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Applied Materials' upside surprise

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

Applied Materials reports abysmal results -- not an interesting value play

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.

They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.

Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.

Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?

Continue reading Applied Materials reports abysmal results -- not an interesting value play

Marketwatch technician is 'in the chips'

"The August lows now represent important technical levels defining the U.S. markets' primary uptrend," notes Michael Ashbaugh. The editor of The Marketwatch Technical Indicator explains, "Specifically, the S&P 500's August low holds at 1,427 while the Nasdaq's August low holds at 2,492. In addition, the Dow's August low holds at 13,134.

Ashbaugh continues, "For the Nasdaq and the S&P, a break below those levels would mark a failed test of support, also placing each index under its 200-day moving average. And if the breakdown were decisive, the primary trend would likely turn lower.

Yet "as ugly" as the current backdrop looks, he contends, from a strictly technical standpoint, the primary uptrend still has the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, he suggests, we continue to find some names that are well positioned technically. These, he says, are intended as radar screen names - sectors or stocks positioned to move near term. In this light, the technician sees ongoing strength among chip-equipment names.

Ashbaugh says, "Each of these names broke out decisively in mid-July. Since then, Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) have pulled in, establishing support around the breakout point. Further, he adds, Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) and Varian Semiconductor (NASDAQ: VSEA) are the group's strongest names, knifing even higher after the initial breakout, despite a down market."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

This week's rumor round-up: Lam Research close to sale?

Heading to Memorial Day, there's certainly no moratorium on the number of talked about potential deals. Receiving a fair amount of attention over the last few days include the companies below. There's more, of course, but hey, it's a three-day weekend.

LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION (NASDAQ: LRCX)

This supplier of tools that makes microchips keeps seeing its stock move up. Up about 13% over the last few months. And it may be more than speculation that it will soon be acquired. Investors looking for a deal are snapping up equity calls, some are then selling them, and keeping both eyes on the stock price. Others are looking out to see which private equity firms or "strategic" buyers come calling.

AMDOCS LIMITED (NYSE: DOX)

As Alltel Corporation (NYSE: AT) goes, so goes Amdocs? Well, not quite. Yes the Alltel sale has pushed Amdocs' stock upward. Some say this maker of software products for telecom services firms may want to continue to go forward by themselves. But that hasn't stopped that list of potential buyers from being passed around. Best bet: International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM).

CIRCUIT CITY STORES (NYSE: CC)

Again, here we go: Is it going to take a buyout? (Read: private equity buyer.) Or a miracle? (Read: new management) There are profit warnings. (Read: red flags everywhere) The stock is in miserable shape. (Read: cheap) Tough competition. (Read: Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE: WMT)). Think there's a book to be written about all of this? (Read: who'd want to?).

APPLEBEE'S INTERNATIONAL INC (NASDAQ: APPB)

Food for thought. Kangaroo Holdings wants to buy OSI Restaurant Partners Inc (NYSE: OSI). Not surprisingly, Applebee's stock goes up. Are they cooking up a sale price for themselves as they "evaluate" offers? You betcha.

PALM INC (NASDAQ: PALM)

Going, going...almost gone. Even we're beginning to tire of this one. But it never gets old if you like to watch. Now, they're canceling conferences. The CEO is selling shares. The CFO has a bad back. Come on! The latest product review - Palm Treo 755p - is terrible. Market share is going down the tubes. R&D? Forgetaboutit. Sound like a company on the go? Right. Right into someone else's lap. And to think what they once were. Great job all around, everybody.

Analyst upgrades 4-12-07: DWA, KFT, PEP & VOD upgraded today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kraft Foods, Inc (KFT), Healthways, Inc (HWAY), PepsiCo (PEP) and Lam Research Corp (LRCX) were some of today's more noteworthy upgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Kraft Foods Inc (NYSE: KFT) to Equal Weight from Underweight on valuation. UBS upgraded shares to Buy from Neutral on expectations the company may benefit from a purchase of Cadbury Schweppes' (CSG) confectionary unit; UBS believes Kraft could purchase Cadbury's confectionery unit for $20.8B and still see 7% accretion in 2008.
  • Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs upgraded Healthways Inc (NASDAQ: HWAY) to Neutral from Sell on valuation.
  • Bernstein raised PepsiCo's (NYSE: PEP) rating to Outperform from Market Perform with a $77 target, expecting the soft-drink maker to outperform rival Coca-Cola (KO) by more than 10% over the next year.
  • Citigroup upgraded Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ: LRCX) to Hold from Sell to reflect a more bullish 2-3 year memory capex view and the firm believes customers of Samsung/Hynix continue to have an upward bias.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst initiations 2-13-07: WebMD, ConAgra Foods initiated today

MOST NOTEWORTHY: WebMD Health Corp (WBMD) was today's only noteworthy initiation:
  • William Blair started the online health information portal, WebMD Health Corp (NASDAQ: WBMD) with an Outperform rating. The firm believes WebMD is positioned to benefit from various trends in the industry, including the increasing use of the Internet for information and patients' assuming more responsibility for their health care decisions.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Pacific Growth initiated United Therapeutics Corp (NASDAQ: UTHR) with a Neutral rating. The firm sees potential revenue risk from patient switching and reduced new patient starts in response to reports about higher incidence of serious Gram negative infections resulting in a Dear Doctor letter being sent to all IV-Remodulin prescribers in September 2006.
  • Soleil Securities started Genuine Parts Co (NYSE: GPC) with a Buy rating and $65 target, noting that Genuine has the highest yield in the auto sector.
  • Nollenberger doesn't see a catalyst for double-digit growth in Lam Research Corp (NASDAQ: LRCX) for the next 12-18 months and initiated the company with a Neutral rating and $40 target.
  • ConAgra Foods Inc (NYSE: CAG) was initiated with a Hold rating at AG Edwards on valuation.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst downgrades 1-18-07: Apple faces gravity

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple Inc (AAPL) and Lam Research (LRCX) were today's most notable downgrades:
  • Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) was downgraded by two firms today:
    • JP Morgan downgraded Apple Inc to Neutral from Overweight as they believe outperformance will be difficult given the Mac shipment miss in the first quarter; the broker also noted they have had an Overweight rating since October 2004 and the stock has appreciated strongly in that time.
    • JMP Securities also downgraded shares of Apple to Outperform from Strong Buy, citing valuation.
  • Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) was downgraded by both Bear Stearns and CIBC:
    • Bear Stearns downgraded Lam Research to Peer Perform from Outperform to reflect shipment delays in the quarter, as they believe delays typically serve as a good leading indicator for deteriorating environments.
    • CIBC downgraded Lam Research to Sector Performer from Outperformer, with a $46 target. CIBC said management's 2007 outlook confirmed their 2007 thesis for a 10%-20% stock correction based on a retrenchment in DRAM orders.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Sell from Neutral, with a$21 target, after the company named Joe Campanelli its permanent CEO. Merrill believes Sovereign now has a reduced chance of a takeover to go along with deteriorating fundamentals.
  • Goldman Sachs downgraded Progressive Corp (NYSE: PGR) to Sell from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

The right portfolio moves after the election -- what top mutual fund managers are doing

Wondering whether you should consider some shifts in your portfolio now that the Democrats have control of Congress? You may want to watch the moves of mutual fund managers to get some clues about which types of stocks might gain and which may lose with the shift of power in Washington.

MarketWatch gave its readers an excellent overview of winners and losers expected after that the Democrats control the House based on interviews with some key mutual fund managers. Many managers expect that the big losers will be defense and some parts of the health industry. Big gainers could be Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because the Democrats are less likely to put caps on their growth.

Republicans pressured Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to slow their growth and hold fewer mortgages on their balance sheets. That pressure will likely ease under Democratic control. John Schneider, portfolio manager of Touchstone Large Cap Value Fund (TLCAX) told Marketwatch, "We see substantial upside now for each company's earnings and stock prices. As new money comes in, we're anticipating adding to existing positions in both."

Continue reading The right portfolio moves after the election -- what top mutual fund managers are doing

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 12, 2012: 12:30 AM

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