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My predictions for Obama's first year

Like all good marriages, the union of Barack Obama and the American people will start tomorrow with the best of intentions. The problem is that it won't last, particularly when it comes to the economy.

The president-elect already is at odds with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over whether to repeal the Bush tax cuts before they expire in 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal. The economic stimulus package is expected to top $850 billion as part of Obama's pledge to create jobs and reducing taxes. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to stink and the stock market continues to be dreadful.

Improving the economy is going to be a long, painful process. Think turning around a super-tanker and you get the idea. Good news is going to be hard to come by over the next 12 months. Bad news will be plentiful. Here are some predictions of the troubles that lie ahead for the economy no matter despite Obama's best intentions.
  • Corporate bankruptcies -- Experts are predicting one of the biggest waves of corporate bankruptcies and restructurings in years. Already, Circuit City Stores Inc. (OTC: CCTYQ) has bitten the dust and the year is just getting started. Loads of retailers who are already operating on the razor's edge of profitability may be pushed over the edge. I doubt that enough credit will be unlocked by government fiat to address this problem.

Continue reading My predictions for Obama's first year

Will a second economic stimulus revive Obama's campaign?

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, who has made the economy a focal point in his campaign, is slipping in the polls as the popularity of opponent John McCain surged after his selection of the Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running-mate.

Now Obama and his supporters are hoping that their support for a second economic stimulus -- worth about $50 billion -- will grab the attention of voters fascinated by Palin, the moose-hunting hockey mom conservative firebrand. That's going to be a challenge.

Voters now are focused on Palin. They are gobbling up every detail about her life -- The Bridge to Nowhere (which she actually supported for a while), her baby with Down's Syndrome, her pregnant teenage daughter, whether she wanted to ban books from the local library. The list is endless. The McCain campaign is fueling interest in "Sarah Barracuda" by keeping her away from the media. This week, Palin is supposed to sit down with Charlie Gibson of ABC News. More interviews will follow though apparently not with Oprah Winfrey.

Democrats, including this one, are betting that once Palin is no longer the flavor of the week voters will move onto more pressing issues such as the economy (and, of course, "American Idol"). The economy is in terrible shape. The federal budget deficit is soaring and unemployment is at record levels. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers endorsed the second stimulus plan today in testimony before Congress.

Continue reading Will a second economic stimulus revive Obama's campaign?

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Last updated: November 12, 2009: 09:19 AM

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