Please join me later today when I will be live blogging Google's earnings:
Where: Google Earnings: Live Blog
When: 4:00pm EST


If IBM (NYSE: IBM) gives us any clue as to the technology sector's ability to maintain insulation from the financial chaos we have been dealing with, we may see a glorious rebound for Google shareholders. But remember: IBM actually sells tangible products and services that can be bought with non-dollar currencies. In yesterday's earnings release, IBM Global services was reported as the top revenue generator for the period. So, it is possible that the strength of foreign currencies helped to provide a good portion of IBM's profits.

Perhaps Google will be able to capitalize on some of the currency exchange benefit; but probably not with any real significance. This is just one of the line items that we are going to find out after the close.

Home improvement giant Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) will get its chance to impress Wall Street tomorrow morning when it reports its second quarter numbers before the market opens. It has been a tough couple of months for home builders recently, and tomorrow morning we will see just how hard the slowdown has been for Home Depot.

If recent history is any indication, it could be an ugly day for the Atlanta based home retailer. The last time the company reported earnings was back on May 15, when it disappointed and missed estimates by 6 cents, showing earnings of 53 cents per share verse analyst estimates for 59 cents during its fiscal first quarter.

Out of the last four quarters, the company has managed to match estimates just one quarter. I wish I could say that I think this will be the quarter that the company turns things around, but I don't. The housing market has just been too brutal, and home builders have been too hard hit to put too much confidence in Home Depot's ability to come through this past quarter. Let's hope that I am wrong.

Shares of Hansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ:HANS) were trading up almost 17% before its conference call started. At the end of the call shares were still up about 13.5% at $47.20.

We noted early this morning how the company was chugging earnings, and shares went up even further. Overall, the interpretation was that the company is trying to be very conservative.

Here are some of the comments from the conference call (2:32PM EST)
Chairman Rodney Sachs said it will be difficult to ramp sales like last year and it sees more gradual sales increases from here. The company's accounts receivable increase and DSO's were up a bit as a large customer (Cadbury) takes longer to pay. The increase in net sales in June were much higher than in December, and that contributed to DSO's being up from end of last year. The company called its inventory only a nominal increase, particularly since its days of inventory is lower now. Accounts payable rose threefold, but it says this was in-line with growth and cost of goods was much higher as it is gearing up production this time of year. Deferred revenues almost doubled on receipts from distributors.

2:45 PM GUIDANCE: Sales into July sales are up 43% in the company, Monster are up well over 50%, but any reason for it looking under plan is that it was a short month on delivery days and it believes it will normalize. The company had some product shortages in the new java sales that are being deferred to August.

As far as the market and market share, it has increased year of year even though there was a dip from a new competing Red Bull and Rockstar releases. It thinks it has 24% of market share in its category how it measures internally. Pepsico' Inc's (NYSE: PEP) brand of specialty drink is losing market share according to the company and is cannibalizing its Mountain Dew brand. The category is still quite healthy, although the growth of the category slowdown has to be expected as size rises. It is starting to open new accounts but taking a little longer than anticipated on expansion. Canada is doing well and growing working within the Pepsi system arrangement and doing promotions there. The brand is being well-received in Baja Mexico and it is doing well and they are happy with it. Other international operations are being explored and have begun talking to partners, but the company doesn't want to rush it. Continuing to improve efficiency. Sponsorships has increased as far as marketing, but that should decrease rest of year. Merchandise displays is expensive but works well in stores.

To read Part 1 of live blog of TWX conference call, see this post.

9:40 am: SUMMARY OF Q&A:

WONG from Bear Stearns on CABLE asks about integrations and roll-out of commercial phones.
ANSWER: LA is complicated and may take a year and a half; think "we'll" lose some in first half 2007 and gain it back in the second half because of line-up changes. Other system measurement in other cities is how this conclusion is drawn. DALLAS is consistent and 2007 is a stabilizing year with a plant upgrade and digitalphone launch (available to 1/4 million now and will be available to 500K in March). CAP-EX is "450 to 550," lower than they originally expected.

MAVEN of Sanford Bernstein: What are you seeing on AOL pageviews without stabilization or growth?
ANS: the reason they think it will grow in 2007 is after a 4-5% decline in Q4 2006; they moved several titles out of the mix and that accounted for part of the drop. The new sign-ups may be accounting for part of the drop; as that continues to move to free they think it will lead to a base of page views increasing. Email is seeing page view growth and this is a precursor to overall increases down the road. The broadband usage is often 50% more views per sub, and they aretrying to switch them. The new search tool is going to increase. ANOTHER QUESTION on the TENURED BASE: it hasn't been fully broken out but they want to discuss in a call-back.

Q: SINGER of COWEN & CO....On publishing are all the personnel changes done and what sort of EBITDA do they see in 3 years.
ANS: They want to see EBITDA Growth in 2007 on all businesses including publishing.
Even Time Magazine they want to see growth in EBITDA in 2 years but they aren't proviong guidance.

Q: JESSICA REIF COHEN of MERRILL LYNCH: ON CABLE GROWTH AND PROGRAMMING COSTS UP? ALSO ON MORE COLOR FOR REVENUE OPPORTUNITIES IN AD AND BUSINESS OFFERINGS?
ANS: the earnings going up in 06 in Turner and HBO but maybe not revenues; the loss of non-Sopranos were lumpy as a result; net margin is steady; CNN saw revenue and earnings up; as well as cartoons. Q4 had some programming one-time costs that were attributed to marketing and were 'lumpy' and impacted from shut down costs at WB and Turner by $114 million, but not indicative of a full-year. The HBO has tough comparables because of Soprano's. ON CABLE: They said it's too early in 2007 to give real guidance right now; but the small-mid business has potential for entire size of residential.

Q: NOTO of GOLDMAN SACHS: How much of margin gap can they bring up for Adelphia users? At AOL is it more leveraged and seeing better CPM's?
ANS: as far as what can happen with costs they cant really forecast exact number even though they have it in plans. To increase the margin gap will come from revenue side, so out of the 10% gap they want to bring up penetration and revenues. Since they are coming out of bankruptcy there is no low hanging fruit is what PARSON's keyed in on. ANOTHER Q: When do they see the triple-bundle help growth? ANS: in second half in LA/DALLAS; 80% of core sub-loss is solely from LA & DALLAS.

JASON of CITIGROUP: There is a controversy on Verizons fiber roll-out and video penetration; do they see the same adoption rate at TWC? ANS: The roll-out is comparable but overbuilders only cover 3% overlap right now and reduces the ability of others to compete. Video from them is not really a difficult challenge. ANOTHER Q: In last MAY Investor Day, do they expect to move to 1 GIG in all markets? That speed is more coincidental and switching will be to more than enough capacity.

LAST Q: CREDIT SUISSE: On AOL about optimism for 2007 online market growth or will it slow? IS there an optimal number of a basing out in paying access subscribers? ANS: Growth in ad revenues industry wide will grow in 2007 like it did this year, but not 20% to 30% for 100 years. They want to grow at or above industry and taking share. ON optimal subscriber numbers, the cost structure is not where it cant make it efficient and economical; but no specific numbers. It wants to go for broadband users down the road and they want to move and offer the broadband to subs because they are the lions share of the future.

CONFERENCE CALL ENDED.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) first quarter earnings were strong, with revenue of $10.8 billion and net income of $3.48 billion. Everyone is looking forward, and investors don't know quite what to think: at first blush of the earnings release, the stock was down a few cents, and now has recovered in after hours trading to $28.52, up 17 cents from the market close.

Colleen Healy and Chris Liddell have just gotten on the conference call for the usual disclaimers.

2:38 p.m. [all times Pacific]: all results have come in at or above the high end of guidance, says Chris proudly. If you've never heard his voice, it's worth it: he sounds like a proud and very financially-savvy butler. He points out that the company is averaging one acquisition a month -- I don't know if I've even noticed. I'll have to pay more attention.

2:42 p.m. Colleen is giving details on first quarter performance, briefly, "in order to allow more time for your questions." It's all about the questions... She says the company made significant development on "all the products in the pipeline" and points out how the company's 11% revenue growth was driven by well-received new product launches, especially in the previously mentioned Entertainment and Devices division a.k.a. the Xbox 360.

2:45 p.m. Strong performance in the small and medium business divisions. Non-annuity growth was relatively week due to the anticipation (apprehension) of new Vista and SQL server software.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) revenue: $8.7 billion, down 12% from third quarter 2005. Intel net income: $1.3 billion, down 31% from third quarter 2005. Earnings per share: 22 cents. Beating expectations by five cents a share: priceless.

Yep. My first draft headline was something like "Intel slides, dips, down, yuck" but after checking out after-hours trading I had to begrudgingly admit that sometimes, down is good! In a minute, the webcast of earnings will be beginning, and I'll be liveblogging it. As I finish the call, I note that the initial after-market-close euphoria has worn off a bit, and the after-hours trading is now around $21.06, just a touch up from close of $20.90.

2:32 p.m. [all times Pacific]: The call is beginning. Alex Lenke, Investor Relations manager, will be host. He either (a) is very nervous or (b) has been told to enunciate very very carefully. He sounds like an unusually friendly, cute and geeky robot.

2:34 p.m.: CEO Paul Otellini takes over. He's pushing the "record shipment in mobile and server product segments" and is pleased about the huge number of new products. "The industry recognizes our clear leadership in core microarchitecture." Factories have been "executing extremely well" and the 45 nanometer processors are coming out on schedule (which is, I think, what my brother -- an electrical engineer who works for the company -- does. Cool).

2:37 p.m.: They see WiMAX as a major part of the company's strategy. Happy to move the Pentium 4 into lower price points. Lauds the "biggest ad campaign in years." Headcount declined, on track to be at 92,000 employees by the end of next year. They want to be agile enough to deliver a new core or shrink every year.

8:02 a.m. As I wrote yesterday, Strategic Decision #1: Steve Ballmer's decision to speak today, "directly to investors." He'll be answering questions from the little guy and the question on everyone's lips: will he be defensive?

8:04 a.m. Ballmer wants to speak about the business from both the perspective of an investor and a manager, and he promises not to yell at the audience. Heh. He starts out by saying that the next 10 years has as much potential for world-changing strides in computers and software as the last 10 years, and he's excited to be part of a company which "invests, profits from, and takes advantage of the incredible opportunity there is to innovate."

8:06 a.m. The thing that will change in the next 10 years? Digital writing. "Pencil and paper will be replaced by superior technology that is digital. And somebody will have the ability to benefit from that technology." He already sounds both (a) angry and (b) frantic. Maybe it's just his thang.

The big news today from eBay's analyst day was that Meg Whitman was promising: now, with even more revenue growth! Her presentation, and that of the other executives from eBay proper, PayPal and Skype, were really great. Evidently, either (a) you investors weren't watching or (b) without the analysts to tell you if it was good, you weren't ready to pull the trigger. After all, if a company talks to the analysts through market close, how can they affect the market? The stock was down a teeny bit, six cents, to $34.11, on a bit better-than-average volume.

Well. If you were online with me, you were armed with more info (you know, to toot my own horn, and all). I filled you in about eBay's view of their craigslist investment; how they planned to create synergies with Skype; how proud was the company of their 7% of worldwide long distance minutes; how PayPal will soon let you buy used books at your neighbor's yard sale with your mobile phone; and how $3 billion in cash was withdrawn from ATMs via PayPal debit cards. If I had to pick one thing I came away from those hours of watching Meg & team present (I mean, something substantial... I could go on forever about fashion choices but this isn't the style blog) it was that they really believe in their vision and they are fantastic at describing it. I was feeling a little scared off by the stock's rich price, but after listening to Meg, Bob, and the Skype and PayPal execs tell me about how they're going to change the world? Boy do I want to be along for the ride.

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

Why did eBay take a stake in craigslist, the everyman's online classifieds? It made sense to me immediately, although I don't think I could put it in dollars and cents: for me and my friends, craigslist is IT (and, it turns out, we didn't find this particular IT on eBay). I got my job, my friends, my gossip, my double stroller, and someone to pick up my beat-up dryer on craigslist. It's how we all connected locally - and it's not nearly so efficient to buy or sell a large but relatively low-value item (hello appliances & baby goods) on eBay.

Meg answers an analyst question about craigslist by saying this: "We say - increasing returns on a city-by-city basis with craigslist. It's the theory that the buyers go where the sellers are, and the sellers go where the buyers are; we see it as, where classifieds get to a critical mass." Translated to say: newspaper classifieds are so over but it wasn't eBay which demolished them: it was craigslist. My question is, how do you monetize that? I suppose time will tell. I'd hate to see craigslist start charging for listing garage sale announcements and, yep, those beat-up old washers and dryers. Meg says that eBay will allow craigslist to remain autonomous (and, one would hope, still free but for job listings). We shall see.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and next time I have cash to invest, I think I'm buying some more.]

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

Skypecasts and Skype Me! are the names of the game: the answer to "how will eBay integrate Skype with PayPal and auctions?"

Everyone wants to hear more from our favorite CEO, Meg Whitman, and she has taken back the stage after lunch. She discusses the integration between Skype and eBay, raves about Skypecasts, and tells the gathered analysts: eBay transactions that allow potential buyers to "Skype Me" sell for twice the sales price of the transactions, that don't. Her keynote address is that "eBay provides your online reputation, PayPal provides your wallet, and Skype provides your online presence." She makes the argument that you will soon be able to take all of these aspects of your "self" with you wherever you go; "the internet will no longer be just a destination, but the fully integrated and ever present part of your lives."

[Tim Beyers from Motley Fool agrees with Meg: in his opinion, Skypecasts are a fantastic justification for Skype's $2.6 billion purchase price.]

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

According to Skype President Rajiv Dutta, over 7% of worldwide long distance minutes are over Skype. That's truly incredible. Skype is such a young company, too, and far more penetrated in Northern Europe than anywhere else (it was founded in Great Britain). The possibility for growth seems fairly huge. Will it justify the $2.6 billion acquisition cost? More on that, later, as we talk integration. What it will do is give some hope to the people who wonder at the eye-popping richness of a 50x P/E ratio.

I want to just focus on the numbers but Skype is about "conversations," as the execs are telling us, so I'll describe the entirely adorable presentation introduction, in which a middle-aged man somewhere in England talks to his mom over Skype. She's still in her bathrobe. Oh. My. God. I fall over from the cuteness and spend several minutes under my desk.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and I am responsible for some tiny fraction of those long distance minutes talked on Skype.]

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

"I'll pay you back next time." How many times have you heard that? PayPal wants to change all that by allowing person-to-person payments via your mobile phone. If you are a PayPal executive and you're buying a case of wine in Napa Valley, no need to tote a bunch of cash -- just let your friend pick up the case on his credit card and you can PayPal him back a couple of bills in the parking lot (before putting the half-case in the trunk of your Mercedes sedan, of course). I'm psyched, because next time I go to the Goodwill outlet, and my friend Larissa and I go diving for funky thrift items to re-sell on eBay, we can combine our loot (it's less per pound the more you buy) and I can pay her back instantaneously. Or how 'bout this: garage sales! It's brilliant. If I could use my PayPal account at garage sales, I'd buy so much more.

This is working now, and a new feature that was just released: text-to-pay. There's a demonstration of how it works; the presenter buys a Walk The Line DVD from his phone with his PayPal account (a UPS deliveryman brings it immediately -- yeah, you're cute, eBay). It's great, but you could already buy that DVD with your cell phone (yeah, you had to call the 800 number and tell them your credit card number, etc. - but still. Not changing the world). You can't use your credit card at a garage sale. Your buddy doesn't have a credit card acceptor when you split the check. That's where PayPal makes a difference, in my opinion.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and I've been known to sell things on eBay, purchased at the Goodwill outlet, for a profit.]

Today is eBay's Analyst Day, and we're watching the webcast to glean any important bits of info for you. Stay tuned for more throughout the afternoon.

eBay is really three brands now: eBay, Skype and PayPal. The PayPal team is on now, and after an introduction by a hugely pregnant woman whose presentation was excellent (but I was in such admiration of her belly that I had a hard time focusing), we got some numbers. This one was interesting to me: $3 billion has been withdrawn using PayPal debit cards.

I have a PayPal debit card, and I can't tell you how nice it was to be able to use funds from eBay sales instantaneously (to buy coffee at Starbucks, naturally). This figure really illustrates how widely the PayPal service has penetrated the interperson payment marketplace.

[Disclaimer: I own a few shares of eBay, and have been known to buy groceries, lattes and glasses of yummy red wine with my PayPal debit card.]