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Posts with tag Liber

Chasing Value: Anadarko hits all-time HIGH!

Anadarko PetroleumDuring Thursday's trading, Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) hit an all-time high of $78.75 and closed at $77.62. Anadarko was one of my first recommendations after I started writing for BloggingStocks, and is nearing 100% appreciation from the $40 price tag it had when we acquired it.

The 10-year chart below indicates the strong long-term performance of Anadarko, rising about 500% and paying dividends to boot. I cannot say the stock is a bargain at recent highs, but I can emphatically state that this company belongs on your watch list.

Chart

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anadarko hits all-time HIGH!

Battle of the Brands: Home Depot vs. Lowe's

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

There are many contrasts between The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW), both of which sell a broad range of tools, fixtures, fittings, garden supplies, and construction materials to do-it-your selfers and professional contractors alike. Home Depot is the original big-box category killer of a hardware store that displaced many a mom-and-pop shop, as well as its predecessors, like Builders Emporium. Lowe's, the new kid on the block has been growing like mad with Home Depot's business in it's cross-hairs.

Both companies have been suffering mightily in the face of the housing slump and the crushing financial markets. Eventually, recession or not, both companies will see their revenues improve as the economy works through it's nightmarish problems.

Continue reading Battle of the Brands: Home Depot vs. Lowe's

The next Buffett, Elvis, or Jordan

From left: Warren Buffett, Michael Jordan, Elvis Presley, Kobe BryantThis weeks Barron's (subscription required) talks about The Next Warren Buffett. Of course nobody believes that's going to happen. The headline is cast to grab attention and sell papers, just like mine, but it's not happening: no way, no how!

Barron's discusses in it's story the strong possibilty that David Sokol, 51, the curent chairman of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company is the most likely to succeed Buffett. MidAmerican has $39 billion in assets and is a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A). The headline should really have read "succeed" not be the "next".

Continue reading The next Buffett, Elvis, or Jordan

Battle of the Brands: eBay vs. Craigslist

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Something new and something old, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) the large Internet trading platform competes more each day with Craigslist, who's platform continues to unfold. They are very much the same, and oh so different, too. Craigslist has been resisting becoming eBay in too many ways, yet eBay has gone through the back door to acquiring partial ownership and tracking a competitive threat from the inside.

Being public, eBay must disclose its financial information, which is not true for the private Craigslist. Craigslist is not happy about eBay's ownership position, and for its part eBay has sued Craigslist. It says the board diluted its interest in the popular site by more than 10%, and the two have been trading accusations since.

For most of Craigslist's history there has been pressure to become public or sell itself outright or make the pursuit of profit a higher motive. That has been shunned in favor of slowly building a user friendly and practical Internet information trading platform.

Continue reading Battle of the Brands: eBay vs. Craigslist

Marvel announces Iron Man 2

It did not take long for Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) to announce the intended 2010 release of Iron Man 2. This came one day after Marvel reported its latest earnings and the spectacularly successful weekend debut of its newest hit movie.

Having seen Iron Man with the cast and crew -- a prejudiced crowd if there ever was one -- I can tell you it is worth catching Iron Man on the big screen.

Meanwhile, if you are a Marvel comics fan, as I was growing up, and can't wait for the sequel, let's hope that the June 13 premiere of the The Incredible Hulk tides you over until 2010. And then, starting with Iron Man 2, you can look forward to the gates opening wide for the pantheon of Marvel Super Heroes.

Continue reading Marvel announces Iron Man 2

Marvel reports earnings as Iron Man is golden

Even if you have not seen the new Iron Man movie yet you can be sure that there will be a sequel after 'Iron Man' Proves His Mettle this weekend topping all estimates of its potential at the box office passing $100 milion dollar mark and easily taking the top spot.

Earlier today Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) reported an increase in earnings from last years first quarter. Net income came in at $45.23 million, compared to $46.84 million last year. However, net earnings were up from $0.54 to $0.58 per share this year.

Last week after seeing a preview of Iron Man I posted Marvel's Iron Man will be HUGE! and it was. This is only the beginning because in addition to more of Iron Man filling the big screen we can look forward to more of Spider-Man, The Hulk, Wolverine, The Punisher 2, Magneto, Namor and many more in script development. Then there is the product licensing too, so it looks like the world will be looking simply Marvel-ous as Billy Chrystal liked saying way back when on Saturday night live.

The comnpany raised it's 2008 earnings per share estimate to the rangeof $1.35 to $1.55 from the $1.30 to $1.50 range. Marvel increased net income guidnace for the year to $104 to $122 million from $100 to $118 million.

The Stock is up $2.25 to $32.50 per share in morning trading.

UPDATE: MVL closed up $2.85 to $33.10.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I hold no position in MVL as of this writing -- but I am considering buying it

Sunday Funnies: Did your mom give you this advice?

In this month' Money Magazine story, Calming words for troubled times the final words were by Deena Katz, Chairman, Evensky & Katz Wealth Management, who shared this "My mom always said, if you're going to do it, don't worry; if you're going to worry, don't do it."

Are you a worrier? Do you fret over everything? Can you undo those things you have already done that you are worried about? Sometimes it's tough. But maybe you should consider it. How does that apply to the stock market or investing in general. From that perspective it is very simple. Do not invest in anything that will keep you up at night.

While this may be good advice for most aspects of investing there is one time that it might cost you. When stocks are rising few people are worried. When stocks are falling everyone's worry factor rises. As their worry factor rises they tend to become sellers. This may relieve one of their worries but it also may relieve them of their money because it contradicts two other old bits of wisdom.

"Buy low and sell high" is a common refrain said tongue in cheek because a bell does not ring announcing the highs and lows. However, even 'my pal Warren' would advise that "investors should buy on fear and sell on greed". So then the modified version of mom's advice melding it with market realities is that you should be worried when others are not and remain calm when everyone else is panicking.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

Grains & OilseedsThis month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

Battle of the Brands: Nike vs. Under Armour

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

The story of Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and Under Armour (NYSE: UA) is just one more David and Goliath scenario. Just like in the biblical story, David's battle (UA) was more one of survival against the odds, while Goliath (NKE) truly did want to vanquish the diminutive challenger. Under Armour is capitalized at $1.28 billion while the long-established and legendary Nike has a capitalization more than 20 times the size at $26.38 billion.

NIKE, the world's #1 shoemaker, does more dominating than assisting, to capture more than 20% of the U.S. athletic shoe market. It designs and sells shoes for a variety of sports, including baseball, cheer-leading, golf, volleyball, hiking, tennis, and football. Under Armour is proving its mettle as an apparel warrior. Since its foray into the sporting goods market, the maker of performance athletic undies and apparel has risen to the top of the industry pack, boasting a big portion of the compression garment market.

In addition to playing a dominant role in the shoe market, Nike has retail and wholesale outlets that sell a broad range of branded sports gear, including clothes, watches, balls, hats, and an expanding array of accessories. Under Armour is expanding as well, trying to get a foot-hold (could not resist) in the shoe market starting with a series of cross-trainers. They hope to capture perhaps 10% of the market as they promote their up-and-coming brand.

Continue reading Battle of the Brands: Nike vs. Under Armour

Serious Money: Infuriated by Amazon numbers?!

Every time I see a story about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) I am infuriated and bewildered. How in the world can a 13 year old company have a P/E ratio of 70 and $32 billion capitalization on 37% year over year growth. The top line growth is great and so is the growth in net earnings but does it justify a P/E of 70?

Yesterday Amazon impressed Wall Street by beating expectations in many areas. However, two areas that disappointed were it's reduced earnings projections for the year and a lack of transparency or specifics in certain segments of its enterprise. Also if earnings were lowered by 4% to 6% then why is the stock only down 3%?

The stock is down about $2 from yesterday's close of $81 fluctuating in the the high 70's. From my perspective the stock is way too high and the limited number of shareholders is still holding up the price. Last year I wrote Who owns Amazon.com - really? and not much has changed in this regard.

Continue reading Serious Money: Infuriated by Amazon numbers?!

Chasing Value: PDS up 75% in Q1, announces distribution

Last Friday, April 18, Precision Drilling Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian Trust, announced that the Board of Trustees has approved a cash distribution for the month of April 2008 of $0.13 per trust unit of Precision. The distribution will be payable on May 15, 2008 to unit holders of record on April 30, 2008.

The current dividend yield of 5.8% remains very generous and far above most other stocks in the sector. After some of my high dividend stock recommendations either under performed or simply cut their distribution, it is reassuring to see that PDS not only is maintaining its dividend, but in this particular case continues to pay out monthly, allowing for better compounding of the yield.

The stock closed today at $27.15, up 75.5% from $15.47 when I recommended the stock three months ago. If you got into the stock back then you would still be receiving over a 10% yield. Last year I had several high flyers but not all of them stayed up so I am watching Precision closely for signs of weakness or changes in the business.

Continue reading Chasing Value: PDS up 75% in Q1, announces distribution

Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical drops on analyst disappointment

While analysts have proven over and over again that they are human (can't be more polite than that) the impact that they have on short-term stock values is clear. Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG), which closed yesterday at $348.50, dropped to $310.54 at the opening bell and is now trading at $292.00 as I type away. I will report the closing price in an update, but for now the stock has been hit hard -- down over 16%.

ISRG the maker of the da Vinci system, which uses robotic equipment and computers to do minimally invasive surgical procedures disappointed analysts and the stock was punished. Interestingly ISRG reported strong growth and even a positive outlook, however, that outlook was not as glowing as analysts expected and the result is not pretty. Does this mean that the company is not doing very well -- no. Does this mean that the stock price will not be higher next year than it is today -- the answer is no again.

What it does mean is that like other stocks with nosebleed valuations, such as Intuitive's with a trailing P/E of 80, they remain hypersensitive to the slightest deviation from expectations, reasonable or not. This happens even when Intuitive Surgical Q1 profit almost doubled.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical drops on analyst disappointment

Serious Money: Bear Stearns questions and curiosities

For me, I just find it unfathomable that management would either bet the farm on some very high risk investments, or equally bad, bet the farm on investments they did not fully comprehend. This is such an extreme case of mismanagement that investors the world over can not believe it was possible. As a matter of fact it seems so impossible that it is probably what kept many of us faithfully invested. Many of us take investment risks, some more than others, but to bet the whole farm? To bet your future existence? This is financial insanity.

Is this just a case of greed causing blindness? If so why was it so contagious among some firms and not others?

It seems to me that the reported $2 per share purchase price that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is paying for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) would not have been enough to buy the brand name last year, never mind the whole company. What we are witnessing is the strong (until JPM reports some surprise) taking advantage of the weak. It also exemplifies how bad the market is, that no other buyer has stepped in at these fire sale prices.

Continue reading Serious Money: Bear Stearns questions and curiosities

Citigroup should hire forensic auditors

It is entirely possible that what I suggest is already happening, however, I will recommend it anyway. Citigroup (NYSE: C) should hire forensic auditors that report directly to the board to investigate how the bank got so far off course. The stock closed at $22.15 yesterday near its 52-week low and a far cry from its May high of $55.55.

Clearly, the board was not aware of the huge risks the bank was exposed to; investing in, and promoting very questionable 'securities' -- a misnomer if there ever was one, and doing so in multiple portfolios. It is by no means clear that the Board has any idea what remaining risks middle management may know about now, but is afraid to share.

It may also be the case that the board knew of the financial instruments, at least in general, but was not capable of evaluating the risk. I am being kind in not suggesting that the directors walk the plank, because if they were not completely asleep, they at least dozed off for a time.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Bagel & pizza costs skyrocket -- think gas is high, read this!

Brian and Andrea get up at 4:30 AM so that their customers may get steaming hot bagels and mini-pizzas every morning on their way to work. New York Bagel & Deli (NYBD) is the wake-up call for the Santa Monica neighborhood I work in, and recently we got one heck of a wake-up.

Brian informed me that "in the last two years he has seen his cost for a 50 pound bag of high gluten flour go from $8 to $16". After that huge rise, he recently was hit with a bigger shock to his business -- "the price went from $16 to $32 in just 3 weeks!"

He said "in some places in the country the price has reached as high as $36." Brian is very sensitive to the needs and desires of his loyal customer base and feels terrible about this increase. He is struggling with how to moderate the increases and the sticker shock on the cost of a dozen bagels. This is very difficult for him. This is a major blow to the heart of his business.

Continue reading Bagel & pizza costs skyrocket -- think gas is high, read this!

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Last updated: July 09, 2008: 06:03 AM

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