Most of the day, the Dow Jones industrial average was in a steady, but slow decline -- the kind of drop where traders figure it's going to be a negative day, but nothing to worry too much about.

But after the much-anticipated minutes of the Federal Reserve Board's Aug. 7 meeting went public around 2 P.M. and investors didn't see the signs they were hoping for that the central bank would be willing to cut interest rates, the selling picked up. The Dow closed down about 250 points. That's less than 2% -- hardly the stuff of panic -- but more indication that a lot of professional investors are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and do it soon.

A decline in consumer confidence reported earlier in the day didn't help. It's becoming increasingly clear that the real danger with the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market is not with the financial sector. Sure, hedge funds will shut down, big banks' earnings will suffer. But the really big worry now is that the U.S. consumer could roll over.

That's the view of Robert Loest, senior portfolio manager of Integrity Mutual Funds, who visited AOL's offices today. The housing market is not going to rebound quickly or easily -- especially with so many adjustable rate mortgages still due to reset to higher rates in 2008, he warns. And he suggests investors avoid all consumer plays; not just the luxury goods stocks, but even discounters, like Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT).

Loest further recommends picking up some counter-cyclical stocks -- like bankruptcy software maker Epiq Systems (NYSE: EPIQ) or collection agency Portfolio Recovery Associates (NYSE: PRAA), both of which he owns. "Those are the kind of stocks that should do well when the economy does poorly and could make a real difference to your portfolio," he says.