There's modest good news on the gasoline front for U.S. consumers, but don't write (or e-mail or text message) home just yet.

Several key oil-producing nations are preparing for the prospect of $45 per barrel oil, indicating these oil exporters believe the price of the world's most important commodity is likely to fall more amid both U.S. and global economic recessions.

Saudis prep for oil's slide

Saudi Arabia, which possesses the largest proved oil reserves in the world, has passed a government budget that's prepared for $45 oil, stratfor.com reports. Meanwhile, Nigeria and Libya have reduced their 2009 oil price forecasts to $45.

Oil, which has plummeted more than 60% since hitting a record high of $147.27 this summer, fell another 48 cents to $58.85 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading.

Economist Richard Felson said the oil price plunge and the gasoline price drop it has created is good news for U.S. motorists, with certain qualifiers. "It is an astounding drop, approaching a $100 per barrel drop, and that has taken pressure off refined energy products," Felson said. "The problem is, if analysts are correct about $40-45 per barrel oil, it implies a slowdown in U.S. and global GDP that will likely mean large layoffs, which isn't good for anyone."

Oil prices, the source of so much inflation and consternation in the developed and developing world, are expected to continue to slide toward $60, economists and traders say, even as OPEC prepares to cut production at a special meeting this week.

Oil has fallen about 50% since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel in July, amid a financial crisis that's slowed growth in every region of the globe. Further, OPEC, which produces about 40% of the world and will hold a special meeting October 24, will only able to slow oil's descent to the $60-range, with anticipated production cuts, so says economist Peter Dawson.

"The report that China's economy grew at a 9% annual rate in the third quarter is the last piece of the oil demand puzzle, as far as the slowdown is concerned," Dawson said. "China was growing at better than 10% in the same quarter a year ago, so that will further reduce the growth in global oil demand, which is bearish for oil prices. Prices will most likely slide toward the $60-range by mid-2009." Oil rose $1.35 to $73.20 per barrel in Monday morning trading.

OPEC again cut its forecast for 2009 global oil demand, the cartel announced Wednesday in its monthly report, raising the specter that hawkish cartel members will push for production cuts at a special meeting next month.

OPEC now believes (pdf) that 2009 global oil demand will increase by 800,000 barrels per day to 87.21 million barrels, compared to the previous forecast of a 900,000 barrel per day rise.

OPEC said its production in September averaged 32.16 million barrels per day, down about 310,000 from August.

Energy prices continue to fall

Energy prices retreated Wednesday on the news. Oil fell $3.44 to $75.21 per barrel. The other major energy commodities also fell in early trading Wednesday, continuing their nearly month-long downtrend. Heating oil fell about 5 cents to $2.20 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 8 cents to $1.80 per gallon, and natural gas fell 7 cents to $6.66 per million BTUs.

In its report, OPEC said that even if governments are successful in unfreezing credit markets, the fallout in the real economy is expected to be considerable. The credit drag, combined with decelerating growth in both developed and developing world economies, will weigh on oil demand throughout 2009. OPEC has called a special meeting for November 18 to address what it argues is an oversupplied global oil market.

As national policy makers strive to unfreeze credit markets and end a global financial crisis that threatens to severely damage economies worldwide, Saudi Arabia will not defend an $80 oil price, and instead will let the price of oil fall, to reduce a critical cost stress on the global economy, economists and energy traders say.

Further, despite today's more-diverse oil market characterized by dozens of suppliers, any Saudi decision to not cut production will lower oil prices, Energy Trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Friday.

Saudi Arabia possesses the largest, proven oil reserves in the world. The kingdom also has the biggest, quickly-marketable spare production capacity in the world, estimated to be 1.5-5.0 million barrels of oil per day, depending on the analysis.

'Saudis will let oil price fall, a lot'

"The Saudis are fully aware of the grave situation facing global financial markets and economies. The Saudis are going to let the price of oil fall, a lot. Other OPEC members like Iran or Venezuela may call for a production cut and try to protect their interest, but it's a non-starter, an after thought," Dietz said. "The Saudis know that every stimulative tactic must be used to keep commerce moving and eliminate stress and a lower oil price is part of that solution." (Dietz added that he had no open energy trading positions, his normal stance for a Friday.)

Oil fell $6.94 to $79.65 per barrel Friday at mid-day, as a near-panic atmosphere permeated markets as stocks plunged worldwide and U.S. stock markets declined for an eighth consecutive day. At 12:05 p.m. EDT, the Dow was down 313 points to 8,265 and the S&P 500 was down 38 points to 871.

"An $80 oil price is too high for this economy. It probably was too high for any economy, but that is a debate for another time. Right now, the oil market senses that the Saudis know the price of oil must go lower to reduce financial system stress," Dietz said. "And as the Saudis go, so goes the price of oil."

Oil's rise to yet another record high Friday underscores how little it can take to send crude in its favorite direction -- vertical -- during this seemingly relentless bull run.

On Thursday it was Libya, which threatened to reduce production in response to a U.S. law that allows terror victims to seize assets of foreign governments, Bloomberg News reported. That was enough to cause oil to bolt $5.50 higher on the day, and on Friday oil hit another record, $142.99, before easing back to close up 57 cents to $140.21 per barrel.

Key factor: rising demand

Still, while others will cite the weak dollar, or the influence of speculators, or supply concerns (such as Libya's), in oil's record rise, energy trader Jim Dietz said one factor has been a constant throughout the climb: rising demand.

Oil prices rose to new highs today, with crude moving up as high as $103.95 earlier in the session, before cooling off slightly. Prices are now trading at $103.36, up $1.52.

There are two main driving forces today that are pushing prices higher. The first is the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, and the second is the general consensus that OPEC will decide to leave output unchanged at this week's meeting.

First, taking a look at the dollar, today it hit a new record low versus the euro. The dollar continues to suffer as world markets prepare for a possible recession hitting America this year. With America's economic slowdown on traders' minds, the dollar continues to fall as many expect that the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to cut interest rates even further to keep the economy moving. Of course, any rate cuts will only further weaken the already struggling currency.