MAJOR PAPERS:

• The market for private mortgage insurance has narrowed and is tougher to obtain, further pressuring home buyers and affecting the market, the Wall Street Journal reported. "Clearly, the pendulum had swung a little too far in terms of flexibility in underwriting," said Len Sweeney, the chief risk officer at AIG United Guaranty, a part of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG).
• In a agreement with Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA), Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) said it will remove visitor data from YouTube before it fulfills a judge's order to send data to Viacom, as a part of a larger copyright lawsuit, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• As part of its effort to emerge from bankruptcy protection, the Detroit News reported that Delphi Corp (OTC: DPHIQ) announced plans to sell its brake business. Delphi has retained W.Y. Campbell and Co to help sell the unit, which has around 1,000 employees worldwide.
• The New York Post learned that Dick Fuld, the CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), is seriously considering ways to take the company private. The Post said that talks centering on the privatization of Lehman have "gotten very serious consideration," according to sources, although details on how a maneuver may work remain unclear.

Newspaper wrap-up: Lehman CEO may look to take company private originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• If S&P 1340 doesn't hold, you're going to hear a lot of chatter regarding the March lows (S&P 1275) in a hurry. Be prepared. Be very prepared.
  
  
• One very savvy soothsayer, who I just got off the phone with, doesn't think we get there. He's looking for S&P 1320-ish as a long side opportunity. Just so you're hearing what I'm hearing as heck, we don't call him "As Good As It Gets" for nothing.
  
  
• Moi? Are you talking to me? You know my drill: I've got a pretty sizable ratio bet on (short crude, long oil), which I'm trading around as a function of price, along with some tertiary trading exposure, including Goldman (GS) calls.
  
  
• Speaking of taxi drivers, how long do you think it'll be before cabs are allowed to pick up multiple passengers in the Big Apple? That should help with societal acrimony!
  
  
• If you looked up "Where there's smoke, there's fire," you'd probably find a picture of Lehman Brothers (LEH)., this thing trades funky.
  
  
• I'm seeing a lot of stocks trade "wide," which is to say they're jumping around. That's a recipe for smaller size. Adapt, don't conform.
  
  
• Given the amount of typing I do on any given day, do you think I should get finger insurance?
  
  
• Baidu (BIDU) trades dry, so you see it.
  

Man, oh Manischewitz originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Fortune reports that Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) reported a $2.8 billion loss this morning. This $5.14 a share loss far exceeds the 22 cents a share that analysts were expecting. Thanks to mark-to-market asset write-downs and trading losses, Lehman posted revenue of negative $668 million in the latest quarter from $5.51 billion a year earlier.

The good news is that it reduced its leverage. Now it's only borrowing 12.5 dollars for every dollar of net equity compared 15.4 at the end of the first quarter. Lehman said it cut net assets by $60 billion in the latest quarter. And it plans to raise $6 billion in new equity -- a combination of common and preferred stock.

It's unclear why anyone would want to catch this falling knife. But those who do will demand a high price. And since Moody's (NYSE: MCO) is now cutting its outlook on Lehman to negative, it should be no big surprise that Lehman shares are down 10% in pre-market.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned

Lehman's $2.87 billion loss -- 23 times bigger than expected originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Fortune -- which shares parent Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) with BloggingStocks -- provides a clue about how big of a write-down Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) needs to take in order to account accurately for its Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) portfolio. By my estimate, that write-down could total roughly $4 billion -- wiping out 20% of Lehman's $20 billion in capital.

How so? I calculated $4.07 billion worth of write-downs -- $1.63 billion of the write-off is from worthless BB and below rated CDOs and another $2.44 billion is from the remaining CDOs that are worth about half their stated value. This is based on Fortune's report that Lehman has $6.5 billion worth of CDOs. The 25% that are rated BB or below it believes are worthless. The remaining 75% it figures are worth 50 cents on the dollar.

But wait, there's more. Lehman has $39 billion worth of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBSs) which have lost value. A key index has declined in the last quarter -- but I don't know how much. Assuming the decline was 25%, Lehman would need to write down an additional $9.8 billion. If Lehman needed to take the $9.8 billion write-down plus the $4 billion for the CDOs, its capital would decline 75%.

When I think about how Lehman is not the only one to hold these dodgy securities, it becomes clear that our financial system is resting on a very shaky foundation.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

When will Lehman take $4 billion in CDO write-downs? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Jun 2008 09:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) has approached a Korean sovereign wealth fund (SWF) about investing. But Lehman probably won't get the money it seeks. Reuters reports that Korean Investment Corp (KIC), an SWF that manages about $20 billion and is an investor in Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), is unlikely to invest in Lehman.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that investors on the Einhorn side of Lehman -- those hoping its stock will drop -- are increasing their wager. It notes that options traders increased their bearish positions to a two-month high yesterday. With one analyst expecting Lehman to report a second-quarter loss of 50 cents a share during the week of June 16, put option volume rose to 283,676 contracts, or quadruple the 20-day average, and bearish bets on the company exceeded bullish ones by 1.6-to-1.

As I mentioned during my talk at Stanford in April, SWFs have been burned by their investments in the U.S. finance industry. One of them, the Citic Group, was lucky it was able to bail out of its commitment to invest $1 billion in Bear Stearns. But that close call is likely to keep other SWFs from throwing good money after bad.

Continue reading Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile

Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Jun 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that a federal judge said that the government had "sufficient evidence" for a jury to conclude that a conspiracy to fraudulently boost the financials of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) began with former CEO Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg. That led to a transaction that artificially inflated AIG's loss reserves.
• Citigroup Incorporated's (NYSE: C) Falcon Strategies fixed income hedge fund is down 75%, the Wall Street Journal reported, bad news for the three U.S. banks that invested in it to help increase returns on employee life insurance. One of the banks, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB), is suing Transamerica Life and Smith Barney, both of whom helped to arrange the investment, and some are now questioning whether Citigroup will be forced to give back some of the investments as they have with individual investors.
• After it stopped offering some mortgages last month because it was swamped by volumes of new applications, the Financial Times reported that First Direct, a unit of HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC), has resumed lending to new customers. The bank said it has continued to receive "significant interest" in its mortgages from existing customers.

• In an effort to raise capital from shareholders, the Telegraph reported that Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is considering a takeover bid for a rival in the U.S. or UK. Sources believe Barclays may attempt to acquire an investment bank, a struggling bank or a deal in a fast-moving economy. Potential names mentioned include UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH).

Newspaper wrap-up: Citigroup may have to repay some hedge fund losses originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 May 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• To help stop Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ: MSFT) $44.6 billion takeover offer, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is in talks with Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) about combining internet operations. Meanwhile, Microsoft is talking with News Corporation (NYSE: NWS) about a joint bid for Yahoo! And Yahoo! is is considering a possible advertising agreement with Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI) is planning to launch a number of new web sites, and hopes to capture a variety of audiences including African-Americans, children and news followers.

WEB SITES:

• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) said it liquidated three investment funds, with assets valued at $1 billion as of February 29, because of "market disruptions," Bloomberg reported.
• Reuters reported that the U.S. Department of Defense approved the sale of 157 armored trucks to Britain. The trucks are built by Force Protection Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT), and the deal is valued at $125 million if all options are exercised.

Newspaper wrap-up: Yahoo talks with Time Warner, Google; Microsoft talks with News Corp. originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Apr 2008 08:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• If Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) accepts a buyout offer from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), it will have to be at the software maker's original offer of $44.6B. Microsoft won't raise the price, the Wall Street Journal reported, and the state of the economy might work in their favor.
• The FAA said that landing gear made by Illinois-based AAR Corporation (NYSE: AIR), and used on hundreds of Boeing Company (NYSE: BA)-built aircraft, includes "unapproved" parts, the Wall Street Journal also reported.
• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) is thinking of not allowing its two British subprime mortgage units to provide any new loans. The Financial Times reported that the company may also order the units to put additional pressure on borrowers with a spotty credit history whose mortgages are coming to the end of fixed-rate terms.

• According to the Detroit News, people familiar with the matter said that the strike at American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (NYSE: AXL) could threaten production of General Motors Corporation's (NYSE: GM) Chevrolet Malibu sedan.

Newspaper wrap-up: Microsoft will wait out Yahoo, and not raise its offer originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Apr 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.