American motorists, already stung by an 80% increase in gasoline prices in the past year, sense that $5 per gallon is ahead, and they may be (regrettably) right.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect to pay $4 per gallon this year, and 78% expect to pay as much as $5, CNNMoney reported Tuesday.

The national average currently is $3.62 per gallon as tracked by the Lundberg Survey, Bloomberg News reported. Many higher-cost areas of the United States -- including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston -- are already experiencing prices over $4 per gallon.

Further, traders and analysts say seasonal, structural, and geopolitical factors are likely to push gasoline considerably higher in the weeks ahead -- with gasoline's upward arc lasting months, if the price of oil continues to rise.

Primary culprit: Rising oil prices

The biggest factor in gasoline's rise is the price of oil, which Tuesday topped $122 per barrel in NYMEX trading for the first time in its history. Oil is up more than 100% since 2006. In November 2001, oil traded at about $17 per barrel. Moreover, because the crude component accounts for more than 60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, refiners have passed that added cost onto consumers.

Fidel Castro, whose dictatorship outlasted the nine U.S. presidents who tried to oust him, resigned today as Cuba's president. The frail, 81-year-old despot is being succeeded by his younger brother Raul, 76, potentially leading to the end of the decades-old embargo against the Communist country.

Though replacing one Castro with another one is hardly revolutionary, this could be a significant development. U.S. businesses have been frothing at the mouth for years at the idea of entering Cuba, the largest country in the Caribbean, with a population of more than 11 million. The island, which is about the size of Pennsylvania, has natural resources including petroleum, nickel and iron ore, according to the CIA's World Factbook.

Though Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told reporters that he doesn't expect the embargo to be lifted anytime soon, that position may not hold over the long-term because the Cuban market is too large for U.S. companies to ignore. You can bet that the Europeans and Canadians would love to expand their foothold in Cuba if America drags its feet.

The trade deficit declined 6.9% to $58.8 billion in December 2007, as exports rose and imports fell, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Thursday. The figure was below the $61.6 trade deficit estimate.

For 2007, the trade deficit fell 6.2% to $711.6 billion, down from the record $758.5 billion recorded in 2006.

Monthly export record

December 2007 exports rose to a record $144.3 billion while imports declined for the first time in four months to $203.1 billion. Export activity remained strong to China, the Asia region, and South America. Exports of industrial supplies, civilian aircraft, capital goods, and consumer goods were particularly strong.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Thursday that in addition to a weaker dollar, which makes U.S. exports cheaper, the nation's exporters are demonstrating that they can find ways to maintain / increase international sales, even amid more-challenging economic conditions.

Trade: U.S. bright spot

"Across the board, companies are performing well on the export front, as U.S. goods, particularly high-value added items like aircraft, remain very competitive," Affinito said. "For the longest time trade had been a drag on U.S. GDP, but now it's starting to be a positive, which is good news for U.S. companies, employees, and the U.S. economy. The improving trade deficit picture is one of the few bright spots regarding the U.S. economy right now."

The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is American Movil SA.

American Movil S.A.B de C.V. (ADR) (NYSE: AMX) is the largest wireless service provider in Latin America, and one of the 10 largest in the world.

Analysts see 2008 revenue rising of 15-20%, after a 32% increase in 2007. Further, analysts also like the company's successful expansion to 13 other markets in the region, to go along with its two key markets: Brazil and Mexico.

Hence, analysts also really like AMX's current subscriber base -- a remarkable 153 million in 2007 -- and its projected subscriber growth rate of 12-15% for 2008, and 10-13% for 2009.

The International Energy Agency Friday increased its forecast for 2008 daily global oil demand. IEA now expects daily global oil demand to increase by 2.1 million barrels to 87.8 million barrels, or an increase of 210,000 barrels per day from the group's previous estimate.

Further, the IEA also said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members oil stockpiles in October 2007 fell to 52.6 days, or just below the 5-year average.

Energy prices

Energy prices cast aside the news Friday morning, at least for the time-being: oil fell 90 cents to $91.36 per barrel, heating oil fell 1 cent to $2.62 per gallon and unleaded gasoline dropped 4 cents to $2.37 per gallon.

"It's a slightly bearish report, but one that shouldn't move the markets too much," independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday. "A 210,000 increase on a monthly revision isn't too bad, and the market expects these rough numbers to move around, so it's pretty much factored into the price." Dietz added that he remains flat and has no positions in oil, heating oil, gasoline or natural gas at this time.

The market's choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) period continues. No single market participant can change that reality, but you can make the best of it -- specifically by looking for bargains.

Miner Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is one such opportunity. Freeport is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major miner of gold and molybdenum. Further, FCX's purchase of Phelps Dodge in March 2007 means that the company now has proven and probable reserves of: copper, 75 billion pounds; gold, 128 million ounces; and molybdenum, 1.9 billion pounds, net minority interests.

But perhaps most important, Freeport is one of only eight companies that have the economies of scale to compete in the global mining sector of the early 21st century. Look for continued merger/acquisition talk in the sector, but don't think of Freeport as an acquisition play: FCX has a large portion of the global copper market, geographical diversification, and enduring relationships with key customers, among other strengths, to continue to perform well in the years ahead.

General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) opened at $31.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.37 and a high of $31.70. As of 10:35, GM is trading at $31.56, up $0.20 (0.6%).

After hitting a one year high of $37.24 in February, the stock dropped sharply down to previous levels of support just below $29 and has been trading in a range of $3 over the past three months. GM is currently looking to Latin America for growth, especially eyeing Argentina as a lower-cost manufacturing base for the growing market for small autos in the region. Recent technical indicators for GM have been neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. GM hasn't been below $27.50 since June and has shown support around $28.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy continues to slow which could hurt automakers, but even if that happens, GM has bounced around $28 or $29 three times in the past six months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls a position in GM.

Professor Dawn McLaren , an economist at Arizona State University, has spent the last decade correlating the number of illegal immigrants nabbed crossing from Mexico and the growth of the US economy. According to McLaren, the number of apprehensions is a leading indicator, one year out, of the growth of the US economy. Illegal immigrants hold some of the most marginal jobs, and are the first to be let go during economic downturns. Word of the impending downturn quickly filters throughout the immigrant community waiting to cross, which results in fewer border apprehensions because fewer people are trying to cross. According to McLaren's statistics, US Border Patrol agents are nabbing 30% fewer illegal immigrants, indicating fewer people are chancing the trip because fewer jobs are available once they do get across. McLaren's research posits a direct correlation between fewer apprehensions since the end of 2005 and the slowing US economy, 1.3% growth rate for 1Q 2007. The downturn in the construction sector has had a huge downward impact on the number of Hispanic illegal immigrants trying to cross, resulting in fewer apprehensions.

A related unofficial indicator is the amount of money immigrants wire home every week, particularly to Latin America. According to statistics gathered by the Inter-American Development Bank, workers in the US are wiring much less money back to Latin America. After rising as much as 20 per year, the amount of money wired home is rising only in single digits in 2007. In 2006, immigrant workers remitted over $62 billion to their families. The slowdown in the construction sector has affected employment and the earnings of immigrants workers, and increased enforcement of immigration laws has also hurt would-be border crossers. Economic officials throughout Latin America are concerned that even a small decrease in remittances would wreck havoc on the economies of El Salvador, Honduras, and other remittance-dependent countries. These two pieces of economic information may be the equivalent of canaries in the coal mines.

While domestic phone companies battle for market share, non-US firms are building dominant positions in markets considered by many to offer higher growth potential, such as Latin America. And despite their foreign operations, several of these stocks are traded through ADRs on the New York exchange.

John Christy III, editor of the Forbes International Investment Report is a fan of America Movil (NYSE: AMX), the dominant mobile phone company in Mexico, with operations in a dozen other Latin American countries. The company is controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim Helu, the world's third-richest man (following Bill Gates and Warren Buffett).

Says Christy, "American Movil has had a stellar record of growth and profitability over the past five years. With cellular penetration rates in Latin America hovering in the 40% range (versus 90%+ in Europe), there is a lot more room for growth."

The shares have risen 15% since he first added it to his portfolio two months ago, and he cautions that they might pull back. However, he says, "Use dips as an opportunity to scoop up more shares. AMX is trading at less than 15 times next year's consensus earnings forecast of $2.90. With estimated earnings growth running at a 35%+ clip, AMX still looks extremely attractive."