The conventional wisdom is that consumer spending is what drives the U.S. economy. And consumer spending arises out of consumer confidence. Unfortunately, the signals along the road to economic recovery are mixed, what with the rising GDP growth and the dismal unemployment numbers. Its enough to leave investors scratching their heads. What barometers of consumer confidence will the coming week bring?

The TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November is scheduled for Tuesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November is due out Friday.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer believes we'll get a selloff, but is mindful that stocks tend to come back.

Anyone approaching the month of September long will feel pressured to sell given the history of the month. We all know that September's been brutal for years in markets that are up, and we know that everyone's expecting bad things to come in. We have now read a gazillion articles about how it is impossible to have a real rally based on earnings with no sales, and each article sounds incredibly compelling.

Of course, you could have written the same article for the last 3,000 points, but that's OK too.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this bank is the best call on the next leg of the market.

Citigroup's (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take) plan to split itself into two banks -- the retail/service/investment bank and Citi Holdings, which would consist of (among other things) the household lending arm and the old special purpose vehicles -- will work if the government gives it time. It will work for the same reason the "Bankers Win Big in Toxic Pay Plan," article in The Wall Street Journal states: Much of what was thought to be worthless or worth pennies in Citi Holdings is really money good and will pay off when due.

That's how you can get the book value of Citigroup to go up, and given that Tier 1 capital has not been an issue -- they have a ton of it -- you are going to see book go up quarter after quarter.

You can learn a lot from your elders and when it comes to investing, you best listen very attentively. I often refer to 'my pal Warren' in my posts and I credit Mr. Buffett's investment advice and parables over the years for much of my gains in 2009.

There is another mentor, though, one I have not referred to often but that I have gleaned some wisdom from in terms of value investing and courage, and that is 'my pal Sir John.' While Buffett has been very straight forward in his position that you should buy on fear and this was the year to do that, it was Templeton that preached buying far and wide and diversifying broadly into out-of-favor companies. As he did when he started out.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says in the wake of an upgrade, FCX has to do a big equity offering.

What will Richard Adkerson do? I can tell you what the CEO of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) ought to do in the wake of the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch upgrade to buy from sell. He ought to do the biggest darned equity offering in history.

I like Richard. He's candid, he's a great copper man, but he spent too much at the high on Phelps Dodge and wasn't prepared when copper prices plummeted as his balance sheet's simply not so hot. So he had to cut his dividend at the bottom, literally at the exact bottom.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you'll miss some great opportunities if you blindly believe all the bad news.

You want a rebuke to the "never-ending woes of commercial and residential real estate mortgage bonds"? You get one every day in this market, and today is no different. Look at what is up big today: Genworth (NYSE: GNW) (Cramer's Take), Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) (Cramer's Take), Wyndham (NYSE: WYN) (Cramer's Take), Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) (Cramer's Take) and Zions (NASDAQ: ZION) (Cramer's Take). Each in its own way needs the residential or commercial real estate markets to be robust to thrive, and if the myriad articles I read about the horrible state of the mortgage bond market and the dim commercial real estate prospects were true, why would you be making money in Wyndham, a gigantic timeshare company? How could Regions and Zions be rallying? They are among the worst of the worst; unless you consider Genworth and Lincoln National, which are supposed to be roadkill because of all of their mortgage bonds.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) reported dismal Q1 numbers as same-store sales plunged.
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) dismal Q2 results were in line with analysts' expectations.
• Bankrate Inc. (NASDAQ: RATE) reported lower earnings and revenue for Q1 and offered no guidance.
• Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) earnings, revenue, and same-store sales all fell in the first quarter.
• Dr Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE: DPS) Q1 earnings declined but still topped analysts' expectations.

Never mind the bears and bulls or even the pigs and chickens, I think between Wall Street and Washington D.C. the goofs and ghosts are leading the charge.

What I mean by this is that the rationale for certain market activity and advisement makes no sense to me. Maybe we are not recovering from the recession but we are moving into something like a shadow economy, where people look at what is going on in the market and rationalize it after the fact, when all the real energy is in the darkness.

Today American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, and Lazard Capital Markets upgraded AEO from hold to buy. Why now, after the stock has run up 65% this year, do they finally wake up and think there might be something here?

After five consecutive quarters of losses it was reported today after the markets closed that MBIA (NYSE: MBI) earned $3.34 per share in the first quarter through March 31, 2009. This flies in the face of analysts expectations of a 33 cent loss.

The stock closed today at $6.96 but in after hours trading has been up over $8.00 as I type at 5:00 EST.

As earnings season begins to wind down, some apparel retailers are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Walmart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), the 800-pound gorilla in the space, will report that it earned $0.77 per share in the first quarter, about the same as in the first quarter of last year. But JCPenney Co. (NYSE: JCP), Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN) are expected to report lower profits for the first quarter as consumers continued to hold off on spending. Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M) and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) are expected to have swung to a loss year over year.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Winn Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) are likewise expected to report declining earnings, while the Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (NYSE: GAP), parent of the A&P supermarket chain, is expected to have narrowed its net loss 68.9% to $0.28 per share.

Over the past few weeks the market has been playing a favorable tune but that does not mean that all bad news and negativity have been wrung out of it. There is plenty of fear and suspicion creating volatility.

In many cases this past quarter I have been doing naked puts, in stocks I would be happy to own anyway. I first mentioned this opportunity about seven week ago in Investor fear puts me 'naked' on Wall Street. The actual option position is a "sell to open" put where you get paid today, to pledge to buy something at a later date. These options are available at different strike prices and monthly intervals depending on the company stock.

There are very few people on this planet that can honestly say that they have not been affected in some way by the economic firestorm caused by underappreciating risk.

Congress, along with the Securities and Exchange Commission during a period where the White House was comatose, opened up the flood gates for Wall Street's financial wizards to bet the world and lose!

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYS: AIG) posted a record loss even as it asks for more taxpayer funds.
• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) shares sank after it missed Q4 expectations by a wide margin.
• AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) reported strong Q2 results, sending shares upward toward its 52-week high.
• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) shares soared after it reported better-than-expected numbers for Q4.
• Chico's FAS Inc. (NYSE: CHS) Q4 loss widened on impairment charges and severance costs.

After the closing bell sounded yesterday afternoon, MBIA (NYSE: MBI) stepped into the spotlight to report fourth-quarter earnings. The struggling banking firm saw its fourth-quarter loss shrink to $1.2 billion, or $5.30 per share from last year's fourth-quarter loss of $18.55 per share.

This quarter's loss came courtesy of a $1.7-billion and a $532-million loss on insured derivatives. Both of these losses were logged pre-tax. The company's CEO Jay Brown blamed the rough 18-month period on the "worst credit crisis since the Great Depression." Last year was a rough year for MBIA, as the weak housing market lead to many homebuyers and homeowners defaulting on or lagging in their mortgage payments leading to a major problem for MBIA, which insures mortgage bonds. The problem for the banking firm is that the mortgage turmoil is expected to continue.

Trillions of dollars have been introduced into the world economy since last July, when I thought it would be interesting to jump in and pick stocks prior to the carnage in the financial sector taking complete hold.

For the past eight months our government has been taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending. The Federal Reserve has essentially dropped the interest to zero.

The government was the last to announce that we are in a recession. Well, duh! However, recession or not the world is still open for business although less of it. Gold is down 30% from it's highs and oil having totally collapsed from $147 a barrel at the time of the original story to the low $30's now.

The original story was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials -- buying into a pool of financial stocks at a time when these stocks went unloved by all.

Eight of the ten financial stocks I wrote about are down or out at this point. When I last reported, the portfolio was losing 47% but it has sunk to new lows now standing at a loss of 58.56%. This compares to a drop in the S&P 500 of 29% or half the loss.

There are many analysts suggesting that we finally have arrived at the time to invest in financial stocks. Perhaps that is true, but do you invest in the downtrodden or the blue chips?