Among all the negative economic data that came out last week was a positive surprise: retail sales were higher in January. A fluke or a glimmer at the end of the tunnel? That may depend on whether we see any positive surprises arising from items on this week's economic calendar:

• Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference: Monday through Friday
• NY Empire Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 8:30 AM
• NAHB Housing Market Index (Feb. 2009): Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks before National Association of Business Economists: Tuesday, 1:00 PM
• Housing starts (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 8:30 AM
• Fed's Pianalto speaks before Commercial Developers Power Breakfast: Wednesday, 9:00 AM
• Industrial production (Jan. 2009): Wednesday, 9:15 AM
• Fed's Bernanke speaks before National Press Club Luncheon: Wednesday, 12:30 PM

From a macroeconomic standpoint, the fiscal stimulus package can't get passed soon enough.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators (pdf) fell 0.8% in October, with six of 10 components dragging the index lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the LEI index to decline by 0.6% in October.

From April-October 2008, the leading index declined 2.4% or a negative 4.7% annual rate, compared to a 1.2% decrease or a negative 2.3% annual rate over the previous six months, the Board said.

Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Thursday the October LEI data documents what many on both Main Street and Wall Street sense: economic conditions are worsening.

"The LEI data shows an economy that's slowing. The recession is getting worse, so look for more of the same regarding job lay-offs and downsizings, as well corporate revenue and earnings declines, and earnings guidance reductions," Felson said. "As it stands now, the economy is likely to remain in recession through at least end of the second quarter of 2009, which points to the need for federal fiscal stimulus, and other measures. The individual states are doing what they can to increase private sector demand, but many are cash-strapped themselves, facing budget deficits."

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in May, the Conference Board announced Thursday. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the May index to remain unchanged in May. The index increased 0.1% in April and was unchanged in March.

The leading index has risen for the past two months, following a steady decline that began in the middle of last year, the board said. However, the number of components that are falling continues to be greater than the number of components that are rising over the past six months.

The index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in April 2008, the Conference Board announced Monday, with the organization adding that weak growth conditions -- but not a recession -- will remain an overriding theme for the U.S. economy into Q4 2008. (pdf)

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to decrease 0.1% in April 2008. The index increased 0.1% in March 2008 after declining for five straight months.

Four of the 10 ten indicators that comprise the leading index have increased in the past six months. In April 2008, six of 10 increased: stock prices, interest-rate spreads, building permits, jobless claims, vendor performance, and consumer-goods orders. Consumer expectations, factory work hours, and orders for capital goods declined. Money supply was unchanged.

A mild U.S. recession?

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Monday the April 2008 LEI information is another datapoint, albeit a modest one, pointing to a mild U.S. recession.

The index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.1% in March 2008, the Conference Board announced Thursday (pdf), with the organization adding that weak growth conditions may persist in the second half of 2008.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the index to increase 0.2% in March 2008. The index decreased a revised 0.3% in February 2008 and decreased 0.4% in January 2008.

It was the first rise for the index after five straight monthly declines. Five of the ten indicators that comprise the leading index increased in March 2008. The positive contributors ---starting with the largest ---were: real money
supply, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), interest rate spread, average weekly, manufacturing hours, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance made up the largest negative contributor to the index.

Difficult business conditions persist

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Thursday that even though the index increased slightly in March 2008, ending a a 5-month slide, the statistic still suggests a tough road ahead for the U.S. economy. "It's the smallest of rises, one that's hardly indicative of a reverse in economic trends. The index could resume sliding next month," Langan said. "We had no job growth in the first quarter, declining profits, and a housing sector in a severe correction or worse, so we're staring slow growth or no growth right in the face. Economic conditions and consumer demand in the second quarter are likely to remain challenging, to say the least."

The leading index now stands at 102 (base year is 2004 = 100). During the six-month period through March 2008, the leading index decreased 1.6%, with only three out of ten components advancing.

The index of leading economic indicators declined 0.1% in January 2008 -- its forth consecutive monthly decline, the Conference Board announced Thursday, suggesting the U.S. economy is likely to register weak growth in the period ahead.

One bright spot: the group's coincident index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.1% in January 2008, indicating that the economy wasn't in recession last month.

The Conference Board said five of the 10 components that make up the leading indicators -- stock prices, building permits, manufacturers' new orders, non-defense capital goods, and interest-rate spreads -- declined in January 2008. Real money supply, average weekly jobless claims, and consumer expectations/vendor performance increased. Average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods/materials remained the same.

Can't tell a leading from a lagging economic indicator to save your life? Don't understand why people get so excited about a book whose cover is, after all, beige? Want to know the latest information on business confidence in Japan but don't know who to ask? Bernard Baumohl's The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities is the book for you.

Surprisingly accessible, written not at all in the style of "the dismal science," Secrets of Economic Indicators provides a survey of the most influential economic indicators for both domestic and major international markets, including Germany, Japan, China, India and Brazil.

For the U.S., economic indicators are organized topically into categories covering employment, consumer spending, national outputs, housing and construction, the Federal Reserve, foreign trade and prices. Each category contains numerous entries for relevant economic indicators. As an example of a national output indicator, Baumohl includes an entry for Durable Goods Orders. This entry lists other names for the economic indicator, its relationship to overall market activity, a website where the latest information is available, the schedule for regular releases and how often, as well as what agency or department of the government is responsible for providing the information. Baumohl also provides a narrative description of the indicator, why it is important, how the indicator is computed based on what information, and what the last few figures have been for the indicator, organized in handy chart format.

Entries for economic indicators that are leading, as distinct from lagging, include a section on how this indicator provides clues for shorter and longer term economic activity, a very helpful piece of information for all types of investors.