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Live Nation: Buy or Avoid After Q4 Performance?

Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), a business centered on music concerts, one that counts Madonna and U2 among its portfolio of artists, promoted its fourth-quarter numbers earlier in the week. After browsing the data, and considering comments on guidance, I'm not sure I would want to buy the stock, even after seeing that it closed on Friday at a 52-week high.

According to BusinessWeek, Live Nation booked an operating loss of $64 million during the three-month period (adjusted operating income was positive, however). Sales went down well over 4%. Free cash flow for the full year, though, as detailed in a table right at the beginning of the press release, came in at nearly $59 million. That table also provides financial information for Ticketmaster, which recently merged with Live Nation.

Continue reading Live Nation: Buy or Avoid After Q4 Performance?

Options Update: Live Nation volatility low into EPS and Ticketmaster merger

Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), a producer of live concerts, closed at $7.19. LYV is expected to report Q3 EPS soon. LYV and Ticket master (NASDAQ: TKTM) announced a merger of equals in February 2009. Antitrust regulators have been reviewing the merger. LYV November option implied volatility is at 73, December is at 70; verses its 26-week average of 79, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Ticket master closed at $10.59. TKTM November option implied volatility is at 66, December is at 63; verses its 26-week average of 73, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Warner Music volatility flat, Live Nation low

Warner Music (NYSE: WMG) closed at $5.11. WMG August and November option implied volatility of 92 is near its 26-week average of 96, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) a producer of live concerts, closed at $4.70. LYV over all option implied volatility of 77 is below its 26-week average of 109, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Live Nation's Q1 misses expectations by significant amount

Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), a promoter of concerts and merchandise, took the stage on Thursday and played the entire set of its latest earnings numbers for Wall Street's rock fans. Unfortunately, some of the musical metrics were completely off-key.

For the first quarter, Live Nation said that revenues dipped by over 6%. Currency translations affected the top line, so if you strip them out, you get an increase of nearly 3%. The loss from continuing operations expanded by an earsplitting 40% to $1.29 per share. According to this news article, analysts were looking for a loss of only $0.82 per share.

Continue reading Live Nation's Q1 misses expectations by significant amount

Ticketmaster receives subpoenas from the U.S. Justice Department

With a potential playoff position looming for my Columbus Blue Jackets, I have been looking into the possibility of purchasing tickets online. I don't live in Columbus, and I can't take the time to go and camp out in front of the arena for tickets the night before - so I am willing to suck it up and actually pay the service fees that *gulp* Ticketmaster (NASDAQ: TKTM) charges. Of course, I guess I could suck it up like so many Leonard Cohen fans did and try to get the tickets through a ticket broker (and pay a ton of money), right?

Continue reading Ticketmaster receives subpoenas from the U.S. Justice Department

Live Nation not so lively in Q4

Live Nation (NYSE: LYV), the big, famous concert promoter that counts Madonna as a member of its roster, reported dismal Q4 results on Monday after the bell. A huge write-down in goodwill related to a bad decline in market capitalization led to a loss per share of $4.33. That was many times more than the year-ago loss of 25 cents per share in the similar period. According to this source, Live Nation lost 89 cents per share on an adjusted basis. Wall Street was thinking that maybe the promoter would lose 22 cents per share. Quite the disparity there, eh?

Looking through the press release, I see that there's a lot going on in terms of acquisitions and adjustments. Overall, I came away less than thrilled with the business. I wasn't taken by the statement of cash flows, and I have to wonder how difficult it will be to close on the Ticketmaster (NASDAQ: TKTM) merger. There's talk of antitrust issues.

Continue reading Live Nation not so lively in Q4

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: HOT, GOOG, WPI, LYG ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Baird upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT), Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) and Marriott (NYSE: MAR) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and indications that negative sentiment has reached a bottom.
  • Citigroup upgraded Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Buy from Hold as they find the valuation attractive and think management can grow earnings and book value in 2009/2010. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered their target price to $37 from $45.
  • ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  • Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was upgraded at Natixis to Buy from Hold.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: HOT, GOOG, WPI, LYG ...

Canadian rock band Nickelback latest music act to join Live Nation

According to a Billboard report Tuesday morning, Live Nation Inc. (NYSE: LYV) "has entered into a long-term global partnership" with Canadian rock band Nickelback, following other high profile acts U2, Madonna, and Jay-Z. The reported $50-$70 million deal is set to commence after the band finishes its current deal with Road Runner Records, a record label in the Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG), and will include three tours and albums with the possibility of a fourth left open. Virtually every aspect of the band's career will be managed and distributed via Live Nation, and the band will begin touring in Live Nation venues as soon as next year.

Reuters further reports that the band has two albums and a greatest hits album left with Road Runner Records, with the band's last album selling 10 million copies. The news source speculates that the deal could be expensive if the band's new albums in the future fail to deliver the success that the band has enjoyed to date. The deal also throws into question the value of Road Runner Records after Warner Music Group bought the label in December 2006 for $73.5 million. Despite other high profile artists, Nickelback is the label's most successful act.

Live Nation has raised the stakes for music companies since beginning to sign major artists last year. By offering services for nearly every aspect of those acts' careers, Live Nation means managing careers are simplified in theory. In addition, the growth of the digital music market has made it easier for the company and the acts it signs to distance the services from the tendencies associated with music companies and traditional recordings deals. Unfortunately, since the deals have yet to commence for any artist, the success of deals such as this have yet to be seen.

Bono applauds Radiohead for the method used to release 'In Rainbows'

Despite criticism by Irish band U2's manager Paul McGuinness over Radiohead's method for releasing In Rainbows last October, U2's lead singer Bono has published an open letter in NME disagreeing and applauding Radiohead for the album and how it was released. McGuinness told the BBC in early June that the method was "a failure and backfired" because "it still resulted in over 60%-70% of listeners acquiring the album through illegal channels."

Bono's letter to NME, printed in last week's issue, takes a sharp left turn from his manager's opinion, calling Radiohead "courageous and imaginative in trying to figure out some new relationship with their audience." Bono also remarked how "blessed" he feels "to be around at the same time" as "a sacred talent" like Radiohead. U2 have recently taken steps to reach their audience, joining forces with Live Nation Inc. (NYSE: LYV) in a deal that will market their music and concerts with related products from one location.

U2 is still signed to Universal Music Group for the band's record releases, which may have been one reason McGuinness came out against the method Radiohead used last year. Neverthless, the disagreement between manager and lead singer is insignificant compared to the applaud Radiohead continue to receive from fellow artists. Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails, a band that was also signed to Universal Music Group, has also come out in support of Radiohead's method, even though he, too, took issue with some aspects of it. Reznor has since released two NIN albums the same way.

Newspaper wrap-up: UBS reportedly hires Lazard to conduct strategic review

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The stock is up 150% over the last year but with its move into the consumer marker BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is entering the fickle world of consumer trendiness, reported the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". Analysts are concerned about how big the consumer market can be for them, and then there's Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) beating down the consumer path. Smart products will help, but price is an issue, and the shares could face a hard fall.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) acknowledged it has hired The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) to study its troubled portfolios of mortgages, a move which many believe indicates the bank is gauging the market value of the loans in order to eventually sell them.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • Lazard Ltd (NYSE: LAZ) was hired by UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to undertake a strategic review of the Swiss bank's businesses, the New York Post learned.
  • The New York Post also reported some reported turmoil at Live Nation Inc (NYSE: LYV), following the abrupt departure of the concert promoter's chairman, Michael Cohl. Employees in the unit that was led by Cohl fear that the company will lay some of them off, and CEO Michael Rapino is accused of not being strongly committed to the company's mega-deal strategy.
  • The Boston Herald reported that its unions were told the newspaper will lay off 130 to 160 workers, under its new plan to outsource printing operations elsewhere in the state.

Newspaper wrap-up: Google's plans for cellphone delayed

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Last November, Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) and 30 partners were said be developing a new type of handset using Android that was expected to revolutionize the industry. The first new phones were expected to be available in this year's second half but are now slated for the fourth quarter the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • According to people familiar with the situation, the Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will make sharp cuts in its investment banking division this week.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that Live Nation Inc's (NYSE: LYV) Chairman, Michael Cohl, stepped down down as a director and executive to end the strategy feud with CEO Michael Rapino. over how to pursue the "360 deals" with music superstars.
  • The Financial Times reported that there are worries that investment banks will accelerate the pace of their layoffs this summer, after it became known that The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) gave pink slips to workers in its investment banking division last week. Goldman is now expected to lay off up to 10% of the workers at the division.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • New Jersey put its $150M center for stem cell research on hold, the Star Ledger reported, eight months after ground was broken on the project.

Newspaper wrap-up: Yahoo! reportedly plans reorganization

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to move past its takeover battle with Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is planning a reorganization. People familiar with the matter said executives are discussing a plan to centralize numerous product groups into a global-product organization. Details may be announced next week.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that an internal feud at Live Nation Inc (NYSE: LYV) over strategy may soon be resolved, as the concert promoter is reportedly negotiating the exit of chairman Michael Cohl.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • A recommendation by an Australian commission to open Rio Tinto Group's (NYSE: RTP) Pilbara railway to third parties could cost $30B if the idea is implemented, Rio contended and the Australian reported. The National Competition Commission, which advises Australian governments on infrastructure issues, has suggested that Fortescue Metals Group be given access to certain rail lines operated by Rio Tinto.
WEB SITES:
  • A joint investigation by CBC News and the Canadian Press found one-third of people shot by Taser International Inc's (NASDAQ: TASR) Tasers reportedly required some medical attention, Engadget reported.
  • TechCrunch confirmed that Joshua Schachter, the founder of delicious, will resign from Yahoo!. Sources believe the near-stalled development of the new version of delicious may have played a part in his resignation.

Rolling Stones rumored to defect EMI for Live Nation

Following the groundbreaking signings with Madonna, U2, and Jay-Z, Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) is rumored to be courting The Rolling Stones away from privately held EMI Group, according to British music newspaper NME. The newspaper quotes a report from the print edition of The Observer, that the band is going to sign a deal with Live Nation that would allow the live music events company to "take over the marketing of the group's back catalogue, worth over £3 million (roughly $6 million) a year," in addition to typical touring and merchandising rights.

The Rolling Stones have been with EMI in the UK since the band started its own label in 1970, although initially only in a distribution agreement before the band shifted to EMI's Virgin Records by 1976. The band's contract with EMI expired earlier this year and they signed a one album deal with Universal Music Group to release the soundtrack to the Martin Scorsese-helmed live film Shine A Light. In late 2005, the band also released a special compilation through Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX).

Assuming the band does not return to EMI, as this report indicates and the band has strongly denied, the band follows Paul McCartney and Radiohead, among others, on their way out of the troubled music company. However, though EMI is troubled, Live Nation has lured artists from other music companies as well. For The Rolling Stones, signing with Live Nation would be natural since the band consistently has long and successful tours, with and without the release of albums with new material. The soundtrack to Shine A Light has also sold well, with more copies sold than previous live albums from the band.

U2 manager calls for ISPs to join future-setting music industry

In a keynote presentation at the Music Matter conference in Hong Kong today, Billboard reports U2's longtime manager Paul McGuinness called for Internet service providers to stop "clinging to the past and preventing the music industry's future growth." He feels that ISPs and the music business should have "a real commercial partnership" where revenues and profits are "fairly shared" and actively prevent copyright infringement together. This is not the first time McGuinness has called out ISPs for detrimental actions toward the music industry. He used another keynote speech in January for this same theme: that ISPs work against the music industry by providing safe harbors for users who share music illegally.

In McGuinness's opinion, the music industry is charting a "way to the future" but the kind of future he describes is not too different from the music industry that caused piracy to become such a problem. Instead, he calls "Internet free-thinkers" today's business "dinosaurs" because they hold an apparently appalling view of copyright management. Above the lofty goal of eliminating piracy, these words still sound greedy and money-based before anything else.

It's the same old problem for the music industry and the managers of the artists in that business. The average consumer just wants an easy way to obtain and enjoy the product. Unfortunately, piracy has provided that method and only recently has the music industry started to understand and rethink business methods to combat the issue. McGuinness is at least correct in stating that artists should not be simple employees, but if their product is better managed by other methods, then why not leave the music industry behind? Touring promoter Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) is obviously charting a path outside the industry that is very lucrative for artists and their management. U2 recently signed a deal with the company for this very reason.

Live Nation (LYV) makes huge bet on Jay-Z

The deal could be worth $150 million. Live Nation (NYSE:LYV), which is normally in the concert business, is close to a 10-year deal that would give that company a piece of every aspect of the business dealings of rapper Jay-Z. The arrangement could hardly be more broad. According to The Wall Street Journal: "Live Nation would underwrite other of Mr. Carter's (Jay-Z) business ventures in areas such as clothing, out of a fund of $25 million; in the past, Mr. Carter has been involved in clothing and nightclub businesses."

The contract is a huge risk for Live Nation, and one that it probably should not take. Shares in the company have fallen from a 52-week high of $24.09 to $12.70. The firm's profits have been unusually modest. In the final quarter of 2007, LYV had operating income of $4 million on revenue of just of $1 billion. Debt service cost the company $16.6 million. The company has long-term debt of just under $1 billion.

While signing up huge stars for long contracts may seem to be attractive, a lot can go wrong over ten years, especially if the star in question loses much of his popularity. Live Nation has a similar deal with Madonna. Perhaps that is why the company's shares have done so poorly

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 09:22 AM

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