $35 from $42.
Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley to reflect declining coal demand.
Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Underperform from Market Perform on liquidity concerns given the Legg Mason's leveraged balance sheet and falling EBITDA. The firm lowered their target to $7 from $11.
Supervalu (NYSE: SVU), whose competitors include Kroger (NYSE: KR), Safeway (NYSE: SWY), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), reported results for its fiscal second quarter. Net sales unfortunately didn't budge much at all. They came in essentially flat at $10.2 billion. Earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.61. According to this article, the expectations were for $0.69 per share. So, as can be seen, Supervalu lost the analyst-expectations game by a wide margin. Last year's adjusted earnings were $0.64 per share. Not only are those numbers disappointing, but comps saw a decrease of over 1%. And the gross margin suffered as well.
So, we have an earnings miss, flat revenue growth, and a decline in the bottom line. What does all that add up to in terms of market reaction? The stock sees a bid. At the time I began writing this piece, it was up 2.5%. As I found with Kroger, the market may be looking at supermarket businesses as defensive plays. Of course, at the time I covered Kroger, that company's numbers were a lot better than Supervalu's.
However, last time I checked the stock before sending this piece in, it was becoming more volatile along with the market, moving from green to red in quick succession. Given the weak data, I can't say that I'd be considering Supervalu right now. It is true that people will continue to shop at supermarkets even during economic downturns, but I'd rather look at something the supermarket sells as opposed to the supermarket itself to get defensive. I'd rather align my portfolio with the stronger brand equity of perhaps a Kraft (NYSE: KFT) or a Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) than a Supervalu.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
I'll be honest. I'm not necessarily into the supermarket sector, so I've never strongly considered a company like Kroger (NYSE: KR) for my portfolio. Plus, we live in a Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) world, and with that retail giant trying its best to take aim at food shoppers with its own brand, I just was never into owning a Kroger. I do have to say, though, that I am wondering if Kroger might end up being a defensive stock in the current market environment. Although it has been down the last month or so, the stock has done well over longer timeframes, according to the AOL Finance snapshot taken at the time of this writing. It's been up over 5% year-to-date, and over 16% during the six-month period. And it is up over 6% today, as of 1:30 pm, on the company's Q2 numbers.
Net sales revenues increased almost 12%. The bottom line saw net income of $0.42 per diluted share. That was a solid 10% increase, and according to Earnings.com, Kroger beat estimates by one penny. Same-store sales increased a decent 4.7% excluding the effect of fuel sales. It's pretty important to exclude fuel sales, especially with the price of oil declining rapidly. With fuel, comps were up nearly 10%. Operational cash flow was flat at $2.1 billion, but it more than covered capital expenditures, dividend obligations, and share repurchases.
Kroger seems to be a healthy company at the moment. And, again, the stock seems to be working, too. Could this business be a defensive play? It sure looks like it. I wouldn't chase it today, however. I'd wait for a pullback and consider pulling the trigger after further due diligence.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Last week's preview raised the question of whether consumers were turning to comfort foods in these uncertain times, specifically in terms of second quarter earnings of Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) and Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD). Campbell's strong earnings growth topped expectations, while Krispy Kreme narrowed its loss, though it fell short of estimates.
This coming week should bring reports from more food-related companies, from cereal maker General Mills and food packager CongAgra to grocery chain Kroger, to the parent companies of restaurants Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Carl's Jr., and Hardees. Also look for reports from tech-related companies such as Oracle, Adobe, and Palm, as well as from financials Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and from economic bellwether FedEx.
Here's what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from some of the companies reporting earnings this week, as compared to their results from the same period of last year:
Kroger (NYSE: KR) is one of the nation's largest retail grocery chains. It operates nearly 2,500 supermarkets and multi-department stores in 31 states, under such local banners as Kroger, Ralphs, Fred Meyer, Fry's, Dillons, QFC and City Market. The firm also operates about 778 convenience stores, 392 fine jewelry stores, 723 supermarket fuel centers and 41 food processing plants. Despite diversification moves, Kroger food stores still account for about 85 percent of sales. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) are major competitors.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 58 cents and revenues of $23.11 billion. Analysts had been expecting 55 cents and $22.32 billion. The EPS figure was a company record. Management also offered in-line guidance for FY09 earnings and said that about $643.6 million remained under the $1 billion stock repurchase program announced in January.
If you are a Kroger (NYSE: KR) shopper and you think that you may have picked up some beef from the grocer recently, you may want to take a closer look at it, as reports of E. coli have prompted a recall from the grocery chain.
The recall involves beef products that were purchased between May 21 and June 8 in Michigan, and parts of the Ohio market. Kroger was forced to take this action following reports that there had been E. coli illnesses linked to beef sold in Kroger stores in the two locations.
So far, it looks as though there have been 19 reported cases in Michigan, and another 15 cases reported in the state of Ohio that can be linked back to the Kroger beef. The meat in question has been traced back to a Kroger store in Gahanna, a town in central Ohio. It does not look as though any stores in Michigan have definitely been linked to the tainted meat, but since there are reported cases of the disease in the area, you should definitely return any beef that you purchased from Kroger during the time frame in question.
On Tuesday, both Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), the nation's largest traditional grocer, and casual dining chain operator Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE: DRI) reported better-than-expected profit increases.
Cincinnati-based Kroger Co. said first-quarter profits rose 15% from the year-ago quarter to $386 million, or 58 cents per share, due in part to discounts on food, gas, and drugs that drew in budget-strapped consumers. For the quarter ended May 24, revenue climbed 12% to $23.11 billion.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a earnings of 55 cents a share on revenue of $22.32 billion.
Kroger also reported that same-store sales rose 5.8%, excluding fuel, and 9.2% including fuel sales.
The company offered fiscal-year earnings guidance of $1.85 to $1.90 per share, compared to the analysts' forecast of $1.90 per share.
Kroger shares rose $1.82 Tuesday to $27.82, then fell in after-hours trading. The shares have risen 10.2% in the past three months.
If you were looking for help from the economic front or from the oil patch today to help out the market, that wasn't in the cards. Home prices plunged by a record 15.3% from may 2007 to May 2008. Consumer confidence also came in at a 16-year low. From bottom to top to bottom we had more than a 150 point trading range in the DJIA today. These are the unofficial closing levels:
Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) saw a sharp rise with shares up 15% at $4.20 late in the day after the company announced a large IRS refund and a $1 billion buyback to retire close to half of its stock.
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) hit the 52-week low list and a multi-year low earlier today before recovering list after the FDA delayed a decision on its anti-clot blood thinning drug, with shares down some 1.5% at $46.87 in the final minutes today.
Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) saw shares rise a sharp 7% with shares at $27.88 in the final minutes today after the company raised guidance.
Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS) saw shares up after the company raised its own guidance again. Its shares were only up 0.5% at $73.85 in the final minutes of the trading day. Shares were up over 5% at the start.
United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) saw a drop after the company came clean and fessed up that high fuel prices and low demand for premium delivery services were hurting business domestically and abroad. Shares were down 6% at $62.26 late in the day.
Though the quarter is winding down, there are still earnings reports to come, including Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG) and Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR). Both companies are expected to report profit growth this coming week.
Walgreen is expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to report third-quarter earnings of 59 cents per share, up 6.8% from the same period of last year, on revenue of $15.1 billion. The company has provided positive surprises in four of the past five quarters -- by two cents in the previous quarter.
Based in Deerfield, Ill., Walgreen is the largest drug store chain in the U.S. in terms of sales, and has more than 6,200 stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. In the past year, the company's revenues were $53.7 billion and its net income totaled $2.0 billion. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 14.0%, which is less than the retail industry average, as well as less than that of rival CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS). The consensus recommendation of analysts has recently shifted from hold to buy Walgreen.
The share price is up 4.0% since the beginning of the year, and up from 11.6% from a year ago. It trades at a P/E ratio of 20.68. Shares closed Friday at $41.35.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Fiserv, Arbitron and Anadarko Petroleum were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JMP Securities upgraded Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) to Outperform from Market Perform citing a reversal of the Bank of America in-house risk, potential re-branding initiatives, and relative pricing stability.
Bear upgraded Arbitron (NYSE: ARB) to Outperform from Peer Perform citing PPM earnings growth potential, strong industry position, defensive nature of shares, and it views the company as an acquisition target.
Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to its Conviction Buy List.
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Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
