Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.
General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.
Target (NYSE: TGT) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 19. TGT September & October option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Gap (NYSE: GPS) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 21. GPS September option implied volatility of 47 is near its 26-week average of 43, suggesting slightly larger price movement.
Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS after the market close on August 20. LTD September option implied volatility of 51 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Rival home improvement chains Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Not surprisingly, given the ongoing housing slump, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect both companies to post earnings lower than in the same period a year ago. For Home Depot, that's 61 cents per share, down 20.8%, and for Lowe's, 56 cents per share, down 16.4%. Meanwhile, cabinet maker American Woodmark Corp. (NASDAQ: AMWD), for whom Home Depot and Lowe's are major distributors, is also expected to report lower earnings: 11 cents per share, down 67.6%.
The presidential campaigns have prompted much discussion of energy policy and alternative energy sources. Some solar-energy-related concerns are scheduled to report this week, and expectations seem to be high. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is expected to report 81 cents per share earnings, up 67.9%; ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is expected to post earnings of 32 cents per share, up 62.5%; and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) is expected to have earnings of 32 cents per share, up 21.9%. Even China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSUN) is expected to have swung to a profit of 3 cents per share, from a per-share loss of 14 cents a year ago.
Bloomberg News reports that Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) saw big sales increases in July thanks to $4 gas, while more upscale retailers, such as The Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), lost business. The stock market is responding to the change and so far this year, Wal-Mart shares are up 27.8% but Costco's have fallen 5.8% (thanks to a profit squeeze due to its gasoline costs rising faster than the price it charges consumers). Limited stock has lost 10.8% during that time.
The details are worth knowing. Wal-Mart sales at stores open at least a year gained 3% while Costco's climbed 10%. Limited, the owner of the Victoria's Secret lingerie chain suffered a 5% decline. But Wal-Mart's results -- while strong -- were disappointing to investors who expected 3.4% growth. What is driving this increasing budget-consciousness? The beginning of back-to-school shopping, the suspension of sales taxes in some states, $4 a gallon gas, 9.6% inflation and seven months of job losses are all combining to push shoppers to discounters and away from pricier retail outlets.
First quarter results for apparel retailers reporting earnings on Wednesday were mixed, as consumers continue to scale back their spending.
Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) first-quarter profit dropped 69% to 3 cents per share, hurt by noncore operations and restructuring charges. Same-store sales fell 9.8% during the quarter, and revenue fell 5% to $542.4 million, which missed the estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial. Shares rose 6% Wednesday to $7.88.
Hot Topic Inc. (NASDAQ: HOTT) first-quarter loss widened to 3 cents per share due to a 2.8% drop in same-store sales. Revenue rose 1.1% to $159 million. Analysts had expected a loss of 4 cents per share on $159.3 million in revenue. Shares fell 13 cents, or 2.6%, to $4.84.
Tween Brands Inc. (NYSE: TWB) first-quarter profit declined on a hefty charge, but results still topped Wall Street expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were 21 cents, and revenues rose to $251.7 million. Analysts had expected 16 cents in earnings per share and sales of $242 million. Total same-store sales decreased 1%. Shares fell more than 10% to $19.20, but rebounded 7.5% in after-hours trading.
A few years back, The Onion ran a spoof article in which it claimed that Microsoft was trying to copyright ones and zeros, in an attempt to corner the market on binary code. Of course, the problem with satire is, just when you think you've hit the jackpot on ridiculousness, reality trumps you.
Recently, Juicy Couture Inc. filed a lawsuit against Victoria's Secret, claiming that the lingerie giant had stolen many of its marketing gimmicks and design features. Among other things, Juicy stated that Victoria's Secret had copied:
Juicy's packaging, which resembles candy (Lingerie disguised as candy?!? Didn't Spencer's Gifts come up with this idea somewhere around 1978?).
Juicy's most popular color scheme, which revolves around the color pink (Pink? For girls? Clearly, Juicy's designers are underappreciated revolutionaries!).
Juicy's most popular design, in which its logo is emblazoned across the backside of the wearer (I wonder if Juicy's next step will be to go after all the lower-back tattoo wearers out there. Tramp-stampers, beware!).
While Victoria's Secret (a subsidiary of Limited Brands, Inc.: NYSE: LTD) may well be guilty of plundering the ideas of others (in particular, Katerina Plew, whose lawsuit seems to have a little more merit), it seems like Juicy is getting a little ridiculous. Intellectual property is all well and good, but is it legitimate to copyright the color pink?
Still, as a luxury item, lingerie is probably not selling all that well right now. Maybe Juicy needs the dough?
With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase.
Encouraging news for retailers showing a rebound in consumer spending during the past month came after world's largest retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced a rise of 2.6% for its February same-store sales. The company said that its same-store sales during the period were helped by strong gains from gas, food and flat-panel TVs. Analysts were expecting the retailer show an increase of 1.1% for its same-store sales, according to Thomson Financial.
Among other retailers that showed a rebound in February sales were Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), both of which reported stronger-than-expected gains. Apparel retailers Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) also reported earnings results exceeding estimates of 6% sales growth last month.
For Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), though, February didn't come with positive results. The company stated that higher energy and food prices put pressure on consumers who focused on necessities.
In a short story in the Wall Street Journal [subscription required], Sharen Turney, chief executive of of Victoria's Secret, confided during a conference call that the lingerie chain may have gotten off track at some point and may now be just too sexy.
Can there be such a thing as too sexy? There are times you can be too trashy, or too slutty, but can you be too sexy? I think not!
It may be that some of the advertisements on television are inappropriate for the time-slot. It may be that at times the ads are viewed like soft porn and teenage boys are the first to peruse the monthly mailing. But too sexy? That is a very strange comment coming from a company that has made a reputation for itself and pushed sales growth for years based on a foundation of sex appeal.
The Victoria's Secret chain is a division of the Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD) and Turney said she wants to bring a more sophisticated image back to the product line - hmm. I wonder if this is just a smoke screen to avoid criticism by conservatives in an election year.
I can just hear the discussion in the board room: "There are some folks that think we have gone too far, and that we present an image that is just too darn sexy. All those in favor of being less sexy raise your hands"
This just does not seem possible, does it? LTD closed yesterday at $17.82 but is down over 9% in midday trading. Maybe Wall Street traders prefer more sexy, not less?
Gallery: Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2007
UPDATE: LTD closed at $15.85 down $1.87.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of LTD.
"SEXY." The capital letters blared at me from the window of Victoria's Secret in Pioneer Place here in Portland. Next to the clean lovely windows of the Apple store, I felt I almost had to shield my eyes, to protect me from the glare. The mannequin dressed in a red bustier seemed more Elvira than Rebecca Romijn, the sweet face of Victoria's Secret when I was a loyal customer in my early 20s.
I'm not the only one turned off by the company's recent focus on sexy above all else. In rather shocking statements during this morning's Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD) analyst call, Victoria's Secret CEO Sharen Turney said the company has "gotten too much off our heritage" and was "too sexy," no longer the ideal "ultra-feminine."
With black lacquer and shocking pink decor, the "s" word thrown around like neon signs in a red-light district, and rather unsubtle displays, this isn't my mother's Victoria's Secret.
Bank of America says: "Q4 Beats on shares; Guidance implies a slow start to Q1."
LTD sells intimate apparel, personal care, women's clothes and beauty products through Limited, Limited Express, Victoria Secret & Bath & Body works. LTD reported operating income of $621 million. LTD says: "now expects February comps in the negative low double digit range verses its previous guidance for negative mid to high single digit comps."
LTD March option implied volatility of 48 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Level 3 Communications, BT Group and Limited Brands were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Merriman downgraded shares of Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Neutral from Buy, as they believe the risks outweigh the rewards until the company can complete its integration and turn FCF positive.
BT Group Plc (NYSE: BT) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Lehman to reflect the company's slowing revenue growth.
Bear downgraded Limited Brands Inc (NYSE: LTD) to Peer Perform from Outperform, citing the unfavorable macro backdrop, execution issues and management turnover.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Societe Generale lowered its rating on GlaxoSmithKline Plc (NYSE: GSK) to Hold from Buy.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Cox Radio Inc (NYSE: CXR) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
With numerous retail stocks hitting multi-year lows and daily headlines about weak consumer spending, something is interesting is happening: The people who should know the most about these companies, the insiders, are buying their own stock at an unprecedented clip, reports Bloomberg.
Executives at Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) and Dillards (NYSE: DDS) have been scooping up their own beaten-down stock. Executives at Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) and Chico's (NYSE: CHS) have also been significant buyers.
Is this a bullish signal? Perhaps. After all, it's been said that while CEOs sell their shares for all kinds of reasons, they only buy stock for one reason: they think it's going up. That's a pretty good maxim, but it can lead you astray in some cases.
Tonight could prove to be one of those rare times when men and women everywhere will not be fighting over what to watch on television as the nation tunes in to the 2007 Victoria's Secret fashion show. What will be slightly different this time around will be the importance that the show places on its Pink line, a collection of clothes aimed at the college and young teen crowd [subscription required].
Sales at Victoria's Secret have been struggling lately as a result of declining mall visitors, as well as a couple of nasty fashion mistakes at its stores. There has been one bright spot, however, the company's Pink line. The retail line includes items such as colorful underwear, pajamas, clothing and accessories, all aimed at a younger-than-traditional Victoria's Secret audience.
The retailer's parent company, Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), has already posted a dismal 48% drop in net income for its third quarter, and has warned investors not to expect too much out of its fourth quarter results either.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.
Target
Rival home improvement chains 
A few years back, 
With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase. 
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With numerous retail stocks hitting multi-year lows and daily headlines about weak consumer spending, something is interesting is happening: The people who should know the most about these companies, the insiders, are buying their own stock at an unprecedented clip, 
Tonight could prove to be one of those rare times when men and women everywhere will not be fighting over what to watch on television as the nation tunes in to the 
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