Last night Bear Stearns & Cos (NYSE: BSC) released what was mostly known: its two mortgage derivative and collateralized debt obligation funds have imploded to the point that they are basically worthless. If you glanced over the various headlines, you'd think subprime was having an entirely new fallout:
Reuters: Subprime, earnings weigh on indexes
Associated Press: Subprime uncertainty fans out and Stocks end rally on subprime concerns
My partner also noted how the WSJ was indicating this could get much worse.
It is always difficult to stand against the crowd, but the honest truth is likely that if this were as large of a deal beyond what is already known, then you'd be seeing Bear Stearns stock down 15% or more on the news, not less than 2%. BSC shares are not even as weak as they were in after-hours trading last night after Bear Stearns came clean with the losses. This is in no way a thought that all the bad news is out, because there is ALWAYS more bad news once scandals or implosions begin. However, the share price reactions in the large brokerage firms are not indicating a serious business implosion.
This flies against the downgrades out of Punk Ziegel today, which cut ratings of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER). As the research firm said, this is likely systematic and merits some serious caution. The brokerage sector is down with most of these names off by 2% to 3%, but these businesses will not likely be toppled over the subprime woes. Indeed, while it isn't likely the pain is over yet, it is also not likely to turn into a death sentence. There will be some hits to earnings and there will be some more pain; there always is when these systemic blow-ups happen. But the large firms almost always seem to be insulated from a complete meltdown. If we lived in a different world where instant information is available, I believe these would be trading far worse than they are now.
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Reuters: Subprime, earnings weigh on indexes
Associated Press: Subprime uncertainty fans out and Stocks end rally on subprime concerns
My partner also noted how the WSJ was indicating this could get much worse.
It is always difficult to stand against the crowd, but the honest truth is likely that if this were as large of a deal beyond what is already known, then you'd be seeing Bear Stearns stock down 15% or more on the news, not less than 2%. BSC shares are not even as weak as they were in after-hours trading last night after Bear Stearns came clean with the losses. This is in no way a thought that all the bad news is out, because there is ALWAYS more bad news once scandals or implosions begin. However, the share price reactions in the large brokerage firms are not indicating a serious business implosion.
This flies against the downgrades out of Punk Ziegel today, which cut ratings of Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER). As the research firm said, this is likely systematic and merits some serious caution. The brokerage sector is down with most of these names off by 2% to 3%, but these businesses will not likely be toppled over the subprime woes. Indeed, while it isn't likely the pain is over yet, it is also not likely to turn into a death sentence. There will be some hits to earnings and there will be some more pain; there always is when these systemic blow-ups happen. But the large firms almost always seem to be insulated from a complete meltdown. If we lived in a different world where instant information is available, I believe these would be trading far worse than they are now.
Jon Ogg is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
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