The movie business is changing, my friends. According to the following Hollywood Reporterarticle, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) intends to release its DVD products to retail shelves and video-on-demand at the same time -- the so-called "day-and-date" paradigm. CEO Jeff Bewkes announced this plan during Time Warner's earnings conference (check out Jon Ogg's coverage of the media conglomerate's quarter). Bewkes seemed satisfied that experiments with the strategy worked out well, proving that issues of cannibalization are overblown and that the margin scenarios are too cool to ignore. And, oh, those margins are awesome -- whereas you're talking maybe as high as 30% for a disc, a VOD protocol might yield 70%. That is a huge difference. And wait, here's another Hollywood Reporter piece coming online as I was writing this article, this one about Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) wanting in on the day-and-date excitement. The trade paper is reporting that iTunes will announce that it has struck a deal with the major studios -- as well as Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) -- to release movies on its platform day-and-date with DVD releases.
Lionsgate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) came out on top this past weekend. According to Boxofficemojo, the studio's film The Forbidden Kingdom took in about $20.9 million at domestic movie theaters, driven perhaps by the star power of Jackie Chan. That's more than I thought it would do. (I should point out, though, that all the numbers discussed here are based on estimates -- finalized figures will be out at a later date.)
Forgetting Sarah Marshall, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, was second with $17 million (I also thought this might do less). Jason Segel is the star of the TV series How I Met Your Mother and was also on one of my favorite TV shows, Freaks and Geeks. Then we have Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Prom Night, which came in third with $9 million. That was quite a drop from last week's $20 million debut. In fact, going back to the spiel about estimates vs. final numbers, when I covered the box office winners last week, Prom Night was originally credited with a $22.7 million take -- this was eventually reduced to $20.8 million. I went and saw the movie last Thursday afternoon by myself -- I literally walked into a completely empty auditorium, first time that ever happened in my life (it was a large auditorium, too). Talk about creepy. Nevertheless, I guess I can see why Prom Night is fading so fast (it wasn't that bad of a film, I should mention). Sony's 88 Minutes and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Nim's Island took fourth and fifth places, respectively.
But the big story of the weekend could be found in Lions Gate's triumph. The little studio scored again. One has to wonder when one of the majors, or perhaps a consortium of private equity concerns, is going to finally step up to the plate and buy it out. Those speculating on such an outcome have been waiting a long, long time. I like to follow Lions Gate, and I'm waiting for its stock to break out at some point -- it's got to happen one of these days.
Disclosure: I own shares of General Electric; positions can change at any time.
Who was the big winner at the box office this weekend? It was Sony (NYSE: SNE) and its 21 movie starring Kevin Spacey. According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, the film took in over $23 million in its first three days of release. Looks like the market is finally getting at least a little tired of News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! -- it fell to second place, raking in about $17 million, enough to put it beyond the coveted -- although not so impressive anymore -- $100 million mark.
Here, though, is the big surprise of the weekend from where I'm sitting -- maybe I'm not with it or something, but I thought that Superhero Movie was going to dominate. It was released by MGM and Dimension. How in the world could this have missed? It came in third with a horrible estimate of $9.5 million -- let's hope that number gets revised upward, because a gross of less than $10 million for a movie that should have been popular to the Scary Movie generationis pretty embarrassing. It seemed to have an effective marketing campaign, though; the commercials described what looked like a fun time at the multiplex, bringing home the fact that the spoof of films such as Spider-Man and X-men probably contained quite a few bellylaugh moments. Guess the timing just wasn't there for it.
According to Boxofficemojo, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! is still selling a lot of tickets at the domestic box office, earning about $25 million over the Easter weekend. Its cumulative total now stands at approximately $86 million. That performance was good enough for the film to retain its number-one standing for the second weekend in a row. This isn't terribly surprising, since quality family pictures have a good chance of doing well during holiday periods.
During the weekend, I composed a post about the Tyler Perry franchise and its importance to shareholders of Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF). Well, I was wrong about its potential in regard to Drillbit Taylor, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA). While Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns is estimated to have grossed about $20 million in theaters, Taylor is credited with about half that amount. Apparently, the comedic star-power of Owen Wilson wasn't enough to trump the popularity of Tyler Perry's cinematic storytelling; Browns came in at second place, and it should be noted that its per-theater average was much higher than Horton's.
The weekend is here, and that means a lot of people are heading to the multiplexes in search of entertainment. And it isn't just any weekend -- it's Easter weekend, so studios are hoping that they can capture some revenue magic during the three-day frame. The new movies up for competition include Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Drillbit Taylor, a comedy featuring Owen Wilson, and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Shutter, a spooky horror flick centered around photography.
The film I'm most curious about is Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns, which is being released byLions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF). That's because Tyler Perry has become a successful brand for Lions Gate. His films seem to have a good chance of opening relatively strongly, and Perry's last flick, Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married, did well last fall, taking in over $55 million at the domestic box office, according to Boxofficemojo.com. The Tyler Perry franchise offers a nice contrast to Lions Gate's other big-name series -- this would be, of course, the bloody and vicious Saw series.
I think Meet the Browns will do very well this weekend, but I'm not certain it will be able to jump ahead of Drillbit Taylor. I'm hoping I get a chance to see the latter, as it looks like a nice vehicle for Wilson; plus, John Hughes and Seth Rogen had a hand in the writing of the movie, along with Kristofor Brown. Lions Gate shareholders should welcome Tyler Perry's latest release, and cheer it on during this holiday box-office period.
Disclosure: I don't currently own any of these companies in my portfolio; positions can change at any time.
Mammoths and multiplexes go hand in hand, apparently, especially if said mammoths are of the CGI variety. According to Boxofficemojo, 10,000 B.C., Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) prehistoric epic, pounded the rest of its competition like an angry caveman warrior clubbing a saber-toothed tiger (I didn't see the film, but I assume this happened at some point during the plot). The film is estimated to have taken in over $35 million (final numbers are due later today) at domestic theaters over the weekend. Disney (NYSE: DIS) couldn't even come close to Time Warner -- its family comedy, College Road Trip, right now stands at a gross of $14 million, which was at least good enough for second place. Erstwhile Disney Channel phenomenon Raven-Symone star in the flick, so at least there was a little bit of synergy in that respect -- Disney is nothing if not about synergy, as we all know.
Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Vantage Point came in third, and Time Warner's Semi-Pro, starring the hilarious Will Ferrell, came in fourth. Lions Gate's (NYSE: LGF) The Bank Job, which achieved fifth position,actually did pretty well, considering that its per-theater average of approximately $3500 was much higher than the per-theater average for the two films above it.
Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) reported Q3 earnings after the bell on Monday. Revenue growth was pretty cool, roaring up by double digits to just under $291 million. Unfortunately, the studio could only wring about $2 million from all that top-line take in terms of bottom-line income -- that translated to two measly pennies per share of diluted earnings. In the previous year's quarter, Lions Gate achieved $0.17 per diluted share. Talk about a drop! Earnings.com reported that analysts were hoping for $0.07 per share.
Lions Gate is big on mentioning its free cash flow position, a measure that oftentimes cuts through the vagaries of GAAP income and indicates how well a company is doing at generating the green stuff. Unfortunately, shareholders will be disappointed at this metric as well -- according to the company's calculations in the earnings release, free cash flow dropped like a rock into the abyss, declining 87% to $6.4 million. Increases in total expenses hit the earnings growth, while changes in working capital affected the cash flow.
Keep in mind that Lions Gate operates in the up-and-down world of movies; not every quarter is going to be a good one. The key thing to remember about Lions Gate is that it is for investors looking to get a more direct exposure to the movie industry than is possible with bigger media conglomerates such as Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA). As such, these kinds of quarters are inevitable, and a longer-term mindset is requisite. Not only that, but a big thesis behind Lions Gate is the possibility that it will eventually be acquired because of its valuable library -- Lions Gate is responsible for the Saw horror films featuring that sadistic trap-setting crackpot Jigsaw, the popular Tyler Perry features, and the bloody Hostel flicks. That isn't far-fetched at all. For now, however, the stock has been trading in a tight range, and it has been oftentimes categorized as dead money.