Banks around the world have been raising capital in the last few months. If the market is efficient, then the cost of capital for these banks should tell us something about how risky they are. Based on the relative cost of capital of banks in the U.S. compared to those in France, Germany and Switzerland, the world's riskiest banks are right here in the good old USA. The safest banks? French ones.
How so? Here is the rough (due to different capital structures) after-tax cost of capital for the banks in different countries:
- U.S.: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is paying a 17% interest rate and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) pays almost 17%
- UK: Barclays pays 16%; HBOS, Lloyds TSB; and Royal Bank of Scotland pay about 12%
- Germany: Commerzbank pays 10%
- Switzerland: UBS's interest rate is relative bargain of 9.9%
- France: BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and four others pay the lowest rate -- 5% -- for their capital
Maybe there's some sort of trading opportunity to short U.S banks and go long French ones. C'est la vie!
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in Goldman or Morgan Stanley securities.
For a quick-read on the U.S. economy, check the price of gasoline
Closing Bell: What Friday 13th curse? (ANF, BA, GENZ, DIS, PALM, PLA)
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Recognize the ludicrous pattern
