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Analyst downgrades 8-01-07: AMGN, CEPH, LYO and TDK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: TDK Corp. (TDK), Maquire Properties (MPG), BankAtlantic Bancorp (BBX), ON Semiconductor (ONNN) and Amgen (AMGN) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded TDK Corp. (NYSE: TDK) to Reduce from Neutral after the company's operating profit missed estimates.
  • Deutsche Bank cut Maguire Properties (NYSE: MPG) to Sell from Hold following the company's disappointing Q2 report.
  • Valuation and debt levels pushed Unterberg to downgrade ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) to Market Perform from Buy.
  • William Blair downgraded shares of Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe the CMS decision on ESA reimbursement guidelines is extremely restrictive regarding Aranesp use in oncology...
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Stanford downgraded MoSys (NASDAQ: MOSY) to Hold from Buy.
  • Buckingham cut Cephalon (NASDAQ: CEPH) to Accumulate from Strong Buy.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Cramer's chemical weapons

On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, BASF (NYSE: BF) in Germany is the next stock that Cramer wants to visit as an EU play, and he also thinks this company will be making some acquisitions. He does not see this as the traditional takeover stock. This one did the $80 to $120 move already, and this is over $60 Billion in market cap and he wouldn't be shocked if it goes to $150.00. He noted it is also cheaper on P/E than Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and it only gets 22% of its net from North America. BASF's earnings are also becoming more and more consistent, and that can command a P/E premium from Wall Street.

Interestingly enough, Cramer also gave us a chemical stock that could be an acquisition target. We already say Lyondell Chemical (NYSE: LYO) fall to Basell, and Cramer thinks that Nova Chemicals (NYSE: NCX) is the other chemical stock that could easily be acquired. The analyst at BB&T has picked the last two buyouts in the sector and he thinks Nova Chemical could be the next target. This one has a $3.3 Billion market cap and is atthe top of its 52-week trading range. It is far under the $50.00+ highs of early 2005.

BASF is definitely a company to watch, although Cramer is probably right that it won't be acquired. We are back to a good solid manufacturing economy and emerging markets are helping all these guys out. The company has managed to be a growth engine, and if it is true that their earnings are becoming more predictable then maybe he's right. Nova is a tough one to call, particularly since I haven't looked at it closely in some time.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Before the bell 7-17-07: Futures lower ahead of earnings, inflation data

Stock futures are indicating a weaker start on Wall Street a day after the Dow closed within less than 50 points of the 14,000 mark and ahead of the PPI report and several blue-chip earnings due today.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 43 points to a new record high, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite lost some ground. Bonds rallied yesterday following further subprime jitters.

Today, several economic indicators are due out:
At 8:30 a.m., ahead of the opening bell, June Produce Price Index, a measure of inflation at the wholesale level is scheduled to be reported. PPI is expected to show a 0.1% increase after it rose 0.9% in May. Core PPI is expected rise 0.2%, same as the month before. Numbers supporting the claim that inflation is in check, could push stocks higher, helping the current momentum, but numbers far out of line with expectations, may rattle the markets.
At 9:15 June capacity utilization and industrial production are due, both are expected to show some growth.
Homebuilder sentiment is also due out today, and is expected to show some decline.

Oil prices continued to climb while the dollar stayed near record lows.
Overseas, Asian stocks were little changed. European stocks dropped for the first time in four days as they awaited earnings and economic data out of the U.S. and after analysts downgraded oil companies. A decline in metal prices pushed mining shares lower.

Tomorrow, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to deliver his semi-annual testimony before Congress.

All the news today will either help recent positive momentum on Wall Street as it affirms investors confidence regarding inflation and the economy, or it may do the opposite. I wouldn't be surprise if the data, including earnings and economic indicators, have mixed messages as it so often does.

Corporate news:

The first real barrage of earnings news comes today as Merrill Lynch, Johnson & Johnson, Well Fargo, Intel and Yahoo! are to report earnings. The first three before the bell, the last two after the close.

Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) reported not too long ago, posting a rise in second-quarter net income rose to $1.85 billion, or 80 cents a share (including a 5 cent charge), from $1.84 billion, or 78 cents a share. Revenue rose to $7.73 billion from $6.48 billion. Analysts, on average, expected the company to earn 82 cents a share on revenue of $7.35 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

It seems that finally News Corp (NYSE: NWS) has reached a tentative agreement with Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ) to buy the latter for the original $5 billion that Murdoch had offered. The deal will now go to Dow Jones' board for approval.

Dutch-based Basell said it would buy Lyondell Chemical Co. (NYSE: LYO) in an all-cash deal worth about $12.14 billion, plus the assumption of debt. Including the assumption of debt, the deal is valued at $19 billion. Basell will pay Lyondell stockholders $48 per common share, a 19.6% premium to Monday's closing price of $40.12.

Analyst downgrades 5-24-07: AGN, FITB, SLB and VCLK

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The more noteworthy downgrades today came from Calyon, which cut five companies in the oil services and equipment sector:
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Merger buzz lifts DuPont, chemical stocks

EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE:DD) opened at $50.60. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.51 and a high of $51.40. As of 11:15 this morning, DD is trading at $51.00, up $0.99 (2.0%).

After hitting a one year high of $53.67 in February, the stock dropped with the rest of the market in the recent sell off, but found support just below $50. Rumors abound this morning that companies in this industry are attractive takeover targets, with Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW), Lyondell Chemical (NYSE:LYO), and DuPont the beneficiaries of the buzz. The technical indicators for DD have been bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. DD hasn't been below $45 since October and has shown support around $49. This trade could be risky if oil futures get back to post-Katrina levels, but in hindsight, it looks like the highest crude prices were caused by speculators, and oil has seen some resistance just over $60 per barrel recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer (Free Subscription).

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Analyst initiations 2-16-07: Cadbury Schweppes started with an Outperform

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cadbury Schweppes ADS (CSG) and Buckeye Partners (BPL) were today's most notable rating changes.
  • Wachovia started Cadbury Schweppes ADS (NYSE: CSG) with an Outperform rating. They said Cadbury's long-term global confectionery opportunities are among the best in the industry and the recent buyout of its U.S. Dr. Pepper/Seven-Up bottling unit provides high-leverage cash flow.
  • Buckeye Partners Ltd (NYSE: BPL) was initiated with an Underperform rating and a $48 target at RBC based on valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Stanford initiated AudioCodes Ltd (NASDAQ: AUDC) with a Buy rating and $15 target. The firm believes AudioCodes is an inexpensive play on the migration to packet networks.
  • Stifel initiated William Partners LP (NYSE: WPZ) with a Buy rating and $46.50 target.
  • AG Edwards started BioMarin Pharmaceutical inc (NASDAQ: BMRN) with a Buy rating and $25 target.
  • Pacer International Inc (NASDAQ: PACR) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel.
  • Morgan Stanley started Lyondell Chemical Company (NYSE: LYO) with an Overweight rating and $38 target.
  • Buckingham initiated Chattem Inc (NASDAQ: CHTT) with an Accumulate rating and $64 target, citing high margins, cash flow and reduced debt.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Lyondell's got it all: earnings, cash flow and a huge refinery

Lyondell Chemical (NYSE: LYO) was mentioned twice as a stock to buy in this past weekend's Barron's Roundtable (subscription required), recommended by both Archie MacAllaster and John Neff. At $25, the stock is selling for 6.25x earnings, versus the S&P 500 which is selling for 15x to 16x earnings.

What is particularly attractive about Lyondell is that it bought out its Venezuelan partner's 41% stake in the Citgo refinery and now fully owns this sizable refinery. This asset should generate a lot of cash flow for Lyondell's shareholders for years to come.

Lyondell put a good chunk of debt on its balance sheet to purchase the Citgo refinery stake, but has already reduced debt by $2 to $3 billion, according to MacAllaster, who put a $40 price target on the stock.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 06:39 PM

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