Increasing demand for solar energy and solar products proved to be a boon for Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) and LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) as both companies reported Wednesday that their earnings soared in the third quarter. Investors were not impressed, however, pushing shares lower.
Trina Solar, a maker of solar photovoltaic products, said its net income quadrupled to $32.1 million, or $1.17 per American Depository Share, from the same period of the previous year. These results included a foreign currency exchange loss of $4.9 million. Revenue more than tripled to $290.7 million.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, on average, had expected a profit of $1.21 per share on revenue of $276.9 million.
However, the company lowered its full-year 2008 revenue estimate to range between $800 and $850 million because the company expects fewer product shipments for the year than previously forecast.
Shares of Trina Solar fell to a 52-week low of $6.81 Wednesday. The share price is 86.8% lower than a year ago.
General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler executive will return to Congress on Wednesday. After facing less than a receptive Senate Tuesday, they will appear before a House committee today to plead for a "bridge loan" to give them a massive infusion of cash they need to stay afloat in their race against the clock. GM's CEO Wagoner "warned that the failure of the U.S. auto industry could lead to a loss of 3 million jobs within the first year and ripple throughout communities around the country," saying it would be a "catastrophic collapse." GM shares traded 2.9% lower and Ford's 2.4% lower in premarket action (8:04 am). GM shares have been plunging over 15% by midday trading and Ford's by nearly 25% as Senate lowers bailout expectations, seeking to compromise.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) is delaying jet deliveries by as much as 10 weeks as it attempts to recover from a strike by its machinists, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. BA shares were down 2.6%, with the market, by midday trading.
Toyota (NYSE: TM) -- The troubles in the auto industry don't affect just American carmakers.Toyota said Wednesday it will reduce production in the U.S. to cope with slowing sales there. It will stop production at all its plants in the U.S. and Canada for two extra days next month, and cut about half of 500 temporary workers at a plant in Georgetown, Kentucky by March. It will also reduce production of two models. TM shares were down 4% by midday trading.
Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.
Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.
Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.
Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.
I don't think I've ever written a positive word on JASO as they are in the middle tier, essentially a jobber for the solar space. The company make various feedstock products to the final product makers, while being dependent on the core technology and "root" feedstock polysilicon from the likes of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) and MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR). So it has a timing issue and margin compression issue. The company is facing lower final pricing of their products while having locked in longer term "commodity" pricing at higher prices. So its raw costs are not falling as fast as its own pricing.
The poly guys mentioned above and companies like Sun Power(NASDAQ: SPWRA), First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) andSuntech Power (NYSE: STP) don't face these pressures as intensely, though that may not matter much today. STP reports on the 20th this month and I think it will give a clearer picture of the space. Meanwhile SPWRA keeps closing significant deals and FSLR reported the best and has little if any of the funding concerns. So for the leaders, it's a question of how low do they go before the long term positives catch up. Meanwhile, a few of the smaller shops like JASO are in a race against the credit crunch because they need to be able to renegotiate some of their longer-term input costs.
LDK and WFR are still companies that I feel are uniquely positioned, as both have a partial oligopoly status as polysilicon suppliers. In the $15's and lower, it's getting to the point where I may again trade around my core position and look for that beta pop on any significant Naz bounce. Also, this stock could move 50% higher and still be exceedingly cheap on almost any value criteria.
President-elect Barack Obama has often repeated his stance on alternative energy. He plans to spend $150 billion over 10 years on alternative energy, not only as part of his energy independence plan, but also in order to help clean the environment, and perhaps most important of all, to create 5 million new jobs.
With Obama winning in the polls, it is no wonder that on Tuesday solar stock prices soared: SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA) finished the day up 14.6%, Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) also closed 13.5% higher, Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) closed 12.8% higher, Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) was up 14.7% while Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) gained 9.1%, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) 9.6% and LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) 4.8%. In fact, over the past week, these solar stocks added about 50% to their value: ESLR +104%, FSLR +55%, STP +53%, SPWRA +51%, LDK +48%, CSIQ +45% and TSL +41%. [Solar stocks are down this morning, seems to me a "sell on the news" decline.]
With these kind of gains recently you might think you're too late, but solar stocks have actually been beaten mercilessly in the past year. While the S&P 500 declined some 31% year-to-date and the Nasdaq declined 33%, solar stocks plunged even worse: STP -75%, TSL -73%, ESLR -69%, SPWRA -61%, CSIQ -56%, LDK -50% and FSLR -34%.
Congress passed a bill that approved about $18 billion of renewable-energy tax credits after repeated failed attempts to do so this year, and now there will be an administration that -- if it sticks to its claims -- will be more supportive of alternative energy. The only question investors should ask, so which do I pick?
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK - option chain) shares are falling today despite the company's announcement of an eight-year contract with Japan's Sumitomo Corp. to supply solar cell parts. Under the deal, LDK will supply about 750 megawatts of multicrystalline silicon wafers to Sumitomo. However, most solar stocks are dropping today as crude oil futures are lower again at $106, and almost dipped below $105 earlier this morning. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LDK.
This morning, LDK opened at $45.57. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.70 and a high of $45.57. As of 12:20, LDK is trading at $43.20, down $2.78 (-6.0%). The chart for LDK looks neutral and S&P gives LDK a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in 6 weeks as long as LDK is below $60 at October expiration. LDK would have to rise by more than 38% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
BIG hasn't been above $35 at all inthe past year and has shown resistance around $34.90 recently.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LDK.
LDK Solar Co. (NYSE: LDK) American Depository Shares added 9.3% in today's trading. Only two weeks ago, on August 11, LDK reported second quarter results that beat any and all expectations. The shares then jumped from around $33.50 to about $40. Today, LDK shares closed at $50.06, the highest since December.
Two weeks ago, LDK raised its quarterly and 2008 forecast. Today, the Chinese maker of silicon wafers said 2009 deliveries may double. Sales next year will climb to $2.8 billion to $3 billion, the company said. Analysts estimated 2009 revenue of $2.42 billion, according to Bloomberg. LDK also announced that the company's wafer plant reached the milestone of 1.0 GW annualized capacity. For 2009, LDK predicts safer shipments between 1.45 GW to 1.55 GW.
Investors generally are pleased LDK is trying to control its raw material costs by building polysilicon plants. Yet, analyst consensus has been Hold with the average target price currently below the share price. With the recent announcements and current momentum, could we be in for a wave of upgrades, or at least estimate raising?
Many factors in the market now, including soaring oil prices and global warming concerns, have boosted the solar stocks. LDK Solar has regained its favored status recently in this hot sector. Sometimes, that's all that's needed.
LDK Solar Company (NYSE: LDK) is a leading manufacturer of the multicrystalline solar wafers used to produce solar cells and modules. The firm provides its wafers, as well as wafer processing services, to major manufacturers of photovoltaic products. More than two-thirds of its revenues derive from sales to companies in the Asia/Pacific region, primarily China and Taiwan.
The company pleased investors on Monday, when it reported Q2 EPS of $1.29 and revenues of $441.7 million. Analysts had been expecting 42 cents and $282 million. Management also guided Q3 revenues to $486-$496 million ($307.05M consensus) and FY08 revenues to $1.65-$1.75 billion ($1.16B consensus). The CEO noted that the firm had signed nine long-term wafer supply agreements year-to-date, further diversifying its customer base. On Wednesday, he announced yet another such agreement, with India-based XL Telecom & Energy.
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is recently trading at $40.25 in pre-open trading, above its close of $33.58. LDK reported Q2 revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter. ThinkEquity says: "The shares of LDK offer significant upside, with its impending polysilicon production, which should lower the company's cost structure significantly." LDK August 35 straddle is priced at $3.95. LDK September call option implied volatility is at 74, puts are at 85; near its 26-week average according to Track Data. LDK puts are priced higher than calls because LDK is difficult to borrow.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) closed at $18.46 Monday. AMAT is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Kaufman Bros says: "We reiterate our Hold and $19 price target." AMAT August straddle 18 is priced at $1.10, September is at $1.90. AMAT September option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement after EPS.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near. [Update 9:09: Seems lower oil wasn't enough to offset financials' concerns and futures now indicate stocks could start flat to lower.] JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it suffered more substantial third-quarter losses related to the hard-hit mortgage sector than it did in the second quarter and had to take a $1.5 billion write-off on mortgage-backed securities and loans.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) said late Monday that it will offer to buy back up to $4.5 billion of auction-rate securities from retail clients, following similar announcements from rivals. The broker also said it will make whole any losses suffered by retail clients who bought auction-rate securities through the firm and try to provide liquidity solutions for institutional investors.
LDK Solar Co. (NYSE: LDK) American Depository Shares are jumping nearly 20% to $40.01, up from a close of $33.58, after the solar wafer manufacturer reported second-quarter results after the close.
LDK experienced some 200% sequential growth in net earnings to $149.5 million, or $1.29 per ADS. Even excluding the change in fair value of prepaid forward contracts, the company earned 82 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates. That beat -- more like trounced -- analyst estimates of 40-42 cents a share. Revenues for the quarter were $441.7 million, up 345.9% year-over-year from $99.1 million, beating consensus of around $282 million.
The China-based multicrystalline solar wafer, solar cells and solar modules manufacturer said additional manufacturing capacity, which exceeded its own expectations, allowed the company to sell more solar wafers.
LDK didn't just beat estimates, it also raised guidance. It sees third-quarter revenue of $486-496 million vs. consensus of $307.05 million. It raised its 2008 revenue estimate from $1.08-1.18 billion to $1.65-1.75 billion. This is again far higher than analysts estimates of $1.15 billion.
LDK has been a hot stock in a hot sector. Its shares have enjoyed a wild ride in 2007 as concerns over soaring oil prices and global warming have boosted the sector, culminating in LDK recording a 52-week high of $76.75 in late September of '07. Since then, new concerns over Spanish government cutting subsidies sent solar stocks lower.
The effect of these lower subsidies on the sector and LDK remains to be seen as perhaps they could be offset by orders from other European countries. LDK, though, is also trying to control its raw material costs by building polysilicon plants, the progress of which has been "tremendous" according to the company.
RBC downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to "sector perform" from "outperform," according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports Morgan Stanley downgraded LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to "equal weight" from "overweight."
Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was started as "overweight" at JPMorgan, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) was cut to "hold " at Deutsche Bank.
Trina Solar, a maker of solar photovoltaic products, said its 
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President-elect Barack Obama has often repeated his stance on alternative energy. He 
LDK Solar
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near.
Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus
Waiting for the other shoe to drop: The looming credit crisis
Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)
