With the markets in a swoon, marquee assets are on sale in the US. And, with the drop in the dollar, the valuations look even more compelling. Something else: the surge in commodities -- especially in oil -- is bulging the assets in mega sovereign wealth funds.
In fact, even US icons are under attack, such as Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD), which is fending off a hostile takeover from Belgium's InBev.
True, there is some good news. For example, our domestic companies will have an edge with exports (it seems that this has saved us from a recession -- at least so far). But, alas, it is little consolation.
Perhaps the most effective way to boost the value of the dollar is to increase interest rates. However, this will be a tough thing to do -- in light of the upcoming election, the housing sump and continued economic weakness.
In other words, US assets should remain cheap. And, foreign buyers can't ignore this. So, it's a good bet that we'll see more and more dealmaking from overseas.
Posted Jun 30th 2008 4:01PM by Tom Taulli Filed under: Deals
Deloitte LLP, which is over 100 years old, has built a wealth of knowledge. In fact, last year the firm posted $9.85 billion in revenues.
Well, Deloitte has put together an interesting series of small pieces – called Straight Talk guides. The goal is to help companies "rely less on guesses."
The guide that caught my attention was "M&A Lies, and Why They're Sometimes True." It's a quick read but has some valuable insights.
Keep in mind that – according to various studies – roughly half of M&A deals fail. That's certainly daunting.
But, this doesn't mean that companies should forgo deals. Rather, many companies have been particularly good at M&A, such as Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO).
Some of the pieces of Deloitte's advice include:
Don't get caught up in deal fever. After all, investment bankers can push hard (and they are incentivized to do so). Thus, if you detect some serious problems, slow things down – and perhaps even walk from the deal.
Buying a company is fairly straight forward; integration, on the other hand, can be extremely complex. In other words, as you are putting together the deal, make sure you are also planning for the post-sale activities. Actually, one of the biggest issues is forgetting about customers (one study shows that customer neglect can result in a 50% drop-off in revenues after four years).
You need to make sure you see good deals. To this end, it's important to cultivate relationships with various players, such as deal attorneys, CPAs and investment bankers.
Taxes matter. Can you find ways to lower the tax burden?
So, to get the ebook, you can go to the Deloitte site.
Today was a coin toss going into the FOMC meeting, and even after the meeting. The market could have gone either way today when the Federal Reserve said it is hoping inflation to come down later in the year and that it isn't that hawkish on inflation versus growth. Traders took the stance that rates will not be running rampantly higher by the end of summer. The other news on the economic front didn't inspire much either, as new home sales and prices in may continued their decline. Oil prices fell at one point more than $4.00 per barrel after an increase in inventory levels.
Below are the unofficial closing levels for today:
Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) saw a rise despite the short selling interest with bets against the company having risen by more than 100% to 48.4+ million shares as of June 13. Shares were up 1.3% at $46.98 in today's final minutes.
Mastercard (NYSE: MA) shares are trading higher today after the company announced it will pay competitor American Express (NYSE: AXP) up to $1.8 billion to settle an antitrust lawsuit. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MA.
After hitting a one-year low of $120.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $320.30 in May. MA opened this morning at $291.10. So far today the stock has hit a low of $290.10 and a high of $295.16. As of 12:40, MA is trading at $294.10, up $13.17 (4.9%). The chart for MA looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $195 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four months as long as MA is above $195 at October expiration. Mastercard would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MasterCard (NYSE: MA) is recently trading at $290 in pre-open trading, above its close of $280.37.
American Express (NYSE: AXP) reached a $1.8 billion settlement with MA over the card issuer's lawsuit with the payment processor over allegations MA and some other banks prohibited financial firms from issuing credit cards through AXP.
MA July option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, indicating non-directional price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
In the agricultural sector, it's been nirvana for investors. But are prices too high?
Perhaps not. Take Bunge Ltd. (NYSE: BG), which is a major fertilizer and oilseed producer. Bunge has agreed to pay $4.4 billion for Corn Products International Inc. (NYSE: CPO), a producer of finished corn products. Some of its customers include biggies like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). This is a stock-for-stock deal. In other words, why not take advantage of the high market caps?
Both companies have rich histories. Corn Products got its start in 1906 and Bunge was founded in 1818. But it's the future that matters, and Bunge is certainly bullish on the global growth trends in the agricultural markets. To take advantage of this, it makes sense to bulk up. Corn Products will expand Bunge's offerings as well as provide some diversification.
In fact, Bunge also raised its full-year 2008 earnings forecast from $7.10-$7.40 to $9.35-$9.65. This doesn't even include the impact of the Corn Products transaction.
Serving 25,000 members worldwide in more than 210 countries, Mastercard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is the second largest payment system, behind Visa (NYSE: V), issuing credit and debit brand cards which provide access to its transactions network. For a fee, of course.
And revenue from those fees and other charges is advancing at a solid pace. In general, analysts expect F2008 revenue to increase a solid 20-25%. Further, while U.S. gross dollar volume increases will slow with the slow-growth U.S. economy in 2008, international GDV growth should remain robust.
In addition, Mastercard has multiple opportunities to increase market share, both domestically and internationally, as acceptance of credit card use for non-traditional purchases grows. Analysts are also impressed by debit card and prepaid card program progress. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for MA are $8.647/$10.86.
The risks? Mastercard remains vulnerable to a protracted U.S. economic slowdown, and analysts also are also keeping an eye on the rise of new competitors into the transaction space, primarily PayPal.
The First Call mean rating for MA is: Buy. [21 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $333. [high: $390, low: $245.]
Stock Analysis: Mastercard is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from MA's shares. Note: More-cautious investors may wish to wait until MA pulls-back to $270-280, but keep in mind Mastercard may not retreat to that level. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $215.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
I'm not sure how management at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) has time to run the business. What's more, with all the turbulence, I'm wondering if many of the employees are working mostly on parsing rumors and fine-tuning resumes.
Of course, this week Lehman got rid of its CFO, Erin Callan and president, Joseph Gregory. The company also raised $6 billion, which was quite dilutive. So from Monday to Friday, the stock price plunged from $33 to $25.81.
Yet, by Friday, things were perking up. The stock price shot up 13.7%. Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, the, who is the former CEO of AIG (NYSE: AIG), said he bought shares. This was also the case with BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) and Putnam Investments.
But there was something else: Wall Street was abuzz with buyout rumors.
In fact, according to a report from CNBC, it looks like the senior management team of Lehman is meeting this weekend (which is a rare thing). Are they talking to possible suitors? Or, is it to review the figures for Q2? Both?
Despite all this, the fact remains that Lehman's potential suitors are also distressed. So, even if there is a deal, the valuation is likely to be muted.
But there is an interesting scenario: Blackstone Group LLP (NYSE: BX) as a buyer or major investor. The firm is well capitalized and may want an investment banking platform. Moreover, the firm's cofounders -- Stephen Schwarzman (CEO) and Peter Peterson (Senior Chairman) -- were formerly with Lehman (back in the 1980s).
I love the long-term prospects of Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA), but I do have to concede that a pesky lawsuit by Discover (NYSE: DFS) is the one big fly in this story's soup. According to the following article, Discover wants both credit-card companies to pay $6 billion for perceived violations of antitrust regulations. Unfortunately, these damages could be tripled if Visa and MasterCard lose. One of the big problems here is that American Express (NYSE: AXP) already won a settlement of $2.1 billion from Visa late last year and the company established an escrow fund worth $3 billion for litigation payments.
I'll admit, this lawsuit does give me and my credit-card investment thesis a little case of the shivers. After all, tripling $6 billion to $18 billion means that a huge amount of money is in play here, and a successful outcome for Discover would hamper the stocks of the two big card entities. When you read through the litigation risks in Visa's SEC filings (out of MasterCard and Visa, the latter is my favorite since it is still relatively fresh off its IPO and MasterCard has already had a big run), they are pretty scary. And the fact that the $6 billion figure just came to light this week has probably soured the perception of some investors and analysts. Nevertheless, all the previous litigation talk didn't stop Visa's stock from taking off after its IPO earlier this year.
After the 3G iPhone was finally announced Monday, with a price tag and a business model that could take the funky phone to the masses, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) ended lower on some profit taking. But have no fear. Already this morning, Citigroup raised Apple's price target to $287 from $248 with a Buy rating, and Lehman raised it to $234 from $202, maintaining its Overweight rating. Despite the stock trading higher in European markets, it's still not showing signs of recovery in premarket trading in the US.
ThinkPanmure initiated Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) with a Buy, claiming it is gaining market share over rival Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD). The analyst also said Intel is gaining prominence in the server, desktop and notebook markets.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) updated its desktop and notebook computers. It introduced Tuesday in Berlin a new ultra-thin portable, the Voodoo Envy, to rival Apple's MacBook Air. H-P also added a new version of a touch-screen desktop PC and 16 notebooks for consumers and businesses.
There is a great article on Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA) over at TheStreet.com. It talks about the incredible growth in prepaid cards. A prepaid card is one which has a certain quantity of stored value on it. Think of it as being similar to a gift card, except that a prepaid card can be used most anywhere. Both Visa and MasterCard want to capture as much market share for prepaid cards as possible because they offer the same revenue model as existing credit cards in terms of processing fees.
The wonderful thing about stored-value cards is that they represent the ultimate desire of the business economy: conversion into a cashless society. Not only does business want this, but so does the government, which will probably increase its use over time in terms of distributing monies such as unemployment benefits and social-security funds to individuals lacking bank accounts.
An important point made in the piece is the fact that prepaid cards will take a long time to reach critical mass and to become economically significant for Visa and MasterCard's bottom lines. This must be kept in mind, yet I have to say that I personally think prepaid cards could become more significant sooner than people think, assuming that the two big guns in this area buckle down and make some smart moves. Let me describe what I mean.
Willis Group Holdings (NYSE: WSH), the third largest insurance broker, is about to become much bigger. Yes, the company has announced a $2.1 billion acquisition of Hilb Rogal & Hobbs (NYSE: HRH). The transaction is half cash and half stock. Although, Willis plans a $1 billion buyback to sop up the shares.
Based on the financials, the deal looks smart. Willis plans to realize annualized synergies of about $140 million by 2012. What's more, the transaction should be accretive to cash earnings on the close (which is expected in the Q4).
More importantly, Willis is likely to boost its growth. After all, there will be a doubling of North American revenues. There will also be a stronger footprint in New York, Boston, New Jersey, California, Florida, Philadelphia and Illinois. In other words, expect more pressure on McLennan Cos. (NYSE: MMC) and Aon (NYSE: AOC).
Something else: HRH will add expertise in key areas like personal lines, healthcare, environmental and executive risk.
No doubt, Willis is engaging in a transformative acquisition. The deal is the biggest in the sector since Marsh & McLennan's purchase of Sedgwick Group in 1998.
In a typical merger, the parties will sign a confidentiality agreement. It's serious stuff. In fact, if a public company is involved, there are insider trading laws that are triggered.
Despite all this, there are often leaks. And, if they get some press, there's a good chance that the stock price will spike. Actually, a leak may mean that a deal falls apart.
Now, we have some academic validation. That is, Intralinks and London's Cass Business School conducted a study on 350,000 deals from 1994 to 2007. Among the deals that had leaks, only 49% closed. This compares to a 72% close rate for deals without leaks.
Why? I think there are several reasons. First of all, a leak will engender some distrust. Is the other side manipulating things?
What's more, a leak is likely to make a deal more expensive as traders and hedge funds jump into the stock.
Interesting enough, in light of the current environment -- where credit is constrained -- this may put even more pressure on potential deals.
You know, I can't take much more of the financial crisis. That's because I own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE). I'm kind of hoping we get out of the mess brought on by the housing-bubble pop and the mark-to-market devaluation so that these stocks will rise again. As we continue through this recession, another problem may soon assert itself.
According to this article, consumers are starting to rely on their credit cards a little too much. This could lead to a larger quantity of delinquencies. In fact, the piece states that card delinquencies were at 4.86% in Q1, a multi-year high. Further, revolving debt increased 7.9% in March, coming in at $957 billion. Not too far away from a trillion, my friends. Let me tell you, this is the last thing we need right now. Delinquencies will become a major problem for the banks, leading to further erosion of confidence on financials by investors.
As can be expected, two ideas immediately came up during the course of the article: Visa (NYSE: V) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA). How could they not? If people are taking credit debt, then they must be using those two brand names. Since Visa and MasterCard don't really have exposure to the debt side of things, they are relatively safe from that aspect.
When Alcatel and Lucent agreed to merge in April 2006, there were the typical phrases in the press release: "new growth opportunities," "cost synergies," "global convergence," "increased scale," "global capabilities" and so on. Oh, and yes, it would "create enhanced value for shareholders."
Yet, there was something that was curious. The CEO of the new entity, Patricia Russo, said she would not learn French, even though Alcatel was based in France. Might this be a sign that there would be some cultural issues?
Alas, the fact remains that the benefits of the deal haven't materialized as Alcatel-Lucent's (NYSE: ALU) stock price has gone from $14.50 to $7.50.
Well, this week, Alcatel-Lucent had its annual meeting. No doubt, it wasn't fun as shareholders provided an earful. After all, the company had to write down $4.55 billion in asset value because of the merger (there were also thousands of layoffs).
Interestingly enough, shareholders passed a resolution that allows Alcatel-Lucent's board to rid its chairman/CEO with a majority vote instead of a two-thirds of a vote.
Unfortunately, I don't see this amounting to much. Keep in mind that -- with consolidation of wireless carriers -- its tough for equipment providers to get any leverage. Plus, the competition is still intense.
By the way, Russo apparently is learning to speak French now. And she even spoke some words at the meeting. However, she will need to learn a more important language: profits.
With the markets in a swoon, marquee assets are on sale in the US. And, with the drop in the dollar, the valuations look even more compelling. Something else: the surge in commodities -- especially in oil -- is bulging the assets in mega sovereign wealth funds. 
MasterCard
In the agricultural sector, it's been nirvana for investors. But are prices too high?
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I love the long-term prospects of 
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In a typical merger, the parties will sign a confidentiality agreement. It's serious stuff. In fact, if a public company is involved, there are insider trading laws that are triggered.
When Alcatel and Lucent agreed to merge in April 2006, there were the typical phrases in the 
Alcoa's Q2 2008 earnings transcript
Anheuser-Busch (BUD) sues InBev, what's next?
Wal-Mart might help your portfolio during the recession
