Get the latest on Wrath of the Lich King on WoW Insider!
Holidash Blog

AOL Money & Finance

Posts with tag MFA

I'm losing my patience with this market!

Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.

I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.

My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.

Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.

Analyst upgrades: ANN, FNB and MFA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: AnnTaylor, FNB Corp and MFA Mortgage were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Friedman Billings upgraded AnnTaylor (NYSE:ANN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on better management of the business by management, stabilizing fundamentals, and strong balance sheet and cash flow.
  • B. Riley raised FNB Corp (NYSE:FNB) to Buy from Neutral as they feel more bullish about the company's prospects after meeting with management. The firm raised their target price to $16 from $15.50.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded MFA Mortgage (NYSE:MFA) to Outperform from Market Perform following the company's 40M share equity offering, which they believe will add 2.5c a quarter to EPS.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Dell (NASADAQ:DELL) was raised at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
  • Lehman upgraded Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) to Overweight from Equal Weight.
  • Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper.

Analyst upgrades: ALU, OPXT and AXL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Alcatel-Lucent, Opnext and American Axle were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Goldman upgraded shares of Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) to Neutral from Sell to reflect the recovery of U.S. corporate bond yields which they believe is positive for the company's long-term pension liability. Goldman also thinks analyst estimates may have bottomed.
  • Thomas Weisel raised Opnext (NASDAQ:OPXT) to Overweight from Market Weight after their research indicated an acceleration in optical communications component industry revenue growth.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded American Axle (NYSE:AXL) to Buy from Hold to reflect the cost savings from the UAW contract.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Getting killed on MFA Mortgage

Without a doubt, I picked the worst possible time to buy MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). Not long ago, I wrote about my desire to get in on MFA. Well, I did. And now I am paying for it, it seems.

I made a few buys between $7 and $10, starting at the high end of the range and then working down. Today, MFA got hit again; as I write this, it's trading around $6 (the low for the day so far is $5.96). My portfolio is certainly getting bloodier.

The mortgage REIT sector is having a tough time because of analyst price-target reductions and falling book values. Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) and Anworth Mortgage (NYSE: ANH) are feeling the heat. MFA also has been doing some reduction in terms of leverage, as this recent press release tells us. I'll be following the mnREIT story. For now, though, I'm not selling, and I think MFA is, as Merrill Ross, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, states, rather cheap at the moment (I know, I know, it can just get cheaper, can't it...).

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares of MFA common and MFA preferred shares; positions can change at any time.

There will be blood -- in my portfolio ...

Well, all I can say is that today has been one of the worst days of my portfolio's life. I'm not concerned about my core holdings -- Disney (NYSE: DIS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), General Electric (NYSE: GE), stuff like that -- but, boy oh boy, are my financial positions taking some major hits!

I know, I know -- you're saying to yourself, "uh, buddy, didn't you realize this was going to happen?" Sure, but when the theory becomes reality, that's when the torture really starts to set in. Not sure if you caught the wave of downgrades today -- if you didn't, check out Eric Buscemi's post about it -- but I got hammered by one of them. MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) was downgraded by Keefe Bruyette on book-value concerns. As I write this, it's trading down over 15% -- oooh, it hurts to write such a double-digit figure -- on, get this, volume of over 15 million shares. The 30-day average volume is closer to 4 million shares. I'm writing this with a couple hours to go to close! It's going to be a huge volume day once all is said and done. I also own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT), CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) and MFA preferred shares (NYSE: MFA-A).

Have I been shaken out yet? No. In fact, in terms of MFA, I personally think that it is a buy, even though it could be in falling-knife mode right now (that's always difficult to discern). I know Timothy Sykes would disagree on this strategy, so you should check out his post for some balance. With Ben Bernanke most likely set to cut the Fed Funds rate even further, MFA should benefit, as should most financials. I also like CapitalSource, but I am a little wary at this point of Newcastle -- I think it will recover, but that one's been particularly volatile. As they say, when there's blood on Wall Street, that's sometimes the best time to do some judicious buying (after a ton of due diligence, of course). And, as a postscript, if you want to do only safe buying, then Disney, Coke and GE might be good ideas to look at -- GE has an especially interesting yield right now.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares in Disney, Coca-Cola, MFA common and MFA preferred, CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, and GE. Positions can change at any time.

Analyst downgrades: ANH, MFA, NWSAF and SKS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Anworth Mortgage, MFA Mortgage, New Star Asset Management and Saks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded Anworth Mortgage (NYSE: ANH) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect lower book value estimates based on the widening in agency spreads.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded New Star Asset Management (OTC: NWSAF) to Sell from Buy, as they are negative on the company's business model and growth prospects in the current environment.
  • Saks (NYSE: SKS) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America as they believe the high-end is slowing.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: NVS, AIG, DEO and BEAS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Novartis, AIG, Diageo, and BEA Systems were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • HSBC downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Underweight from Neutral, as they believe the company's mid-single digit pharma sales growth is not sustainable.
  • AIG (NYSE: AIG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Keefe Bruyette due to their concerns about the company's deteriorating profit trends.
  • Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was lowered to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs to reflect a lack of near-term catalysts.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe it is likely that the acquisition will close in April.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

MFA Mortgage: Why I want to kick myself . . .

Ever want to just slap yourself silly for not buying what you know you should have bought in the first place? I'm going through that right now with MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA).

MFA has been able to avoid the whole subprime mortgage chaos and is riding the wonderful wave of the Bernanke rescue effort. It operates as a real estate investment trust, and it stands to benefit from further rate cuts. Oh man, I was thinking of buying this one last summer, but it seems to have put me in the position of should-I-chase-this-or-not. Check out the chart. Thank goodness I at least own the preferred MFA shares (NYSE: MFA-A). I bought those last summer below par value, getting in around $22. The shares are now trading well over $24, and they pay a nice coupon at par -- over 8%. I happen to own another mortgage entity, Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT), which has been discussed previously by Sheldon Liber.

I'm going to be watching the price action on MFA carefully the next few days, perhaps looking to get in. Its dividends have been rising, and on a down day like today, its stock is getting a nice bid (as of this writing, it is up 3% or so).

Analyst upgrades: Small-cap banks, WCN, WRNC and INTX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The small-cap bank sector, Waste Connections, Warnaco Group and Intersections were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Lehman upgraded the small-cap bank sector to Neutral from Negative as they expect the group to benefit from the decline in short-term interest rates and the steeping yield curve. The firm upgraded Associated Banc-Corp (NASDAQ: ASBC), Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) and Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  • Friedman Billings added Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) to its Top Picks list. The firm believes the company can outperform the group and overall market in an economic downturn.
  • Warnaco Group (NASDAQ: WRNC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan on valuation and growth potential.
  • JMP Securities' checks indicate that Intersections (NASDAQ: INTX) is on track to meet EPS expectations for the quarter and is well positioned to beat their 2008 EPS estimate of 80c. The firm raised shares to Strong Buy from Outperform.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations 6-14-07: ACV, AMGN, ATHR and B

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Barnes Group Inc (B), MFA Mortgage Investments (MFA), Alberto-Culver Co (ACV), ZymoGenetics, Inc (ZGEN) and Genelabs Technologies (GNLB) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • CIBC expects Barnes Group (NYSE: B) to benefit from the sustained upswing in the aerospace cycle and robust global execution, starting shares of with a Sector Outperformer rating.
  • JMP Securities is positive on MFA Mortgage Investments' (NYSE: MFA) organic yield improvement potential of its short duration portfolio and the company's modest leverage, starting shares with a Market Outperform rating.
  • William Blair started shares of Alberto-Culver Co (NYSE: ACV) with an Outperform rating, believing the company is one of the better long-term growth opportunities among mid-cap stocks in consumer products.
  • ZymoGenetics Inc (NASDAQ: ZGEN) was started with a Neutral rating at Oppenheimer, since the firm doesn't expect any important new clinical data until Q308.
  • Genelabs Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: GNLB) was started with a Buy at Oppenheimer, saying the company has a portfolio of early-stage programs in the treatment of Hep-C that have the potential to be best-in-class...
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Rodman initiated Amgen, Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) with a Market Perform rating.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice

Last updated: December 02, 2008: 09:56 AM

BloggingStocks Exclusives

Hot Stocks

BloggingStocks Featured Video

TheFlyOnTheWall.com Headlines

WalletPop Headlines

AOL Business News

Latest from BloggingBuyouts

Sponsored Links

My Portfolios

Track your stocks here!

Find out why more people track their portfolios on AOL Money & Finance then anywhere else.

BloggingStocks Partners

More from AOL Money & Finance