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Analyst downgrades: MDRX, SPPR, CEPH, LLNW and FIF

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Allscripts, Supertel Hospitality, Cephalon, Limelight Networks and Financial Federal were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Allscripts (NASDAQ: MDRX) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at JP Morgan following its weak Q3 results and guidance.
  • Supertel Hospitality (NASDAQ: SPPR) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird and to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities following its disappointing Q3 report.
  • JMP securities downgraded Cephalon (NASDAQ: CEPH) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy citing uninspiring Q3 revenue growth.
  • Friedman Billings downgraded Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) to Market Perform from Outperform citing the tough pricing environment, competition, and upcoming IPO lockup expiration on 12/5.
  • The firm also downgraded shares of Financial Federal (NYSE: FIF) to Underperform from Market Perform, as they expect the company to be impacted substantially from the slowing economy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Newspaper wrap-up: Baidu considering listing in Asia

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • According to the Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column, content firms such as Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) and Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) are getting hammered, and there appears to be no letup in sight because while online traffic is up 60% a year over the last few years, those firm's shares are expensive and, says S&P's Scott Kessler, "There's plenty more room for [Akamai and Limelight] to fall."
  • TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO) is looking at a new revenue source -- being paid to give out market research to advertisers, reported the Wall Street Journal. The company plans to announce today that it will add demographic data, including age, income, marital status and ethnicity, about its viewers.
  • The Financial Times (subscription required) reported that Ford (NYSE: F) is likely to have to pay any buyer of its Jaguar and Land Rover units because of a $2B pension deficit, according to people close to the situation.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The New York Times reported that Con Edison (NYSE: ED) was fined $18M for service disruptions in 2006, including the nine-day blackout in western Queens, NY.
  • The Associated Press reported that Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) is considering listing on the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets, according to the company's CEO.

Analyst inititations: NWS, LLNW, GLW and CKEC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: News Corp, Limelight Networks, Corning and Carmike Cinemas were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • RBC Capital is positive on News Corporation's (NYSE: NWS) strategy of investing cash flow away from mature enterprises to fund high-growth initiatives such as Sky Italia and Fox Interactive Media. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $26 target.
  • Kaufman Brothers rates Limelight Networks Inc (NASDAQ: LLNW) a Sell based on a significant increase in the competitive environment with Akamai discounting on large deals, Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) introducing a competitive offering in November 2007, Korean major-CD Networks becoming aggressive, and new entrants becoming aggressive with their value propositions.
  • Deutsche Bank initiated Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW) with a Buy rating and $31 target as they believe shares are fundamentally undervalued given the company's strong fundamentals and promising outlook.
  • Carmike Cinemas Inc (NASDAQ: CKEC) was started at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating. The firm said the company is the most exposed to 3-D, which could lead to potential upside due to low margins and leverage capital structure.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Limelight (LLNW): An IPO collapse, a lesson in investing

A fair amount has already been written about the fact that since the recent IPO, content delivery network Limelight (NASDAQ: LLNW) has dropped sharply in price. In about three months, the stock has gone from $24.33 to $7.91.

But, how could something like this happen? In some ways it is, to used an abused phrase, a perfect storm of events.

The market has assumed that content delivery networks are part of the wave of the future. The largest one, Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM) had been a victim of the internet bubble. In December 1999, the shares were at $345 on the assumption that broadband would open a huge need for storage and moving content around the web. When the market collapsed, Akamai's shares were as low at $0.70.

But, because Akamai did hold on until the YouTube wave of online video streaming hit, its shares went from $11 in early 2005 to $50 last month.

Limelight, and one of its largest investors, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) decided to cash in on the excitement around Akamai, and took the smaller company public. Certainly the IPO would be popular because of the tremendous excitement around audio and video streaming as companies including the TV networks and studios put their content online.

Continue reading Limelight (LLNW): An IPO collapse, a lesson in investing

Limelight to electrify the IPO market

With the surge of multimedia on the web, there is a big need for cost-efficient infrastructure solutions. That's what Limelight Networks provides and now the company has filed the necessary papers for its IPO.

A study from eMarketer estimates that last year about 60% of all Net users regularly watched online videos. The number is expected to soar to 80% by 2010.

As for LimeLight, its infrastructure is "a complex network of networks." The foundation is a 10 gigabite backbone, meaning content providers don't have to build their own systems. There are indeed lots of customers – more than 700. Examples include Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and News Corp.'s (NYSE:NWS) MySpace.

From 2004 to 2006, Limelight's revenues skyrocketed from $11.1 million to $64.3 million. Although, the company sustained a net loss of $3.7 million last year.

In light of the growth and the success of companies like Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the Limelight IPO should be a winner.

The underwriters include Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS). The proposed ticker symbol is "LLNW."

You can find the prospectus at the SEC website.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 01:47 PM

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