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Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 3

Last week, Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A and BRK.B), said India's 26% foreign ownership cap on insurers deters him from such an investment. This follows an earlier report that Buffett aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

After numerous world calamities, Buffett's focus on insurance companies, and the fact that many hedge funds seem to be heavily focused on banks and neglecting insurance companies -- with the exception of Bruce Berkowitz -- I decided to explore the possibilities.

Even though we can anticipate billions of dollars in claims there still are buying opportunites.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 3

Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 2

AIG logoDo you have any interest in insurance companies amidst the turmoil, disaster and current crises in Japan? A crises that followed so closely on the heals of the destruction of the New Zealand city of ChristChurch by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake. Perhaps you think this is even a poorer idea than catching that proverbial falling knife we are always hearing about when stock prices are collapsing.

Certainly there will be billions of dollars in claims. On the other hand, perhaps the burden will be spread around the globe to reinsurer's such that none is struck too hard and this is a buying opportunity. After all, when the dust settles, insurers will cry for mercy, and in particular, rate increases. It is also likely those that never saw the need for insurance have been awakened and demand will increase.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Insurance Stock Review -- Part 2

Analyst Calls: AAPL, AFL, BBT, CMA, ENER, HERO, IBM, LVS, MRO, NE ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • BB&T (BBT) and Aflac (AFL) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
  • Zhongpin (HOGS) to neutral from reduce at Global Hunter.
  • Marathon Oil (MRO), Noble Energy (NBL) and Manulife Financial (MFC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
  • Comerica (CMA) to buy from neutral at Rochdale.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AAPL, AFL, BBT, CMA, ENER, HERO, IBM, LVS, MRO, NE ...

Chasing Value: Insured Profits or a Mountain of Risk?

Ten weeks into the year and never a dull moment. Pondering the remaining 42 weeks and beyond, where will value be found? We know that "my pal Warren" is on the prowl waist high in Berkshire Hathaway cash to invest, and he is on record as chomping on the bit to do so. Just this morning it was reported that Buffett had closed a $9 billion deal to buy Lubrizol Corp. (LZ), the Wickliffe, Ohio-based maker of engine lubricants.

More evidence of this abounds: Wednesday March 2, (Reuters) - US-based Berkshire Hathaway aims to enter the Indian insurance sector as a corporate agent of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance.

This is part 1 of a series examining the insurance market for expansion, stock valuations, potential risks and opportunities, excluding health care focused companies, a whole other breed of enterprise.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Insured Profits or a Mountain of Risk?

Analyst Calls: AET, BMY, DVN, GLW, K, MRK, MT, PETM, SPLS, WY ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Aetna (AET) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
  • Kellogg (K) to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • PetSmart (PETM) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
  • NetApp (NTAP) and Scripps Networks (SNI) to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
  • Thoratec (THOR) to buy from hold at Auriga.
  • ArcelorMittal (MT) to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
  • Bristol-Myers (BMY) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
  • Eaton Vance (EV) to neutral from sell at Ticonderoga.
  • Adtran (ADTN) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AET, BMY, DVN, GLW, K, MRK, MT, PETM, SPLS, WY ...

Chasing Value: Pre-Christmas Quick Takes

To paraphrase Mark Twain "The reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". The world economy has been in shambles for a few years now, and our nation has much work ahead of it. 2010 was an improvement over 2009 and I believe 2011 will show further improvement.

There are lots of ideas running through my mind as I consider where the economy might be heading in 2011. What opportunities lay in front of us waiting to be picked up or passed over? Just five trading days left, and market activity will slow down except among fund managers making adjustments for tax purposes or window dressing. You should examine your tax situation, too.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Pre-Christmas Quick Takes

Analyst Calls: ATW, CIEN, DE, GMCR, GPN, MEE, MT, POT, SNDK, SO, TSO ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • SanDisk (SNDK) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
  • JPMorgan resumed Potash (POT) at overweight, up from neutral.
  • Ariba (ARBA) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Roth Capital.
  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Tesoro (TSO) to overweight from equal weight.
  • Solarfun Power (SOLF) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.
  • Barclays upgraded Ciena (CIEN) to overweight from equal weight.
  • Optimer Pharm (OPTR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
  • Argo Group (AGII) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
  • BofA/Merrill upgraded Green Mountain (GMCR) to buy from underperform and Southern Company (SO) to neutral from underperform.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: ATW, CIEN, DE, GMCR, GPN, MEE, MT, POT, SNDK, SO, TSO ...

Analyst Calls: YHOO, ATHR, JNPR, ADCT, MFC, BHP, AAUKY, RHHBY

Analyst upgrades:
  • ThinkEquity upgraded Yahoo! (YHOO) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, checks that indicate Q2 display/search improvement, search stabilization, improved cost structure, and share repurchases.
  • Societe Generale upgraded Roche Holding (RHHBY) to Buy from Hold based on expectations Avastin will be approved in breast cancer, despite negative FDA briefing documents.
  • FBR Capital upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and positive checks that indicate powerline networking chips are gaining traction in China. The firm has a $43 price target on the stock.
  • Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
  • Ultimate Software (ULTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.
  • Liberty Property Trust (LRY) was upgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Auriga downgraded ADC Telecomm (ADCT) to Hold from Buy following the company's merger announcement with Tyco Electronics (TEL).
  • TD Newcrest expects Manulife's (MFC) Q2 loss to be worse than expected due to the impact from lower interest rates. The firm cut shares to Hold from Buy.
  • Goldman downgraded Perrigo (PRGO) to Sell from Neutral and lowered its target to $50 from $61. The firm cites relative valuation for the downgrade. Target to $50 from $61.
  • F5 Networks (FFIV) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord.
  • Anglo American (AAUKY) and BHP Billiton (BHP) were downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Analyst initiations:
  • QKL Stores (QKLS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $7 price target at Global Hunter.
  • Rodman & Renshaw started Rick's Cabaret (RICK) with an Outperform rating.

Serious Money: Buffett Going Global -- Part 5

To continue the saga of what might be on Warren Buffett's foreign wish list, consider the current holdings of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), the largest of which is insurance. The insurance industry has been hard hit by the economy, but it also has the greatest potential to rebound of any industry. Insurance companies have huge cash flow and a large float (mandated by government regulation) that can be used for investments. This has been a major contributing factor in Buffett's success.

Unlike the construction, automobile or financial sectors that have been met with an economic tidal wave that destroyed demand, there is no lack of demand in the insurance industry. The insurance companies have been hurt by the shrinking of their investment portfolios more than loss of demand or even claims, accepting companies that wrote swaps, like American International Group (AIG).

When next "my pal Warren" invests abroad he may not have to go very far.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Going Global -- Part 5

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: MU, DRIV, HELE, URBN, AKS...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded OceanFreight (NASDAQ:OCNF) to Perform from Underperform on valuation and a lack of negative catalysts following the recent weakness.
  • UBS raised Micron (NYSE:MU) to Buy from Neutral citing supply cuts which should improve prices. The target remains $5.
  • Jesup & Lamont upgraded Atlas Air (NASDAQ:AAWW) to Buy from Hold is positive on the company's 20 year blocked space agreement with DHL and expects the stock to continue higher.
  • AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List and upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
  • Goldman also upgraded Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS) to Buy from Neutral.
  • Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stanford.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Stephens downgraded shares of Titan Machinery (NASDAQ:TITN) after their survey of farmers indicated declining sales of agricultural equipment. The firm lowered their target to $19 but believes Titan Machinery's long-term growth story remains intact.
  • Jefferies downgraded Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) and Blyth (NYSE:BTH) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the further deterioration in the U.S. consumer macro environment could pressure near-term results. The firm lowered its target on Helen of Troy to $13 from $16.50 and on Blyth to $5.50 from $8.
  • UBS cut Indevus (NASDAQ:IDEV) to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $5.50 from $5 following the acquisition offer by Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ENDP).
  • AECOM Tech (NYSE:ACM) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Amerisafe (NYSE:AMSF) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  • Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray.
Analyst initiations:
  • KeyBanc initiated Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) with a Buy rating and $22 target. The firm believes the Urban Outfitters and Antropologie divisions are under penetrated and have visible growth.
  • Kaufman Bros. started SuccessFactors (NASDAQ:SFSF) with a Hold rating and $7 target and believes the current demand backdrop could be worse than reflected in current consensus estimates.
  • CarMax (NASDAQ:KMX) was initiated at Baird with a Neutral rating and $10 target. The firm is impressed with CarMax's business model but does not see a way around the near-term economic headwinds.
  • Manulife Financial (NYSE:MFC) and Sunlife Financial (NYSE:SLF) were assumed with Equal Weight ratings at Morgan Stanley.
  • Oppenheimer started Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ:PSUN) with a Perform rating.
  • Kite Realty Trust (NYSE:KRG) was initiated with a Buy rating at Janney Montgomery.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: URBN, ACAS, CAT, F, A, COF ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded IberiaBank (NASDAQ: IBKC) to Market Perform from Underperform following the company's capital raise, which the firm believes strengthens IberiaBank's balance sheet. Baird upgraded IberiaBank to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation following weakness related to the $100M capital raise.
  • Pali upgraded shares of Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to Neutral from Sell on valuation as they believe the company's comp slowdown is largely priced in at current levels.
  • Morgan Keegan upgraded Casey's General Store (NASDAQ: CASY) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, healthy SSS, and easing comps.
  • Cabot OIl & Gas (NYSE: COG) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) were added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
  • American Capital (NASDAQ: ACAS) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
  • CIBC lifted Manulife (NYSE: MFC) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Goldman downgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Sell from Neutral based on expectations for reduced capex spending by mining and oil & gas companies and the impact from the credit crunch.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded auto companies and suppliers as they believe the failed government bailout increases risks. Ford (NYSE: F), American Axle (NYSE: AXL), Magna International (NYSE: MGA) and Lear (NYSE: LEA) were downgraded to Sell from Hold.
  • SAP (NYSE: SAP) was cut to Hold from Buy at Jefferies to reflect the "deteriorating" corporate IT spend environment.
  • Waters (NYSE: WAT) was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  • Agilent (NYSE: A) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; the firm also downgraded Varian (NASDAQ: VARI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
Analyst initiations:
  • Jefferies believes Core Laboratories (NYSE: CLB) is well positioned to benefit from the increasing need for reservoir optimization services. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $70 target.
  • Deutsche Bank initiated Capital One (NYSE: COF) with a Sell rating and $24 target, citing the difficult economic environment and the potential for higher credit losses.
  • Soleil started Hexcel (NYSE: HXL) with a Buy rating and $10 target and expects the company's military business to remain strong through 2010.
  • On Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ONNN) was assumed with a Neutral rating and $3.80 target at UBS.
  • Cbeyond (NASDAQ: CBEY) was initiated at Oppenheimer with a Perform rating.
  • Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) was started with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: SWHC, WFC ,CCE, GM, FCX

Analyst upgrades:
  • Merriman upgraded Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) to Buy from Neutral on valuation after channel checks indicated an increase in gun sales in October after an Obama win became apparent. The firm believes shares can trade up into the $4 to $5 range.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's improved balance and potential earnings power following its $11B equity offering.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Coca-Cola Enerprises (NYSE:CCE) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation and easing commodity and labor costs.
  • Manulife (NYSE:MFC) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
  • SL Green Realty (NYSE:SLG) was upgraded at UBS to Buy from Neutral.
  • Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Barclays downgraded General Motors (NYSE:GM) to Underweight from Equal Weight on cash concerns and believes any assistance from the government would substantially dilute equity holders. Barclays set a $1 target on GM shares.
  • Stephens cut LandAmerica (NYSE:LFG) to Underweight from Equal Weight following the Fidelity National (NYSE:FNF) takeover as they expect no other bidders to emerge and believe shares could go back to under $5 if Fidelity National walks away.
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded solar companies to reflect deteriorating fundamentals in the sector, an adequate supply of c-Si modules, the strengthening dollar and restricted access to capital. First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ), Energy Conversion (NASDAQ:ENER) and Sunpower (NASDAQ:SPWRA) were downgraded to Hold from Buy.
  • Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) were downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
  • FMC Technologies (NYSE:FTI) was lowered to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
Analyst initiations:
  • Freeport McMoRan, HLS Systems, and Kimberly Clark were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Banc of America expects Freeport McMoRan's (NYSE:FCX) earnings will decline sharply in 2009 and thinks the dividend could be at risk. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating and $29 target.
  • Roth Capital initiated HLS Systems (NASDAQ:HOLI) with a Buy rating and $5 target. The firm is positive on the company's management team and the company's outlook for EPS growth.
  • Citigroup thinks Kimberly Clark's (NYSE:KMB) margins have bottomed and that the current valuation is too low. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $65 target.
  • Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) and Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) were initiated at Merrill Lynch with Neutral ratings.
  • Tim Hortons (NYSE:THI) was assumed with a Sell rating at Goldman.

Newspaper wrap-up: Google in talks with Verizon Wireless and Sprint

MAJOR PAPERS:
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The Star reported that life insurance company Manulife Financial Corporation (NYSE: MFC) is open to making acquisitions in Malaysia if suitable opportunities in the country arise, according to Manulife's senior executive vice-president and general manager for Asia, Robert A. Cook.
  • The U.K. Times reported that British Airways' (OTC: BAIRY) plans to create a new airline offering flights between Europe and New York have been thrown into disarray after the Federal Aviation Administration threatened to block any increase of air traffic into New York's chronically congested JFK Airport.

Investing in Ontario: Research in Motion (RIMM), Nortel Networks (NT), and IMAX (IMAX)

My recent Investing in Ontario post took a look at the Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), Manulife Financial Corp. (NYSE: MFC), and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD); three public companies examined by the Motley Fool this past summer.

However, Ontario is more than just Canada's financial center. Its abundance of resources and location on Great Lakes have made Ontario a manufacturing powerhouse, including steel production and automobile manufacturing in southern Ontario, and mining and forestry in the north. Toronto is Canada's film and media center, as well as an important tourism destination. Niagara Falls is one of world's most popular tourist destinations. Other Ontario companies the Motley Fool liked include Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Nortel Networks Corp. (NYSE: NT), and IMAX Corp. (NASDAQ: IMAX).

Research in Motion (RIM), Canada's largest public company, is well know for its BlackBerry smart phones, but it also provides software development tools and produces radio-based modems used in portable devices. The consensus recommendation of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is to buy RIM, and has been since April. RIM met analysts' earnings per share estimate when it reported second quarter FY2008 earnings in early October, and Wall Street expects EPS of 62 cents in the third quarter, double the 31 cents actual from a year ago. RIM has a five-year EPS growth rate of 73.5%, easily beating the S&P 500 and the technology sector average. RIM's share price has been climbing since a share split in August, to reach a 52-week high of $128.36 on Tuesday; it opened today at $124.75. Also this week, RIM announced plans to sell the BlackBerry in China, and introduced Facebook for the BlackBerry as well. For more on Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) challenge to RIM and other RIM-related news, see Bloggingstocks' RIM coverage.

Continue reading Investing in Ontario: Research in Motion (RIMM), Nortel Networks (NT), and IMAX (IMAX)

Investing in Ontario: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Manulife Financial (MFC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Its abundance of resources and location on the Great Lakes have made Ontario an economic powerhouse. Canada's capital, Ottawa can be found there, as well as its largest city, Toronto, which is also Canada's financial hub. Seven of Ontario's eight largest companies are financial institutions, and Toronto is also the home of one of the largest stock exchanges in the world. When the Motley Fool took a look at stock investment opportunities in Ontario this past June, three of the companies they focused on were financial institutions: Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), Manulife Financial Corp. (NYSE: MFC) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD). Considering the credit crunch and the weakness of the U.S. dollar, I thought it might be interesting to see how those companies are faring now.

The Royal Bank of Canada, also known as RBC Financial Group, is Canada's largest financial institution. It has 1,300 domestic locations and offices in 30 countries. In September, RBC's Gord Nixon won Canada's Outstanding CEO of the Year award for 2007. More recently, RBC announced the acquisition of a Caribbean bank, and it was one of four Canadian banks affected by restructuring at VISA. With RBC's five-year earnings per share growth rate of 26.5% (better than the S&P 500), the consensus recommendation of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is to buy RBC, despite missing earnings expectations for the past two quarters. RBC's share price is near an all-time high on the NYSE, closing Thursday at $57.09 on the NYSE. RBC will release its next quarterly report on November 30.

Continue reading Investing in Ontario: Royal Bank of Canada (RY), Manulife Financial (MFC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-89.2312,801.23
NASDAQ-23.352,903.88
S&P 500-9.311,342.64

Last updated: February 10, 2012: 08:51 PM

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