In the midst of what historians will likely view as the worst financial collapse in a century, it is hard to know what will happen next or what to do about it. This weekend Hank Paulson drew a line in the sand -- refusing to put the Treasury in the middle of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) bailout which caused Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and other bidders to pass -- and now Lehman and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) are gone. (Although Bank of America's $50 billion Merrill buy could be a Pyhrric victory -- its stock is down 13% in pre-market). But now the Fed is, in effect, stepping over Paulson's line in the sand by accepting that same collection of junk that caused Lehman to fail as collateral from Wall Street in exchange for Fed money.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed is expanding its lending facility for Wall Street banks. In addition to getting money from the Fed after posting collateral such as bonds, mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), collateralized debt obligations (CDSs) -- the banks can now get money for posting equities as collateral. To translate into English, after permitting two of Wall Street's biggest names to go under, the government is realizing that it may have made a mistake. It is now back in the business of bailing out Wall Street.

But this means that the Fed is becoming Wall Street's garbage collector. So when it takes MBSs, CDSs, and stocks as collateral, it is risking taxpayer money because in all likelihood, this collateral could be worth much less than its face value. But wait, there's more. The Fed is being joined by a $70 billion lending facility created by some banks to help bailout their brethren. And one analyst expects 110 banks (out of 8,400) to fail by July -- that would account for $850 billion in assets out of $13 trillion total.

Continue reading 100 Year Crash: 110 banks to fail, regulators flail, $70 billion bailout fund set

100 Year Crash: 110 banks to fail, regulators flail, $70 billion bailout fund set originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bloomberg News reports that Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) has extended its Auction Rate Securities (ARS) redemption offer in response to what I thought was pressure from New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who threatened to take Merrill to court. But what is interesting is that Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin was the one who announced the settlement.

While the politics of this intrigue me, those who held Merrill ARSs (pun intended) care about the terms of the settlement. Bloomberg reports that Merrill "will begin the buyback on October 15 for individuals, nonprofits and small business with $3 million or less on deposit. Redemptions for clients with $100 million or less start on January 15." This Merrill deal adds to the one it announced on August 7 -- a voluntary buyback of $10 billion worth of ARS. Merrill has a total of "30,000 clients who held an estimated $12 billion" according to Bloomberg.

This leaves many major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are four holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):

• Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) ($4.3 B)
• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) ($3.7 B)
• RBC Capital Markets ($1.2 B)
• Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) ($1.1 B)

What are they waiting for?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Merrill caves to Galvin on Auction Rate Securities originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:53:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) is now the sixth major Auction Rate Securities (ARS) issuer to agree to buy back these long-term securities whose interest rates formerly reset in weekly auctions -- until those auctions failed in February. There seems to be a difference of opinion -- between New York's attorney general and the SEC and Missouri -- regarding the terms of Wachovia's deal.

Andrew Cuomo of New York thinks Wachovia will redeem $8 billion worth of ARS in November and will pay a $50 million fine. The SEC and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan said that Wachovia will buy back $5.7 billion by November 28th. The SEC said Wachovia will buy back an additional $3.1 billion in ARS in June 2009 according to the Journal. Wachovia seems to be leaning more to the two-step process outlined by Carnhan and the SEC.

Meanwhile, today's announcement leaves unredeemed the customers from the following top 10 municipal ARS issuers (their 2007 municipal ARS totals are in parentheses):

• Goldman Sachs ($4.3 B)
• Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) ($3.7 B)
• RBC Capital Markets ($1.2 B)
• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) ($1.1 B)

I don't know what they're waiting for.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Wachovia jumps on the Auction Rate Securities redemption bandwagon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The market for private mortgage insurance has narrowed and is tougher to obtain, further pressuring home buyers and affecting the market, the Wall Street Journal reported. "Clearly, the pendulum had swung a little too far in terms of flexibility in underwriting," said Len Sweeney, the chief risk officer at AIG United Guaranty, a part of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG).
• In a agreement with Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA), Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) said it will remove visitor data from YouTube before it fulfills a judge's order to send data to Viacom, as a part of a larger copyright lawsuit, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• As part of its effort to emerge from bankruptcy protection, the Detroit News reported that Delphi Corp (OTC: DPHIQ) announced plans to sell its brake business. Delphi has retained W.Y. Campbell and Co to help sell the unit, which has around 1,000 employees worldwide.
• The New York Post learned that Dick Fuld, the CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), is seriously considering ways to take the company private. The Post said that talks centering on the privatization of Lehman have "gotten very serious consideration," according to sources, although details on how a maneuver may work remain unclear.

Newspaper wrap-up: Lehman CEO may look to take company private originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• If S&P 1340 doesn't hold, you're going to hear a lot of chatter regarding the March lows (S&P 1275) in a hurry. Be prepared. Be very prepared.
  
  
• One very savvy soothsayer, who I just got off the phone with, doesn't think we get there. He's looking for S&P 1320-ish as a long side opportunity. Just so you're hearing what I'm hearing as heck, we don't call him "As Good As It Gets" for nothing.
  
  
• Moi? Are you talking to me? You know my drill: I've got a pretty sizable ratio bet on (short crude, long oil), which I'm trading around as a function of price, along with some tertiary trading exposure, including Goldman (GS) calls.
  
  
• Speaking of taxi drivers, how long do you think it'll be before cabs are allowed to pick up multiple passengers in the Big Apple? That should help with societal acrimony!
  
  
• If you looked up "Where there's smoke, there's fire," you'd probably find a picture of Lehman Brothers (LEH)., this thing trades funky.
  
  
• I'm seeing a lot of stocks trade "wide," which is to say they're jumping around. That's a recipe for smaller size. Adapt, don't conform.
  
  
• Given the amount of typing I do on any given day, do you think I should get finger insurance?
  
  
• Baidu (BIDU) trades dry, so you see it.
  

Man, oh Manischewitz originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) won't comment on write-down estimates, but according to the Wall Street Journal, investors are expecting it as prices for mortgage securities have significantly gotten worse over the past several weeks as evidenced by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) profit warnings.
• Yesterday Lehman's stock fell 8.7% as the firm announced a projected $2.8B second quarter loss and a $6B capital raise. Options activity indicated a lessening volatility, the Wall Street Journal reported, a sign that perhaps the worst may be over.
• According to a person familiar with the matter, the Financial Times reported that China's Qingdao Haier has approached investment banks to advise it on a bid for General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) appliance business.

• A brief filed by plaintiffs in a shareholder lawsuit against Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) and its directors claimed that an employee severance plan put in place to protect workers after a merger with Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) should be repealed immediately. The New York Times reported that the plaintiffs believe the plan could skew the outcome of a proxy battle between Yahoo! and Carl Icahn for control of the company.

Newspaper wrap-up: UBS facing more write-downs? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Jun 2008 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The LiveTV unit of JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) is buying Verizon Communications Inc's (NYSE: VZ) Airfone network, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• As Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) is about to report a second quarter loss of about $2B, the firm is closing in on raising over $5B in new capital, the Wall Street Journal reported. Once source of Lehman's new funding is reportedly the New Jersey Division of Investment.
• The Financial Times reported that General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal and British private equity firm GMT Communications Partners are expected to soon acquire Bigpoint, a German-based computer games website.

• According to the Independent, the credit crunch has cost the jobs of about 100 bankers at Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS). The bank cut about 20 individuals on the leveraged finance team and will reportedly cut 80 more in investment banking and IT support.

Newspaper wrap-up: NBC, British private equity firm expected to buy German games site originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 08:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Fortune reports that Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) reported a $2.8 billion loss this morning. This $5.14 a share loss far exceeds the 22 cents a share that analysts were expecting. Thanks to mark-to-market asset write-downs and trading losses, Lehman posted revenue of negative $668 million in the latest quarter from $5.51 billion a year earlier.

The good news is that it reduced its leverage. Now it's only borrowing 12.5 dollars for every dollar of net equity compared 15.4 at the end of the first quarter. Lehman said it cut net assets by $60 billion in the latest quarter. And it plans to raise $6 billion in new equity -- a combination of common and preferred stock.

It's unclear why anyone would want to catch this falling knife. But those who do will demand a high price. And since Moody's (NYSE: MCO) is now cutting its outlook on Lehman to negative, it should be no big surprise that Lehman shares are down 10% in pre-market.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned

Lehman's $2.87 billion loss -- 23 times bigger than expected originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Bloomberg News reports that 10 of the biggest names in investment banking are blocking investors from getting their hands on their share of the $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) that they were told was as safe as a money market fund.

I first posted about this back in February and now it has 4,325 comments from people trying to get at their money. Bloomberg quotes one victim of frozen ARS syndrome: Franklin Biddar, a 65-year old real estate investor who can't get his $100,000. "I can't do anything," said Biddar, who was so eager to unlock his money that he was willing to accept 11 percent less than what he paid for the securities. "Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) got me into these securities that are supposed to be as safe as a money market, and now they won't get me out."

Here's a list of the banks involved in this money blocking operation and the volume of municipal ARSs they issued between 2001 and 2007:

Continue reading Rogues gallery of banks block investor access to $330 billion

Rogues gallery of banks block investor access to $330 billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Jun 2008 13:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The banking unit of National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) recently entered into a "memorandum of understanding" with federal regulators, the Wall Street Journal reported. The banking unit has bad loans, and the agreement basically means that the bank is on probation, as the government pressures financial institutions.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Justice Department criminal prosecutors and its U.S. attorney's office in Brooklyn, NY are investigating American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) to see if they overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages.

• Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) is thinking of releasing its Q2 results a week earlier than planned, and announcing a capital raising plan at the same time, according to the New York Post, in order to reduce negative speculation about its future.
• The Economic Times reported that Indian auto companies Tata Motors Limited (NYSE: TTM) and Mahindra and Mahindra may be interested in acquiring Hummer from General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM).

Newspaper wrap-up: Federal regulators have National City under scrutiny originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) has approached a Korean sovereign wealth fund (SWF) about investing. But Lehman probably won't get the money it seeks. Reuters reports that Korean Investment Corp (KIC), an SWF that manages about $20 billion and is an investor in Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER), is unlikely to invest in Lehman.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that investors on the Einhorn side of Lehman -- those hoping its stock will drop -- are increasing their wager. It notes that options traders increased their bearish positions to a two-month high yesterday. With one analyst expecting Lehman to report a second-quarter loss of 50 cents a share during the week of June 16, put option volume rose to 283,676 contracts, or quadruple the 20-day average, and bearish bets on the company exceeded bullish ones by 1.6-to-1.

As I mentioned during my talk at Stanford in April, SWFs have been burned by their investments in the U.S. finance industry. One of them, the Citic Group, was lucky it was able to bail out of its commitment to invest $1 billion in Bear Stearns. But that close call is likely to keep other SWFs from throwing good money after bad.

Continue reading Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile

Lehman seeks Korean capital as shorts smile originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Jun 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a move to help cut expenses and save on fuel prices, UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, will reduce its 460 airplane fleet by 70 jets. Not yet known is how may jobs will be affected, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In an all stock deal, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) is expected to buy Folgers coffee from The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for an estimated $2B, according to the Wall Street Journal. Folgers, the best selling ground coffee in the U.S., has annual sales of about $1.6B.
• The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) lost $500M-$700M on some of its hedging positions in Q2, which have contributed to a larger than expected loss that could result in the bank raising more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. Lehman has begun negotiations with potential investors, including asset managers and Asian banks, sources said.

• According to sources, the Rocky Mountain News reported that troubled home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH) is pulling out of Colorado. Beazer, which is being investigated for mortgage fraud by several government agencies, has built homes in the suburbs of Denver and in Colorado Springs.

Newspaper wrap-up: UAL Corp. to drop 70 more jets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 04 Jun 2008 08:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• As it prepares to report its first quarter results, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) may need to raise $3B to $4B to support its balance sheet, meaning its first quarter loss could be higher than the anticipated $300M, according to the Wall Street Journal. The capital raise would likely be through new common shares.
• Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) shareholders are suing the company over an employee severance plan they say was intended to help block its takeover by Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), adding between $462M and $2.1B to Microsoft's costs,the Wall Street Journal reported.
• The Financial Times reported that Momentive Performance Materials, a company owned by private-equity firm Apollo Management, has exercised its option to suspend cash payments on part of its debt.
• As manufacturers push to compete in the "netbook" category, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) admitted to shortages of its Atom microprocessor. In an interview with with the Financial Times, Intel's executive vice-president, Sean Maloney, said the company had received more orders than expected for the low-power processor.

Newspaper wrap-up: Lehman may raise billions to help balance sheet originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Jun 2008 08:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In an effort to refocus on coffee, the Wall Street Journal reported that Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) will attempt overhaul its entertainment business.
• Private equity players Apax Partners and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, along with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) in a supporting role, are looking to form a consortium to examine a bid for the insurance assets of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (NYSE: RBS), the Financial Times reported.

• Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is going to let outside developers create applications across its network of sites, the New York Times contended. The search engine is also going to combine its online services under the social profile concept in an attempt to allow its users to replicate the social experience that social networks like News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) MySpace and Facebook have made so popular.

• Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) will reportedly delay the launch of its new hotly anticipated 3G BlackBerry phone, Fortune reported, which the company is developing for AT&T Inc (NYSE: T). The phone, originally supposed to be launched in June, may not be released until as late as August, inside sources said.

Newspaper wrap-up: New 3G BlackBerry may be delayed until August originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.