Is the U.S. airline sector on the eve of another transformation? One analyst thinks it may be, if recent merger rumblings are any indication.

The Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) / Northwest Airline (NYSE: NWA) merger discussions and chatter that Germany's Lufthansa is considering an investment in a potential merger between United (NASDAQ: UAUA) and Continental (NYSE: CAL) suggest to independent equities analyst C. Leonard Bauer that a new commercial aviation paradigm may be up ahead.

"When you look back at the last 30 years, you can say that the 1980s, clearly, was the decade when mergers were needed to meet the demands of the new market, basically the mass consumer market in the U.S.," Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday. "Those larger carriers' lowered seat prices led to a huge increase in domestic travel, which helped bring flight travel to the typical citizen."

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that KKR Financial Holdings LLC (NYSE: KFN), a unit of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, revived concerns of a credit crunch after it asked for a restructuring of billions of dollars in short-term debt.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to sources, the Chicago Tribune reported that Deutsche Lufthansa AG (OTC: DLAKY) could look to take an equity stake in a merger between Continental Airlines Inc (NYSE: CAL) and UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) United Airlines.
• The Associated Press reported that the pilots' unions of Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corporation (NYSE: NWA) are unable to agree on how seniority for the companies' pilots would work under a combined carrier. The impasse puts the deal in "serious jeopardy," inside sources reported.

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• Electronics retailer Sharper Image Corporation (NASDAQ: SHRP) has filed for bankruptcy, citing declining sales and profitability, Bloomberg reported.

Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines may reach a merger agreement within weeks after sharing details of the plan with pilot unions, people close to the talks said, Bloomberg News reported Monday.

An announcement of the merger may come within weeks, Bloomberg News reported.

The merger would create the world's biggest airline in terms of traffic, Delta served about 74 million passengers in 2007; Northwest, about 56 million. The combined entity would vault past no. 1 carrier American Airlines (NYSE: AMR), which served 129.5 million passengers.

Delta's (NYSE: DAL) shares were down 23 cents to $19.95, while Northwest (NYSE: NWS) declined 23 cents to $20.62 in Monday afternoon trading.

Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Monday a Delta / Northwest represents a good operational fit, for several reasons.

Germany-based Lufthansa's announcement late Thursday that it would buy a 19% stake in JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) could lead to other airline deals, as industry players seek both economies of scale and greater international reach, according to one analyst familiar with the sector. The Lufthansa-JetBlue deal requires the approval of U.S. federal regulators.

"This could be the deal that gets the airs [airlines] in merger-mode again," analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks on Thursday.

Under U.S. law, no foreign airline can own more than 25% of a U.S. airline, and there are other restrictions that limit the foreign company's influence.

Lufthansa announced Thursday it would pay $7.27 per share for 42 million new JBLU shares, or about $300 million. That amounts to a 19% stake at Thursday's closing price, the airlines said in a joint statement Thursday. Lufthansa will also receive a seat on JetBlue's board.

Improved sector conditions

Bauer said three factors had reduced merger and acquisition talk among the airlines for several years: sub-par sector cash flow, better merger/acquisition and partnership opportunities in other sectors, and regulation.

"For the longest time, U.S. airlines were not that attractive, particularly the weaker ones, but now cash flow has improved, the sector's growth prospects are adequate and the new 'open skies' rule will mean more competition across the Atlantic, so airlines have to be ready," Bauer said. "An airline could suddenly find itself vulnerable in a previously light-competition market, so they need to be ready to partner, or to merge or buy an airline for access to new markets."

Under the "open skies" agreement, a slow deregulation of flight routes and markets between the United States and the European Union will begin in April 2008.

"The last thing a major carrier in the United States or Europe wants, for that matter, is to wake up one day and find that your market has been penetrated, and you don't have comparable positions in some of those open skies markets," Bauer said.

For the first nine months of 2007, Lufthansa reported earnings of $2.33 billion, or 1.60 billion euros, and revenue of $23.9 billion, or 16.4 billion euros.

Shares of JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) are soaring after reports that Lufthansa (OTC: DLAKY) is planning to buy about a 25% stake in the discount carrier.

"The interest from Lufthansa, which is based in Germany, is the latest example of foreign investors leveraging the strength of the euro against the dollar," according to the New York Times' DealBook blog. "By limiting its stake to 20 percent, Lufthansa would remain below federal limits on foreign ownership of a domestic airline. Though the investment will be passive, these people told DealBook, it opens up an opportunity for Lufthansa to make a bigger deal down the road, possibly some kind of partnership."

The investment may be the shot in the arm the Forrest Hills, NY-based company needs as it faces increased competition from the likes of Virgin America and Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV). Maybe it will help JetBlue expand to additional markets which should give Southwest some serious competition.

Be forewarned, investing in airline stocks is like checking bags in at the airport. People expect the worst and hope for the best.