Analyst Upgrades

• Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
• Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
• William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.

Disney's (DIS) Alice in Wonderland was the number-one picture over the three-day weekend. No surprise, necessarily, as the rank wasn't the true question mark. The question, in my mind at least, was exactly how much the film would take in during its debut. Would it go beyond expectations? Would it capture the top spot with a paltry $45 million?

I believe it's safe to say Alice came through for the Mouse. According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, the project took in $116 million from domestic multiplexes. Brooklyn's Finest, distributed by Liberty Capital Group's (LCAPA) Overture Films, placed second with $13 million -- not that great, but the budget was only $25 million on this one, so we'll have to see if word of mouth brings the grosses up to a financially appropriate level (besides, The Wrap indicated that it only cost Overture maybe less than $3 million for the rights).

In its second weekend out in the domestic theatrical marketplace, Viacom's (VIA) Shutter Island thriller, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, demonstrated that it has some resilience. This is good news, considering the budget on the film is a healthy $80 million.

Island made $22.6 million, according to Box Office Mojo. The cumulative gross so far for the flick is better than $75 million. Viacom beat out Time Warner's (TWX) new entry Cop Out, directed by Kevin Smith, and horror picture The Crazies, a remake of a George Romero project from the early 1970s, which is distributed by Liberty Capital Group's (LCAPA) Overture Films.

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), a business centered on music concerts, one that counts Madonna and U2 among its portfolio of artists, promoted its fourth-quarter numbers earlier in the week. After browsing the data, and considering comments on guidance, I'm not sure I would want to buy the stock, even after seeing that it closed on Friday at a 52-week high.

According to BusinessWeek, Live Nation booked an operating loss of $64 million during the three-month period (adjusted operating income was positive, however). Sales went down well over 4%. Free cash flow for the full year, though, as detailed in a table right at the beginning of the press release, came in at nearly $59 million. That table also provides financial information for Ticketmaster, which recently merged with Live Nation.

Analyst Upgrades

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Jefferies (JEF) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and improved M&A advisory and underwriting prospects. The firm has a $30 target on the shares.
• JPMorgan upgraded Cosan (CZZ) to overweight from neutral based on valuation.The firm has a $10 target on shares.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded CTC Media (CTCM) to buy from hold, citing better-than-expected operational performance and the impact of recent ad law changes. The firm has a $17 target on shares.

Last week, I discussed my disappointment with Disney's (DIS) A Christmas Carol. As a shareholder of the Mouse, I remain dissatisfied with the performance. However, this past weekend's theatrical take of the film makes me a little happier.

According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Carol scored about $22 million at domestic theaters, making it the second most popular film of the three-day period. Sure, it wasn't number one, but given the fact that Carol made $30 million last weekend, I'd say you have to give it some credit for avoiding a significant percentage drop. So far, it has generated more than $60 million in revenue.

Disney (DIS) had high hopes for A Christmas Carol. It was supposed to be an unqualified blockbuster. Unfortunately, the film's first weekend at the box office was nothing short of a disaster.

Too strong? Hardly. According to early estimates at Box Office Mojo, Carol took in little more than $30 million at domestic screenings. It was wasn't supposed to be like this. Carol was supposed to be light-years ahead of the competition. Sony's (SNE) Michael Jackson's This Is It came in second. The Men Who Stare at Goats, distributed by Liberty Capital Group's (LCAPA) Overture Films, was third. And The Fourth Kind, from General Electric's (GE) Universal, is currently ranked, aptly enough, in fourth place. Each of the latter three pictures had a gross of somewhere between $12 million and $14 million. To me, Carol's take didn't seem as disproportionate as it should have been.

Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Where the Wild Things Are was number one over the past weekend at domestic theaters as of early estimates from Box Office Mojo. The film grossed well over $30 million. Coming in second was Law Abiding Citizen. If Wild Things wasn't in the market this weekend, that one definitely would have been tops at the multiplex. The revenge fest, from Liberty Capital Group's (NASDAQ: LCAPA) Overture Films, brought in $21 million.

Right on the heels of that project is the very cheaply made Paranormal Activity, courtesy of Viacom (NYSE: VIA). It made about $20 million. So far, Activity has generated over $30 million in total. And they say the little horror extravaganza cost less than $20,000 to produce!

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations that derivatives trading will increase in the coming quarters.
• NutriSystem (NASDAQ: NTRI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Janney Montgomery, which believes that the company's earnings have hit bottom, while the company could report better-than-expected Q1 results.
• Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital. The firm thinks the company is an early-cycle story that has significant upside potential.
• UBS upgraded Walgreen (NYSE: WAG) to Buy from Neutral citing cost cutting efforts and slowing store growth.
• Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Benchmark Co.
• Safeway (NYSE: SWY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold by BB&T.
• Needham upgraded Targacept (NASDAQ: TRGT) to Buy from Hold.
• Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ: SWIR) was raised to Buy from Hold at Jesup & Lamont.

• Jefferies upgraded HMS Holdings (NASDAQ: HMSY) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe the recent weakness provides an attractive entry point. The firm keeps a $36 price target on shares.
  
• Credit Suisse believes Universal Health (NYSE: UHS) is well positioned to gain market share, that earnings risk from the Las Vegas market is manageable, and that the balance sheet provides flexibility. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral and raised their target to $48 from $46.
  
• UBS upgraded RF Micro (NASDAQ: RFMD) to Buy from Neutral citing checks that indicate strengthening momentum, impact from recent restructuring, and expected debt reduction. The analyst raised RFMD estimates above consensus and upped the price target to $3 from $1.10.
• Liberty Capital (NASDAQ: LCAPA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was raised to Hold from Sell at Soleil.
  
• SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was lifted at Keefe Bruyette to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Colonial Bancgroup (NYSE: CNB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the recent weakness and believes the company will be eligible to receive TARP funds. Morgan Stanley believes the company's valuation adequately reflects risk to the loan portfolio; the firm raised shares to Equal Weight from Underweight.
• Merrill upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Underperform and believes their valuation reflects the worst-case for bad news.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Trimble Navigation to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the company's long-term growth story is intact.
• Celestica (NYSE: CLS) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
• KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Wachovia raised EastGroup Properties (NYSE: EGP) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• UBS cut Barclays (NYSE: BCS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe capital raises could negatively impact earnings and that the dividend is likely to be cut.
• JP Morgan downgraded Discovery Holdings (NASDAQ: DISCA) to Underweight from Neutral based on valuation and the deteriorating economic outlook.
• Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowered its target to $7 from $23 as they see further risk to the downside following the company's weaker-than-expected results.
• LKQ Corp (NASDAQ: LKQX) was cut to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital.
• Affymetrix (NASDAQ: AFFX) was lowered to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• RightNow Tech (NASDAQ: RNOW) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform.

FT.com reports that Liberty Media Corp (NASDAQ: LCAPA) and EarthLink (NASDAQ: ELNK) may enter the bidding for AOL's dial-up internet access operation (which shares a parent, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), with BloggingStocks). Liberty thinks its advantage is its ability to do a "tax efficient transaction."

Meanwhile Liberty's stake in Time Warner is worth just slightly more than the price tag Time Warner has placed on AOL's dial up unit. As FT.com wrote, "Liberty Media's 103m shareholding in Time Warner was valued at $1.64bn last night, slightly above analysts' $1.5bn valuation of AOL's access business."

Liberty's interest is new but industry analysts have seen EarthLink as "the only likely strategic buyer for AOL's dial-up business." FT.com notes that Rolla Huff, EarthLink's CEO, "told the Wall Street Journal this month that a deal for AOL's access business was something 'worth aggressively pursuing'."

MAJOR PAPERS:

• Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) could announce a capital infusion of several billion dollars from outside investors as early as Monday, people familiar with the matter said. While final terms of the deal are still being worked on, the Wall Street Journal reported that the bank is expected to receive between $6B-$7B, in return the investor group would receive shares priced at roughly $23-$24 per share.
• According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) is seeking to sell as much as $20B in debt to a 'collection of investors,' which include private-equity firms.

• The Telegraph reported that Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LCAPA) is said to be considering a bid for Virgin Media Inc's (NASDAQ: VMED) television channels.
• The UK Times wrote that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) will demoralize Wall Street this week with revelations of write-downs of $15B.

Barry Diller has won his dispute with John Malone. Malone's Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LCAPA) owns a a large piece of the company that Diller runs, IAC/Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI). Diller has the right to vote those shares under a long-standing agreement.

Diller has decided to break IACI into five companies because the businesses in the firm do not have significant relationships to one another. Malone wanted to block the break-up and filed suit in court.

According to MarketWatch, "Vice Chancellor Stephen Lamb ruled Friday that "Liberty has failed to demonstrate that Diller has breached or threatened to breach any contractual duty he owes to Liberty," according to Lamb's 78-page opinion."

Diller can now complete his plans.

That leaves open the question of whether IACI is worth more in pieces than it is as a conglomerate. The firm's stock trades at $20, near its 52-week low and down from the period high of over $39. Some of the company's divisions, especially Lending Tree and HSN had tough years in 2007. These would get very low valuations as independent operations and might not make up for the value of more attractive operations like Ask.com

Diller may have gotten his way, but it is not clear that it will help shareholders.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that an investor group that includes Harbinger Capital Partners is expected to report a raised stake in The New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT). The raised stake is expected to be close to matching the 19% stake owned by the Sulzberger family.
• The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) has been spared many of the problems of the subprime mortgage crisis, but other areas where it's involved, such as investment banking and leveraged loans, are hurting the firms profitability, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) is seeking to put a valuation on its Rainbow Media unit, in order to possibly sell it, sources say. In the past, the unit, which consists of several cable channels, has been valued at $3B, but the Dolan family is hoping to obtain a higher price, according to the New York Post. Possible buyers include Liberty Media Corporation (NASDAQ: LCAPA) and News Corporation (NYSE: NWS).
• Elan Corporation (NYSE: ELN) is considering splitting its biopharmaceuticals arm, which markets Tysabri, from its drug technology division, the Sunday Times noted. The potential spin-off could unlock up to $1.5B to share holders.