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Why LDK Solar (LDK) is not a buy

LDK Solar Co. (NYSE: LDK) is one strange solar stock. Yesterday, on a day when other solar companies like Solarfun Power Holdings (NASDAQ: SOLF), Canadian Solar Inc (NASDAQ: CSIQ), First Solar Inc (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ: JASO) were all strong and despite earnings coming in at the high end of expectations and guidance solidly ahead of estimates, their stock was down. Not only was it down, but it also tried rebounding, only to fail. Not good at all for the bull case.

Experience has taught me to respect the price action the day after earnings. So when I see LDK trying to break out of a now 5-month old range, pretty much between $30 and $40 -- yes it was up to $50 in January and $20 in March, but those are outliers -- this is a very bearish sign. It's so bearish that I suspect that unless solar plays really heat up again, this stock will need many more weeks or months to break $40, and even then, it's got a ton of resistance all over the place due to bitter buyers in at much higher prices who will be looking to cut their losses.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 09:11 AM

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