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Closing Bell: The Bears Found Some Bulls (ABK, JASO, MBI, NFLX, INTC)

How you look at today's FOMC meeting is up to you, but the stock market bounced in reaction to the FOMC's decision to reinvest rolling maturities into more Treasury bonds. A higher oil forecast from the EIA also lent more credence to a sustained growth despite some tempering of those growth estimates.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,644.25 -54.50 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,121.08 -6.71 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,277.17 -28.52 (-1.24%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: The Bears Found Some Bulls (ABK, JASO, MBI, NFLX, INTC)

MBIA booted from S&P 500 Index

Standard & Poor's is performing some end-of-year cleanup on its benchmark index, the S&P 500 Index (SPX). My colleague Mark Fightmaster reported earlier that Visa (V) is set to replace Ciena Corp. (CIEN) on the widely watched market barometer, but that's not the only SPX development hitting Wall Street today. In fact, struggling insurance issue MBIA Inc. (MBI) is preparing to take its leave from the venerable index.

In a press release late Friday, Standard & Poor's explained that MBIA "currently ranks 500th in the index and is no longer representative of the S&P 500 index market cap space." The beaten-down insurance company will be replaced by Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN), which is in the process of being spun off by Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY).

Continue reading MBIA booted from S&P 500 Index

Closing Bell: What sell-off? (AIG, ABK, EPR, MBI, JAVA, ORCL, ERTS)

We had another bit of data showing strong home sales in Q3, but as prices fell. Yet the only real thing to note was that the sell-off that was starting out this morning just didn't hold when you look at the broad indexes today. Some dollar directional changes may be part of the issue that kept the stocks from getting cheaper. There were still many losers on the day.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,247.88 +20.94 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,093.04 -0.04 (0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,151.08 -2.98 (-0.14%)

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Continue reading Closing Bell: What sell-off? (AIG, ABK, EPR, MBI, JAVA, ORCL, ERTS)

The week in preview: A peek at apparel retail earnings

As earnings season begins to wind down, some apparel retailers are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), the 800-pound gorilla in the space, will report that it earned $0.77 per share in the first quarter, about the same as in the first quarter of last year. But JCPenney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) are expected to report lower profits for the first quarter as consumers continued to hold off on spending. Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) are expected to have swung to a loss year over year.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Winn Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) are likewise expected to report declining earnings, while the Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (NYSE: GAP), parent of the A&P supermarket chain, is expected to have narrowed its net loss 68.9% to $0.28 per share.

Continue reading The week in preview: A peek at apparel retail earnings

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fix the home glut

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that's the real problem, and every little bit helps.

Many are decrying that the AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) bailout now helps the holders of the collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) who bought insurance against them from AIG. The idea is simple: These CDOs are worth, in many cases, next to nothing depending upon the vintages, geographies and FICO scores, but they will now be paid back at pretty much face value -- AIG CEO Ed Liddy said the prices will be negotiated, but I don't see how they can get any less because AIG guaranteed it and the U.S. is not abrogating any of these guarantees.

It's an obvious windfall and still one more piece of the stinking puzzle that involves unwinding the bogus real estate finance that prevailed from 2004 to 2007. The bigger issue, though, is whether the government will then take over MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take) and Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take) -- I know people at those companies say they don't need it, so OK, they don't ... but let's say they do for the purposes of reality -- and have them make good on all of the credit default swaps they wrote against bad CDOs.

If the government is willing, they can buy several trillion dollars of these easily through this method and then sit on them and hopefully they will come back to some value.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Fix the home glut

Before the bell: Stocks headed lower; TWX, CSCO, ABK, MBI, DELL ...

U.S. stock futures were lower Wednesday morning, a day after a historic election saw Barack Obama elected president. But if Tuesday markets rallied, today it seems we're witnessing a "sell on the news". President-elect Obama will inherit a troubled economy and that what Wall Street is back to focusing on this morning. Some data could contribute to current sentiment as the October ADP employment numbers will be released before the opening bell and October ISM services after. weekly energy inventory data are also out for release. Oil prices declined ahead of the data to around $68.30 a barell.

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) reported an 18% growth in profits from continuing operations, and profit of 31 cents per share (excluding items), beating analyst estimates. Time Warner also lowered its outlook for full-year earning primarily because of layoffs at Time Inc. Advertising revenue at AOL as did revenue at its Warner Bros. movie division, but TWX saw growth in its cable-access and cable-network businesses.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) will both report after the close. Cisco is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings of 39 cents a share, News Corp., 22 cents a share in the fiscal first quarter according to Thomson Reuters.

Continue reading Before the bell: Stocks headed lower; TWX, CSCO, ABK, MBI, DELL ...

Ambac Financial and MBIA Inc. plunge on Moody's downgrade warning

Thanks to a downgrade warning from Moody's, bond insurers Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are sitting out today's massive rally in financial stocks. Late Thursday, Moody's announced that it may downgrade the duo's ratings by more than one notch due to rising losses from subprime mortgage debt. So far today, the news has prompted a 7% drop in MBIA shares, and a slump of nearly 8% for Ambac.

In a statement, Moody's said, "Because both Ambac and MBIA are meaningfully exposed to the risk of U.S. subprime mortgages and other residential mortgage products, the revised assumptions are expected to have a significant impact on the firms' capital positions and multi-notch downgrades are possible." Specifically, the "A2" insurance financial strength rating of MBIA's insurance unit is under review, as is the "Aa3" insurance financial strength rating for Ambac.

Neither bond insurer seems particularly pleased by Moody's decision. Jay Brown, chairman and CEO of MBIA, said that the review reflects "inherent flaws" in the ratings company's logic, and added that his company has a capital cushion of more than $3 billion. Ambac's chairman and chief executive, Michael Callen, noted his "surprise and disappointment" at the news, and added that "Moody's ratings actions continue to cause confusion, uncertainty and the risk of material economic damange if their assumptions ultimately prove to be too onerous."

Despite today's plunge, MBI and ABK remain poised atop support from their respective 10-week moving averages. Both bond insurers have endured massive price plunges amid subprime-related fallout, but they've recently rebounded. Ambac now boasts a 60-day relative-strength reading of 381% versus the S&P 500 Index, while MBIA's is 312%.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

Before the bell: Futures climb with dollar as oil declines; ADSK, KSS, JWN, ANF, JCP, MBI, ABK, MER ...

U.S. stock futures were higher Friday morning, indicating stock markets could possibly extend Thursday's rally as the dollar rose and oil prices fell further. The dollar continues to make gains on the back of growing evidence of global economic softness. Still, several economic readings are due out today, including the New York Empire State manufacturing index , capacity utilization and industrial production -- all before the opening bell.

Retail will be in focus today after two Kohl's Corp (NYSE: KSS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) reported late Thursday, and J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) are due to report before the opening bell.

Kohl's Corp shares could start higher as premarket indication has them trading 2.3% higher, while Nordstrom's are trading 4% lower in premarket action. Kohl's quarterly profit fell 12% from a year ago, but the retailer lifted its fiscal year profit forecast. Meanwhile, upper scale Nordstrom, reported a 21% drop in second-quarter profits and cut full year outlook.

ANF said second-quarter profit fell on lower sales of jeans and T-shirts and forecast full-year earnings per share that trailed some analysts' estimates. JCP also saw profit decline but beat estimates and issued lower guidance.

Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) shares are trading 10% higher in premarket action after the design software maker reported stronger-than-forecast second-quarter earnings Thursday after the close.

Continue reading Before the bell: Futures climb with dollar as oil declines; ADSK, KSS, JWN, ANF, JCP, MBI, ABK, MER ...

The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.

You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.

First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.

We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering

Cramer on BloggingStocks: The mortgage insurers created this mess

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Fannie and Freddie aren't the true culprits here.

The blowhards and bluff artists and the Gang of Four -- Ambac (NYSE: ABK) (Cramer's Take), MBIA (NYSE: MBI) (Cramer's Take), MGIC (NYSE: MTG) (Cramer's Take) and PMI (NYSE: PMI) (Cramer's Take) -- truly have blood on their hands for this moment. So do the ratings agencies, the mortgage insurers and the salespeople who packaged undocumented loans and pushed buying homes with no money down.

The whole apparatus stinks and we are now seeing the unwinding, but I think that the false assurances created by the Gang of Four and their insistence to not worry made everyone way too complacent. Their glib promises as well as the incredibly lax work of the ratings agencies, S&P and Moody's, enabled the whole edifice to be propped up.

And once it was clear to them that they needed more capital, they chose to forgo the window and attack the shorts. Had they raised the capital they needed and had the ratings agencies said they can't bless any more of this junk, we might have never been in this spot.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The mortgage insurers created this mess

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Beware the financial dirty dozen

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he has no confidence in these hated names, and neither should you.

The financials are flying -- there are finally bids for most of them underneath. Many, including Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), are running. What a great time to put the negative cards on the table and put the negatives in perspective. That's right, let's look at the financial Achilles' heels. What could go wrong? In other words, here's the companion piece to Doug Kass' positive conversion. Here's what I am worried about even as Doug thinks everyone's too worried and the bottom is being put in.

To get started, let's look at what's not causing the endless declines in the stocks -- don't worry, we will get to the financial dirty dozen when I finish this preamble.

First, it ain't earnings. Earnings aren't going to be that great. But that's why the S&P is at 14 times. It can go to 12 or 11, or most likely stays at 13-14, but the E goes down (earnings).

Second, it ain't oil. The stocks sensitive to the increase in oil have room to go down, but the price of oil is being factored in slowly but surely.

Third, it isn't inflation or recession. Those two are being baked in each day.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Beware the financial dirty dozen

Before the bell: MBI, ABK, WB, AAPL, AA, F, GM, HPQ

Before the bell: Oil, financials woes send futures lower

Ambac Inc. (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) are trading much lower in premarket trading after Moody's Investors Service cut their Aaa ratings. Moody's downgraded Ambac's insurance financial strength rating to Aa3, and MBIA's insurance financial strength rating was downgraded to A2.

Wachovia Corp (NYSE: WB) shares are trading over 3.5% lower in premarket trading after its investment unit has liquidated a fund that specialized in mortgage-backed securities worth $403 million, the Journal reported.

FORTUNE writer wonder how Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) could target business customers next. Meanwhile, Tech Trader Daily writes that according to Oppenheimer, AT&T (NYSE: T) is paying a subsidy of $325 for the new 3G iPhone. The typical smartphone subsidy is about $200.

Continue reading Before the bell: MBI, ABK, WB, AAPL, AA, F, GM, HPQ

Pre-market movers (ABK) (MBI) (CAL)

Ambac (NYSE:ABK) is down 4% after being downgraded.

MBIA (NYSE:MBI) is off over 5% after a downgrade.

Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) is off 5% after a brokerage downgrade.

Continental (NYSE:CAL) is off 4% on news that it is unlikely to merger with another airline.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Ackman extends dire predictions to FSA

When word started circulating that hedge fund manager and renowned short-seller William Ackman was set to make public a new short position, a friend and I discussed it with some anticipation. We both hoped that it would be something new and exciting -- ideally a non-financial stock and, at the very least, something other than a bond insurer. Ackman has made headlines with his prescient calls -- and publicity-generating antics -- warning of trouble at Ambac (NYSE: ABK) and MBIA (NYSE: MBI).

Well the name of the company is out and it is indeed another bond insurer. And making it even less interesting, it isn't even a short. He's betting against Financial Security Assurance which, since it's owned by French bank Dexia, can't be shorted. Instead he is buying credit default swaps on the company's bonds.

A Fortune piece discussing Ackman's claims somewhat snidely points out that his long picks aren't doing well lately. Sears Holdings (NYSE: SHLD) and Target (NYSE: TGT) have been weak performers this year. But I think analyzing a stock's performance over a few months completely misses the point -- Ackman does higher quality research than just about anyone else on Wall Street, and it can take the market years to catch up with him. In the case of Amback and MBIA, an analysis of stock charts would made Ackman look like a buffoon for years after he started raising red flags. If Ackman's research is sound -- historically, it generally has been -- patient investors should do quite well following him into Target and Sears. Impatient investors probably won't do well no matter what.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 27, 2012: 06:27 AM

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