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Could Google be the next Enron?

schmidt


I talk to quite a few people in the tech industry. Of course, a common topic is Google.  Some rumors actually turn out to be true.  Others are just, well, juicy rumors.

For example, I recently heard that the company's CEO, Eric Schmidt, wants to leave the company because of the antics. Hey, why not?  He's a billionaire and would, like Michael Jordan, be leaving at his peak.

This week, The Register has an interesting piece on the mysteries of Google. The title:  "Google - cult or corporation?"

For example, Google's core advertising technology is essentially a black box.  Yet thousands of advertisers are willing to trust it.

Google does not tell its advertisers what its "cut" is of the ad dollars. The other day, I talked to one potential Google customer about this and he emailed Google several times. While the Google emails were well written, the answer was always the same:  we won't tell you.  So, my friend hasn't signed up.

In the past we have seen other businesses based on black boxes. There was the hedge fund Long-Term Capital. It had several Nobel Prize laureates on its team.  The firm claimed it had an ultra-sophisticated computer system to make great investments.  But in 1998, the system imploded and even the Federal Reserve had to intervene to stave off a financial meltdown.

The Register brings up another chilling example: Enron.  Yes, this was a cultish, highly private company that built an empire by electronically trading energy.  And it was a black box.

OK, Mr. Schmidt, maybe leaving would be a good idea.

Why the markets fell: hedge fund trading could be the culprit

The reason the market has fallen so much in the last month may not be what you think. Today I spoke with a senior investment strategist for a $1 trillion mutual fund complex. In his view, the market's recent fall has less to do with concerns about inflation and much more to do with hedge fund trading.

Specifically, he thinks that hedge funds -- whose managers Vanity Fair reports are building enormous Greenwich, Conn. spreads -- have been borrowing money to buy commodities such as gold, copper, and oil as well as real estate and emerging markets stocks. They mistakenly assumed that the Fed would continue to act as though inflation was benign.

When Fed Chief Ben Bernanke expressed concern about inflation, the hedge funds' leveraged commodity bets suddenly went sour. The dollar toned up and commodities tumbled -- forcing the hedge funds to cover their leveraged bets by selling their long positions in commodities. Gold has tumbled 19% to $591 an ounce since reaching a 26-year peak in May. The Indian Sensex market index has lost over 25% of its value -- plunging from 12,612 on May 10 to 8,994 on June 13.   

Continue reading Why the markets fell: hedge fund trading could be the culprit

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DJIA+25.968,175.05
NASDAQ+5.421,403.49
S&P 500+5.16821.37

Last updated: December 02, 2008: 09:47 AM

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