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Earnings highlights: Starbucks, Best Buy, JCPenney, Agilent, Wells Fargo and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Starbucks, Best Buy, JCPenney, Agilent, Wells Fargo and others

Closing Bell: Carnage and mayhem, day 6; AXP, NAT, MELI, OWW, LVS

Today was another one of those days where one could feel like the Duke Brothers from Trading Places. It was just another down day, yet the pain seemed to capture everything and everyone. The reasons markets are hurting are all the same as they have been, but such is life and expanding the TARP bailout money isn't helping.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA: 8,282.66 -411.30 -4.73%
NASDAQ: 1,499.21 -81.69 -5.17%
S&P 500: 852.32 -46.63 -5.19%
Major Stocks Breaking Under $10.00
Short Sellers Move To Healthy Companies
Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) fell again after negative headlines that it supposedly wants $3.5 billion in TARP funds. Although these are much of the same concerns as yesterday since becoming a bank holding company. Shares were down over 10% at $19.99 right before the close.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) got to see insult added to injury. Moody's cut its debt ratings further into junk status. Shares were down more than another 5% at $5.03 right before the close.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Carnage and mayhem, day 6; AXP, NAT, MELI, OWW, LVS

Mercadolibre (MELI) CEO stops selling stock

MELI logoMercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI) shares are trading higher today after the company's CEO terminated a prearranged stock trading plan that could have sold up to 1,768,794 shares of MELI. A few analysts released notes today after this news that were generally positive on MELI's outlook. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MELI.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $81.17 in December. MELI opened this morning at $28.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $27.65 and a high of $30.73. As of 12:15, MELI is trading at $30.45, up $3.66 (13.7%). The chart for MELI looks bearish and steady.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just ten weeks as long as MELI is above $20 at September expiration. MELI would have to fall by more than 35% before we would start to lose money.

Continue reading Mercadolibre (MELI) CEO stops selling stock

Analyst upgrades: NOC, GDNNY and MELI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Northrop Grumman, Groupe Danone and MercadoLibre were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to Outperform from Perform after the Pentagon selected the company over Boeing (NYSE: BA) for the newly designated KC-45A Aerial Refueling Tanker with a potential value of $35B.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Groupe Danone (OTC: GDNNY) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the sell-off on commodity cost concerns is overdone.
  • MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as they believe MELI's long-term thesis is more compelling now vs. six months ago and notes favorable reaction to Mercado Pago v2.0.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Apple wreckage offers important lessons

Smack in the face of millions of exceedingly optimistic investors, I have really nailed Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Just as the market cheerleaders were fueling these investors' imaginations, I wrote this article on January 3, urging caution.

Several hundred hate emails and a 30% drop in price later, I'm declaring victory.

Now, don't bother to ask, I don't know if now is the time to buy or sell -- I only make calls when I believe the variables to be aligned/predictable, which is definitely not the case right now. I don't trust the overall market/economy and I also want to see how all the Johnny-come-lately analysts react/influence the stock price over the next few days. But when I nail something this dead on, I must insist you file these lessons away because they will save you money and that's why I write. After all, investing isn't just about making money and stock picking, it's about learning from what works and what doesn't so you can improve over time.

Continue reading Apple wreckage offers important lessons

How to catch these four falling knives (GRMN, MELI, FSLR, EXPE)

Knives Experience has taught me that catching falling knives in the stock market is incredibly dangerous, but some of these speculative names are really beginning to test my resolve. So I thought I'd share them with you.

Investors have been punishing these plays not because business has fallen off a cliff, but because they are some of the most speculative stocks around -- other than penny stocks -- and in this kind of market environment, investors prefer safety. That creates opportunity, if you're willing to take on some risk. After all, these companies still have solid business fundamentals, so there will be a bottom somewhere, and I think we're getting very close to it here. For now, put these on your watchlist, for when they do bounce, they're going to bounce hard, think 15-20% within days.

Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) -- At $64, this navigation system maker is down 35% on the year, but revenue growth is far greater than its current P/E of 15. Sure, there's some margin concerns, but the chart has solid support at $60.

Continue reading How to catch these four falling knives (GRMN, MELI, FSLR, EXPE)

Mercadolibre (MELI): The financial media's dream

Mercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI) logo Online auctioneer Mercadolibre (NASDAQ: MELI)'s business is doing pretty well, but that's not the reason why the stock is up nearly 50% in the past few weeks. No, Mercadolibre is surging because its story is a wet dream for the financial media, and that's important for investors and the stock's many short sellers.

After all, when the company reported solid earnings back in early November, the stock only rose $10/share on negligible trading volume; now, after being dubbed "The Latin American eBay" by Investor's Business Daily and "The Next Baidu" by the Cramer-TheStreet.com-CNBC axis, the stock has surged nearly $20/share within a few days on huge volume. A shining example of the power of the press!

Continue reading Mercadolibre (MELI): The financial media's dream

Analyst initiations: VMW, VR and HOLX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: VMWare, Validus Holdings and Hologic were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • VMWare Inc (NYSE: VMW) was initiated by a host of firms: Banc of America believes the current valuation captures most of the upside potential, and started shares with a Neutral rating and $75 target. Wachovia started shares with a Market Perform rating and Deutsche Bank started shares with a Hold rating and $80 target on valuation. The stock was also started with a Buy rating and $92 target at UBS, with a Buy rating and $100 target at Citigroup and with an Overweight rating at JP Morgan and with a Neutral rating at Merrill Lynch.
  • Validus Holdings (NYSE: VR) was started with a Buy rating and $29 target at UBS on valuation and benefits from the Talbots (NYSE: TLB) acquisition. Shares were also initiated at JP Morgan with a Neutral rating.
  • CIBC resumed coverage of Hologic Inc (NASDAQ: HOLX) with a Sector Outperformer rating and $77 target as the firm is positive on Hologic's merger with Cytyc Corporation (NASDAQ: CYTC) and views it as one of the top mid-cap stories in the coming year.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • B. Riley initiated shares of EuroBancshares (NASDAQ: EUBK) with a Buy rating and $10 target.
  • Rodman resumed coverage of Ziopharm Oncology Inc (NASDAQ: ZIOP) with a Market Outperform rating and $8 target.
  • Citigroup started shares of Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) with a Buy rating and $43 target.
  • MercadoLibre Inc (NASDAQ: MELI) was initiated with a Sector Perform rating and $39 target at RBC Capital.

Analyst initiations: U.S. media, oil services, MELI and ZINC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. media sector, oil services, MercadoLibre and Horsehead Holdings were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Credit Suisse initiated coverage of the U.S. media sector with a Market Weight rating, shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) with an Outperform rating and shares of Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) and Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA.B) with Neutral ratings.
  • Bernstein initiated coverage of the oil services sector with a Positive Bias rating. The firm initiated Weatherford International Ltd (NYSE: WFT) with an Outperform rating and $84 target and Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL), Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI) and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE: SLB) with Market Perform ratings and a $44 target, $103 target and $96 target, respectively.
  • MercadoLibre Inc (NASDAQ: MELI) was initiated by American Technology with a Buy rating and $45 target, as the firm believes the e-commerce growth opportunity in Latin America is still in its infancy. Shares were also started at Pacific Crest with an Outperform rating and $37 target, as the firm believes the company should benefit from strong secular growth and company-specific drivers. MercadoLibre was also initiated at JP Morgan with an Overweight rating and at Merrill Lynch with a Buy rating and $35 target.
  • Friedman Billings expects Horsehead Holding Corp's (NASDAQ: ZINC) EBITDA to increase even in a declining commodity environment and believes the company is well positioned to gain market share. Shares were started with an Outperform rating and $27 target also added to the firm's Top Pick List.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

MercadoLibre (MELI) is en fuego

It's been a mixed bag for IPOs this week. But, as for the MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)'s offering, things were certainly upbeat.

The IPO priced at $18 (at the top of the $16-$18 range) and raised a cool $332.8 million. So far, shares are trading up 38% to $25.

MercadoLibre operates the largest online trading platform in Latin America (which has about 550 million or so people). In fact, the region is experiencing high rates of internet penetration.

MercadoLibre has an assortment of services: product listings, which are based on either a fixed-price or auction-based format; classifieds; and secure payment solutions. There are more than 2,000 product categories, and the sites attract about 2.9 million listings per month.

The top-line growth has been impressive. From 2004 to 2006, revenues surged from $12.7 million to $52.1 million. During this time, operating expenses increased at a slower rate, going from $16 million to $46.7 million. In other words, the company is realizing operating leverage.

There is competition, such as from DeRemate and MasOportunidades.com. There is also pressure from large online communities like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO).

Also, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) owns roughly 19% of MercadoLibre. However, the strategic alliance has expired and eBay is now able to become a competitor as well.

The lead underwriters on the deal include J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. (NYSE: JPM) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER).

You can find the prospectus at the SEC website. Also, if you want to check out more IPO pricings, click here.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+203.5210,226.94
NASDAQ+41.622,154.06
S&P 500+23.781,093.08

Last updated: November 10, 2009: 01:24 AM

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