This port was written by Minyanville contributor Minyan Peter.
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This port was written by Minyanville contributor Minyan Peter.
I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with John Snowden, contributor to The IRS Report newsletter, who says the British economy will slide deeper into recession and the markets will move lower, too.Q. What is your outlook for Great Britain's economy in the next 12 months?
A. We are on the cusp of a recession, but we have yet to feel the real crunch from a retailing viewpoint. The forthcoming all-important Christmas trading period will give more of a guideline by [the middle or end of] January. There is as yet no real sign of confidence returning, which would suggest we are in for a long haul. Borrowings are at an all-time high and will probably double again next year. This may mean higher taxes as well as labor unrest which would be detrimental for the economy.
Lower oil prices do help and commodity prices are falling, and will start to be reflected in government statistics by early next year. Hence, economy fears are turning towards deflation rather than inflation
Q: So, at what point do you expect to see actual recession in the UK?
A: My guess is that Christmas festivities may distort the reality, but I am sure that by February 2009, we in the UK will be feeling the full weight of recession.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Lloyds TSB Group PLC (NYSE: LYG) is a favorite conservative stock idea for 2007 from Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus.
"While it is not the Lloyd's of London of specialty insurance fame," points out Adamo, "this London-based financial services powerhouse has roots dating back to 1765, and operates in three segments: U.K. retail banking; insurance and investments; and wholesale and international banking. It also provides brokerage, asset management, and pension services.
"It's not exactly exciting, but I think it will noticeably outpace the market in 2007. What it has going for it is financial clout, with a $60 billion market capitalization and a current dividend yield of 5.7%. Growth in earnings is expected to come in around 12.5% from 2006 to 2007.
"Lloyds currently trades for 11.25 times expected 2007 EPS of $3.86 per share. I look for total return to come in at around 18% in 2007. Lloyds' high yield provides cover in a down market, and may add extra price appreciation as investors go for yield in a falling market. That could push total return to the 25% range.
"Another significant factor in its favor to consider is the likely appreciation of the British pound sterling against the U.S. dollar, which will provide a boost to returns for U.S. investors."
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