Allstate Corp. (NYSE: ALL) stock is declining this morning after competitor Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) reported a fourth-quarter profit, excluding investments, of 81 cents per share, 26 cents below analysts' forecast of $1.07 per share. LTR blamed the disappointing earnings on a 50 percent decline in profit at its CNA Financial Corp (CNA) insurance affiliate, which could be a bad sign for ALL. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ALL.

After hitting a one-year high of $63.73 in May, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, ALL opened at $46.56. So far today the stock has hit a low of $45.30 and a high of $46.60. As of 11:05, ALL is trading at $45.89, down 68 cents (-1.5%). The chart for ALL looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

It goes without saying that diversification is one defense against the onset of a bear market. Further, occasionally the market offers a conglomerate that possesses many of the characteristics of a diversified mutual fund or portfolio, and with the above in mind, Loews is worth a review.

Loews (NYSE: LTR) is a holding company with operations that include property / casualty insurance, hotels, offshore oil/gas drilling, natural gas pipelines, and cigarettes. Don't confuse LTR with that other company with a similar-sounding name: LTR is a conglomerate.

Analysts really like LTR's Diamond Offshore deepwater/midwater oil rig operations, which, as one might sense, are experiencing strong demand and pricing power, given the global drive for more oil. Analysts are equally impressed by LTR's natural gas pipeline business.

I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.

The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.

• Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) $30.79. 1.9%
• Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) BG was $119.03. 0.56%
• Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) HNP was $41.75. 3.5%
• Loews Corp. (NYSE: LTR) at $49.35. 0.50%
• Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) was $13.08. 22%
• Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) RTN was $61.51. 1.65%
• Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $54.32 per share. 0.58%
• Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) VLO was $70.55. 0.66%

The crème de la crème of portfolio managers met up in New York to exchange investment ideas at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference last week. Presenters included turnaround expert Wilbur Ross, Joe Rosenberg who has managed money at Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR) forever, Bill Miller of Legg Mason Inc (NYSE: LM) and Mason Hawkins, Chairman of Southeastern Asset Management.

Some of the highlights:

• General theme was favoring large cap over small cap
• Technology is coming back into favor in addition to healthcare
• Investors should avoid Asia

Mason Hawkins ended the conference not recommending individual stocks but focusing more on investment advisory prose: have the discipline to say no, be patient and wait for the right opportunity, be willing to stand on your own when no one agrees with you, and take advantage of other peoples fear and greed. That investment advice pretty much follows the thoughts of many of the presenters.

The worst news may be out on the big home improvement retailers. At least the short community seems to be signaling that. Often when short sellers exit a sector -- especially the large companies in a sector -- it is a sign of a bottom in these stocks.

The New York Stock Exchange is out with its short interest for September. The No.10 and No.11 places for stocks with largest drops in shares short are Lowes Companies Inc. (NYSE:LOW) and The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) respectively. Lowes' short interest dropped over 5.7 million shares to 35.7 million shares. Home Depot's short interest was down almost 5.1 million shares to 27 million. These are significant decreases.

After dropping from $43.95 in March, Home Depot hit $32.85 in August. It has staged a modest recovery to $35.85. Lowes hit a 52-week high of $34.85 last December. It dropped to $25.16 last month and now stands at $28.37.

Some of the recent trends with the big companies have given weary investors some hope. Moody's upgraded Lowes debt on August 29. Improved margins and operating cash flow drove the upgrade. A Morningstar analyst trumpeted the company's prospects in Forbes.

Home Depot is no longer taking quite the beating it has over CEO pay and a slowing housing market. Even Jim Cramer has stated that strong consumer spending will continues and Home Depot, among others, will benefit.

With commodity and gas prices dropping, consumers may feel that they can afford more trips to their favorite retailers. And a better commodities picture will help margins at both Home Depot and Lowes.

The shorts may be right to unwind their negative bets.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.