For more earnings forecasts, see Peter Cohan's Earnings expectations for 10 banks tell a mixed story.

Thomson Financial expects M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) to earn $1.63 when it announces its fourth-quarter earnings on January 14th. That's down 13% from the same period in 2006 when it earned $1.88.

M&T Bank is a Buffalo, NY-based bank operating in five segments: Commercial Banking, Commercial Real Estate, Discretionary Portfolio, Residential Mortgage Banking and Retail Banking. In the last year, its revenues were $3.5 billion and its net income totaled $803 million. Its stock has lost 39% of its value in the last year and it trades at a P/E of 10.4.

It has a mixed track record when it comes to actual versus expected earnings. In the second quarter of 2007, it beat by 4.8% but in the third quarter it missed by 5.2%. My hunch is that it will miss again.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in M&T Bank securities.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intel (INTC), Caterpillar (CAT), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC), M&T Bank Corp (MTB) and Regions Financial Corp (RF) were some of today's noteworthy initiations:

• Intel Corp (NASDAQ: INTC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan based on expectations for margin expansion in 2H07 driven by share gains, stable pricing, and lower costs. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral at American Technology as the firm believes the price war is ending sooner than expected and that NOR Flash could be divested soon.

• Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) was upgraded at Wachovia to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect a re-acceleration in earnings growth and a lower probability of a recession.

• Soleil upgraded shares of Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) to Buy from Hold as the firm believes WFC is an attractive late-cycle play with above-average growth prospects and superior risk management.

• Merrill Lynch upgraded shares of M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) and Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Buy from Neutral, citing valuation. Oppenheimer upgraded M&T Bank to Neutral from Sell based on valuation and revised estimates. Keefe Bruyette raised Regions Financial rating to Market Perform from Underperform.
  

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Susquehanna upgraded shares of NICE Systems Ltd (NASDAQ: NICE) to Positive from Neutral as the firm expects strong execution from the company's robust product set and increased market share following the Verint Systems' (VRNT) acquisition of Witness Systems (WITS).

• Comerica (NYSE: CMA) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.

• JP Morgan upgraded Interpublic Group of Cos (NYSE: IPG) to Overweight from Neutral.

• ThinkEquity upgraded Trimeris, Inc (NASDAQ: TRMS) to Source of Funds from Sell.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).