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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Housing stocks are key to this market

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says stocks connected to the sector will take it on the chin if the housing index falls further.

A perusal of the charts this weekend shows something surprising: The weakest group out there has been the homebuilders for several weeks now. KB Home (NYSE: KBH) (Cramer's Take), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) have simply been a horror show. What's going on here? How can these stocks be so dangerous when mortgage rates have crashed through 5%, the level that every banker I talk to says mortgages jump off the table and refinancings rush to be done.

What's going on? This group's tracking more than just mortgage rates. It's tracking employment and news flow and both are terrible.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Housing stocks are key to this market

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: THOO, VMW, VOD, BKC, CVX, HBAN ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded VMware (NYSE: VMW) to Hold from Underperform on expectations June quarter revenue will be inline-to-slightly-better and negative revisions to September quarter revenue will not be as great as in the most recent two quarters. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $20.
  • Citigroup upgraded Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback and believes expectations for Q2 are reasonable. The firm has a $50 price target on the stock.
  • FBR Capital upgraded Bronco Drilling (NASDAQ: BRNC) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation as it believes negative sentiment will ease. The firm raised its target on shares to $4 from $3.
  • Unilever (NYSE: UL) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • Posco (NYSE: PKX) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Gol Linhas Aereas (NYSE: GOL) was upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: THOO, VMW, VOD, BKC, CVX, HBAN ...

Earnings highlights: Coke, Pepsi, Hasbro, Marriott, Abercrombie, Wells Fargo and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Coke, Pepsi, Hasbro, Marriott, Abercrombie, Wells Fargo and others

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Exit Fortune Brands

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says horrible outlooks from competitors Diageo and Masco make FO a stock to sell in this market.

What do you do if Johnnie Walker's slowing and Merillat cabinets aren't moving? I think you sell Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take).

Both Diageo (NYSE: DEO) (Cramer's Take), the liquor king, and Masco (NYSE: MAS) (Cramer's Take), the cabinet and plumbing king, reported earnings. While Diageo didn't deliver terrible numbers and boosted its already bountiful dividend, its outlook was horrible.

Masco all around was just plain horrible. Huge quarterly dividend cut to 7.5 cents from 23.5 cents, miserable outlook and a sense that things are spiraling as housing starts get slashed to ribbons.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Exit Fortune Brands

Masco (MAS) misses estimates and announces dividend cut

Masco fourth quarter 2008 earningsMasco Corp. (NYSE: MAS), which manufactures and installs building materials, announced its fourth quarter numbers Wednesday afternoon, falling short of analyst estimates.

Analysts had expected to see the company show a loss for its fourth quarter of 5 cents, but a tough sales environment pushed the company's loss much wider than expected, with a reported 18-cent loss per share.

Continue reading Masco (MAS) misses estimates and announces dividend cut

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Too much debt makes stocks dangerous

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Too much debt makes stocks dangerous

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Feeling regret over doing the homework

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says maybe the secret is to do no homework. If only that were the case.

If you want to participate in the rally that went on Tuesday I have a very specific suggestion: Don't do any homework. And don't listen to any conference calls. And don't pay any attention to the Q&As about credit and where it is going to come from and how quickly stretched balance sheets became because of all of the huge buybacks that were going on for so long.

Make sure you only follow Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (Cramer's Take) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) as they had great quarters. Don't listen to Occidental (NYSE: OXY) (Cramer's Take), where the always honest CFO Steve Chazen lays it all out, lays out how so many oil and gas operators will be broken by this decline and the lack of financing available. Don't listen to Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) (Cramer's Take) where you would learn that the worst recession in appliances in three decades is now morphing into the worst ever, and GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take) is still trying to sell its appliance division.

Don't listen to the cliff-like falloff in orders from an industrial outfit like Crane (NYSE: CR) (Cramer's Take). Certainly don't contemplate what Caterpillar's (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take) order book looks like or Masco's (NYSE: MAS) (Cramer's Take) for that matter.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Feeling regret over doing the homework

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Someone will lead the inevitable turnaround

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these are the stocks that you should watch.

Some stocks have just been totally given up on, as if nothing good can ever happen to them. Check out Masco (NYSE: MAS) (Cramer's Take) , for example. Masco's a great company, always has been -- a dominant supplier to the housing industry, both remodel and original. This company, which MAKES money, is selling at almost a 5% yield and no one cares.

Or how about Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) (Cramer's Take)? It has a terrific housing component -- dominant player -- and one of the best spirits businesses. We found out from Diageo (NYSE: DEO) recently that they have a great business in spirits, and the company may be on the verge of getting Absolut, a fantastic brand. The stock trades at an amazingly low multiple. Or consider Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) (Cramer's Take) , one the great innovators with a classically pro-shareholder bias.

These companies are making good money in the worst environment imaginable. They have decent balance sheets. When this period ends, they will be dominant players, taking share from everyone.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Someone will lead the inevitable turnaround

Analyst downgrades: Morgan Stanley, Boardwalk Pipeline, Brasil Telecom

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Morgan Stanley, Boardwalk Pipeline and Brasil Telecom were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Oppenheimer downgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Perform from Outperform based on limited upside to its revised earnings outlook.
  • RBC downgraded shares of Boardwalk Pipeline (NYSE: BWP) to Sector Perform from Outperform following the company's Q4 results, due to overruns and project delays.
  • Brasil Telecom (NYSE: BRP) was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan on corporate governance share concerns.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Cramer on BloggingStocks: What trends are in, what's out, to year-end

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is amazed by some stocks that just won't quit and looks at the practicalities of getting into these winners.

Starting to get startling disparities between the haves and the have-nots.

Can we have a day where Syngenta (NYSE: SYT) (Cramer's Take) and Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take) don't go up, let alone Deere (NYSE: DE) (Cramer's Take) and Bunge (NYSE: BG) (Cramer's Take)?

Can we have a breather in which Fluor (NYSE: FLR) (Cramer's Take) and Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR) (Cramer's Take) don't run higher, or Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) (Cramer's Take) and McDermott (NYSE: MDR) (Cramer's Take)?

And can we have a two-day period when a Masco (NYSE: MAS) (Cramer's Take) or a JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) can go higher?

Can we have more than a short-squeeze streak by a retailer?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: What trends are in, what's out, to year-end

Analyst downgrades 9-11-07: OCR, MAS, SMOD and VDSI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Omnicare, Masco, Smart Modular and VASCO Data Security were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Matrix downgraded shares of Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) to Hold from Buy to reflect the company's very weak performance and higher than average risk.
  • Merrill Lynch downgraded Masco Corp (NYSE: MAS) to Sell from Neutral to reflect expectations for a decline in U.S. housing starts and remodeling in 2008. The broker recommends swapping into Texas Industries (NYSE: TXI).
  • Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded to Market Outperform from Strong Buy at JMP Securities following the Q4 pre-announcement.
  • VASCO Data Security (NASDAQ: VDSI) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings on valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • RAIT Financial Trust (NYSE: RAS) was downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  • KMG America (NYSE: KMA) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings on valuation.

Option update 5-17-07: Building suppliers active

Building Materials Holding Corp. (NYSE: BLG) -- implied volatility is Calm as BLG closes at 30-month low. BLG, a provider of professional residential services and building materials, closed at $13.41. BLG was frequently mentioned as a takeover target in previous years on a strong housing market and chatter that Home Depot's (NYSE: HD) ex-leader Bob Nardelli would purchase BLG. RHCO says this morning, "Potential for consolidation of Pro Dealers; When will it begin?" BLG June option implied volatility of 41 is below its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, indicating decreasing price risks.

Masco Corp. (NYSE: MAS) -- option implied volatility suggests non-directional Risk. MAS, a home improvement company, closed at $29.15. MAS over all option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risks.

Builders FirstSource (NASDAQ: BLDR) -- implied volatility suggests Flat Risk. BLDR, a supplier and manufacturer of structural and related building products for residential new construction, closed at $16.13. BLDR has a market cap of $571 million with long term debt of $318 million. BLDR reported March 2007 quarterly total revenue of $411 million. BLDR over all option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

BlueLinx Holdings (NYSE: BXC) -- options suggest non-directional risk. BXC, a distributor of building products, closed at $10.88. BXC has a market cap of $339 million with long term debt of $522 million. BXC reported 2006 annual revenue of $4.8 billion. RHCO says, "BXC is maintaining its growth story despite a tough home-building market. The key element is growing its specialty business faster than the structural segment." BXC over all option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Option volume leaders today are: EnCana Corp. (NYSE: ECA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ).

Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Masco's results show impact of weak housing market

Masco Corporation (NYSE: MAS), the huge home-improvement products supplier to companies like Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD), reported awful revenue results yesterday, reflecting the slowdown in the US housing market. However, the company did an excellent job at controlling expenses by beating margins by a nice amount.

Organic sales were weak, down 9.6% versus expectations of 11%. Total US sales were down 15.7%, however, this was offset by a 21% increase in international sales -- that is a big number and reason why you want keep this company on your radar screen.

Operating margins came in at 11.4% versus estimates of 8.7% -- beating estimates by almost 270bps, a sign of very good management.

Also, the company is buying back a ton of stock, purchasing 9 million shares in the most recent quarter with 27 million shares remaining on the buyback.

Masco will be a high flier once its revenue decline ends. I'd put this stock on the list of stocks to own when the housing supplier inventory overhang is over.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+35.5910,282.56
NASDAQ+13.122,164.20
S&P 500+4.781,097.79

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 03:36 PM

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