"I've always been a big fan of putting into the market on a regular basis regardless of what is happening in the overall market," explains Chuck Carlson, long considered one of the advisory industry's leading experts on dividend reinvestment plans.
Here, the editor of The DRIP Investor offers a 10-stock "autopilot" portfolio that is diversified among 10 high quality dividend-paying stocks and requiring a monthly investment of under $500.
Carlson says, "If I've learned anything in the more than a quarter of a century of following the markets, it is this fact - buying stocks when you know you should (i.e. during sharp down moves) is really difficult. Our heads says we should; after all, substantial market downturns create the best values.
"But our emotions usually take control, thus making it very difficult to pull the trigger and put money into the market when stocks are falling.
"That's why I've always been a big fan of 401(k) plans. With these investment vehicles, investment programs are put on 'autopilot,' with dollars being put into the market on a regular basis (usually each paycheck) regardless of what is happening in the overall market.
"Fortunately, investors can duplicate the autopilot feature of 401(k) plans with their DRIP investments by taking advantage of automatic monthly investment features provided by most DRIPs.
"Partial insulation from the economic slowdown, coupled with new military-aircraft programs, give Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) attractive capital-gains potential over the next several years," says Richard Moroney.
In his blue chip oriented Dow Theory Forecasts, the advisor explains, "A diversified business mix provides investors a measure of safety in a difficult economic climate. The stock is a Focus List Buy."
"Lockheed seems well-positioned with regards to the U.S. defense budget, with very little exposure to Iraq. The company is capable of growing profi ts even if the new U.S. president pulls troops out of the country.
"While defense-spending growth is likely to slow in coming years, ongoing security threats and the need to replace aging equipment should keep the baseline defense budget, which excludes war-related costs, growing through at least 2012.
"A diversified business mix provides investors a measure of safety in a difficult economic climate. After the Air Force, Lockheed's next-largest end market is civil government and homeland security, accounting for 26% of revenue.
"The U.S. Navy accounts for 20% of sales and the Army 10%. About 13% of sales are international, and the U.S. communications industry accounts for 3%.
It was only last week that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) caused havoc in the stock market (or at least lead the charge) downgrading Citigroup Inc.(NYSE: C), and General Motors (NYSE: GM) among others, but now they have started to express concern that some of the defense sector stocks may be vulnerable to the next president's ax.
It was only a few weeks ago I posted Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest and things continued to look bright until a few days later, perhaps after the GS behind the scenes warning started to have an impact on the market that the sector took a mysterious swoon -- now I know why.
If Goldman Sachs, one of the few investment houses with any credibility left, makes a move everyone else seems to want to get out of the way.
I have viewed the defense sector favorably this year and will not abandon ship because GS is getting cold feet. They have been rather negative on everything lately and I do not think the (stock) world is coming to an end.
The Bloomberg article notes that while some programs will be cut others will be added. It is all a guessing game as either presidential candidate will want to review the entirety of defense expenditures in a new administration.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GD.
According to the Wall Street Journal, former American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) CEO Maurice R. "Hank" Greenberg is pressing the troubled insurer to turn the company around. He says that he and other major shareholders have "deep concern about the persistent and seemingly endless destruction of value at AIG."
Hybrid Capital Second, a Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) investment vehicle, increased its stake in internet start-up Livedoor to 18.15% from 12.76% in March, the Financial Times reported, superseding the company's founder, Takafumi Horie.
OTHER PAPERS:
After it incurred $3.2B of bad debts in the first three months of the year, the Telegraph reported that Knight Vinke, an HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC) shareholder, has renewed calls for the bank to shed its U.S. consumer finance business.
After hitting a one-year low of $88.86 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $113.74 in October. LMT opened this morning at $103.99. So far today the stock has hit a low of $103.79 and a high of $108.00. As of 12:45, LMT is trading at $107.08, up $3.29 (3.1%). The chart for LMT looks bearish but improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bull-put credit spread below the $95 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just two months as long as LMT is above $95 at June expiration. Lockheed Martin would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.
Defense contractor Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) posted strong earnings this morning for its first quarter of $1.75 per share, well ahead of the $1.63 analysts had been expecting.
Looking at the quarter's revenue figures, we see a nice year-over-year jump, climbing to $9.98 billion from $9.28 billion. In addition, the company lifted its full-year earnings forecast by 10 cents to $7.15 to $7.35 per share.
The company had good earnings, and lifted full year estimates, so why is the stock falling in today's action? It could be in reaction to the fact that the company's biggest division, its jet business, showed a drop in sales in the period. During the quarter, this business fell since Lockheed is in the middle of a transition from its older fighter jets to newer models such as the F-35 and F-22.
Scientists at NASA plan to put one of the twin Mars rovers to sleep and limit the activities of the other robot to fulfill a NASA order to cut $4 million from the program's budget, mission team members said Monday.
The project, which was originally supposed to run for three months, is now in its fourth year, successfully exploring the terrain of Mars. It costs NASA about $20 million to keep the project going, but due to budget cuts, the space agency is forced to put its child up for adoption, so to speak. As of yet, no billionaire has stepped up to the plate, but I am hoping that someone will soon.
For the cost of a few of your average modern missiles, we are abandoning a program that has been one of NASA's most visible and productive projects.
President Bush recently submitted a $3.1 trillion dollar budget to congress with the biggest proposed increases in defense spending, and homeland security. The Pentagon would get a $35 billion increase to $515 billion for core programs, about 7% with war costs additional (but how much is additional?) This further supports my investment posture for this year and next that the defense sector is the place to be as I posted earlier today and many times over the past few months -- the BIG BUYS.
Some of our big defense contractors, all of which should benefit to some degree include: Boeing (NYSE: BA), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). I am not suggesting that you jump into these stocks immediately, but you should add them to your watch list. Perhaps, for some investors dollar cost averaging into them over six months would make sense. Each has a varying degree of exposure to defense spending. For example, United Technologies is the parent of Sikorsky helicopters which makes the Black Hawk. Lockheed Martin and Boeing make fighter jets. Raytheon makes defense electronics and missile while General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman supply warships to the US Navy. Northrop also makes aerial vehicles that are being used in the Iraq War.
"The weak start to 2008 has left many investors scrambling for a safe haven in which to stash their cash," notes Jocelynn Drake, who sees the defense sector as one such haven.
The analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research explains, "The recent losses suffered by many of the defense-sector components has brought them back to long-term support, creating potentially strong buying opportunities."
"In addition, they are all currently resting right near support at their ascending 10-month moving averages. These stocks have benefited from this long-term support level and could use their respective trendlines as springboards to launch them on the next leg of their uptrends.
"What also makes these stocks very appealing from a bullish perspective is that short-term options players are very skeptical of the stocks' outlooks. As a result, options speculators have loaded up on bearish bets toward these securities in an attempt to call a top to their rallies.
Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) shares are trading higher today after competitors Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) both posted positive earnings reports today, in the wake of LMT's positive release yesterday. Additionally, Lockheed announced today that the company was awarded a $52.5 million contract to provide next generation convoy trainers to the US Marines. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on LMT.
Lockheed stock has shot up over the past three months, hitting a one-year high of $113.74 earlier this month. LMT opened this morning at $106.16. So far today the stock has hit a low of $106.15 and a high of $108.90. As of 11:05, LMT is trading at $108.70, up $1.73 (1.6%). The chart for LMT looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $90 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 3 months as long as LMT is above $90 at January expiration. Lockheed would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.
The company reported net earnings for the quarter of $766 million, up from $629 million in the same quarter of 2006. Diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.80, well above analyst expectations of $1.64 and up from $1.46 in 2006. The performance supports the company's July updated projection that 2007 EPS will reach $6.70-$6.85.
Most impressively, each of the four business segments comprising Lockheed reported gains. Operating profits for Aeronautics was up 12.4%, primarily due to strong combat aircraft sales. Electronic Systems rose 12.3% due to missile and maritime sales. Information Systems and Global Services climbed 9.1% as the company's combat support services realized higher volume, and Space Systems finished 10% over same quarter 2006 thanks to satellite and missile systems sales.
In September, the company announced a 20% dividend increase for the second quarter of 2007, as well as increasing its buyback program by 20 million shares.
With a weak dollar, the emergence of new economies around the world interested in developing national defenses, and renewed interest in space programs, the company seems to have found the sweet spot in numerous markets. Investors seem to agree. The stock was up by 0.46% in early trading, to $107.70.
PDUFA date for Sanofi-Aventis SA's (NYSE: SNY) Taxotere for induction therapy of locally advanced head and neck cancer prior to chemoradiotherapy and surgery
Using a proprietary quantitative system to review 5,000 stocks based on over 100 variables, Chuck Carlson has honed in on a few "standouts" -- citing Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), PepsicCo (NYSE: PEP) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) as top blue chip bets for the current market environment.
The editor of The DRIP Investor explains, "Financials have had some rough sledding in recent months as a result of problems in the sub-prime market and the overall tight credit environment. Within that group, however, Morgan Stanley offers an excellent opportunity."
He notes that earnings in the latest quarter were impacted by problems in the credit markets, and the slowdown in mergers and acquisitions could adversely impact investment banking business going forward.
Nevertheless, he contends, the stock is discounting a lot of the problems in the industry. He says, "I remain a fan of these shares and recommend that investors take advantage of the price pullback to initiate positions."
Carlson adds, "One sector with several quality picks is industrials. Among the top stocks in the group, I especially like Lockheed Martin. I expect defense spending to remain at high levels, which is good news for the company's defense-related operations."
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The Wal-Mart Weekly: Retailer accused of sweatshop conditions in Bangladesh
Fog clearing - maybe. Clear skies - no! GE, JNJ, MRK, PG, RTN, WFC
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A fighting chance for the credit markets.
