Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) closed at $36.84. LVS September option implied volatility is at 114, October is at 95; above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is recently down $3.52 t $81.90. WYNN September implied volatility is at 74; October is at 70; above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) closed at $32.45. MGM September option implied volatility is at 93, October is at 91; above its 26-week average of 70, suggesting larger movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Even though the EPS missed estimates, investors seem to be focusing on revenues that beat estimates. The gaming sector has been beaten down so much over the first half of this year that it is possible anything other than a complete meltdown is a catalyst for the stock to rise. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MGM.
MGM opened this morning at $31.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.04 and a high of $34.29. As of 2:35, MGM is trading at $33.85, up $2.85 (9.2%). The chart for MGM looks neutral and S&P gives MGM a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just seven weeks as long as MGM is above $22.50 at September expiration. MGM would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
With a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Las Vegas economic expansion has come to a halt. With people unable to pay for a gallon of gas, it comes as no surprise that they are not in the mood to go gamble. The Independent of the UK had a fascinating article about how Las Vegas is suffering with the slow economy.
According to the report: "With Americans cutting back on luxuries, and the price of transport rocketing, the so-called 'Vegas vacation' is facing the axe. This week, as the nation celebrated Independence Day, major hotels were taking stock of a fall in all-important room occupancy rates from their usually impressive 95 per cent levels to nearer 80 per cent."
Gambling revenues have also slipped 3%. Attendance at conventions, a big contributor to the city's coffers has dropped by more than 7%.
All an investor has to do to see how bad the carnage has been is to check some stocks related to the Las Vegas gambling and tourist industry. Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) has gone in the last 52 weeks from more than $148/share down to around $39, a drop of more than 70%. Ouch. MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) has dropped from more than $100/share to under $30.
As the economy continues to sputter, look for more trouble ahead for Las Vegas. On the other hand, contrarian investors may look at an uptick in the U.S. economy, whenever it happens, as a signal to potentially look at stocks that are associated with Las Vegas.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/6/08.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:
JMP Securities started shares of Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with an Outperform rating and $14 target. The firm believes Kohlberg Capital's alliance with Kohlberg and Company allows Kohlberg Capital to take advantage of considerable expertise. JMP Securities believes Kohlberg Capital has an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Roth Capital initiated ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW) with a Hold rating and $3.60 target and expects EPS pressure from the depreciating dollar near-term.
Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel, citing lack of internal earnings divers and fair valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Oppenheimer initiated VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with a Perform rating and $25 target.
Merrill assumed MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating.
According to internal company and agency documents, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA is investigating into why AMR Corporation's (NYSE: AMR) American Airlines ordered mechanics to skip specific safety instructions to detect damage to planes from potential lightning strikes.
Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is trying to quickly put the finishing touches on a search advertising deal with Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) as billionaire Carl Icahn launches a proxy fight for control of Yahoo's board, according to the New York Post. Yahoo! hopes to announce a deal with Google to create an open platform system within the next week, two inside sources said.
The New York Post reported that a partnership of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and investment company Dubai World may seek to buy the Drake Hotel site from developer Harry Macklowe. If a deal is reached, MGM and Dubai World would assume $580M in defaulted debt and interest, inside sources said.
Denver-based Molson Coors, one of the world's largest brewers, said net income for the quarter that ended March 30 totaled $37.1 million, or 20 cents per share, compared with $4.4 million, or 3 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding a charge related to a joint venture, the company earned 32 cents per share. Net sales after excise taxes rose 10% to $1.36 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predicted a profit of 28 cents on net sales of $1.31 billion.
Molson Coors shares rose $3.94, or 7.4%, to $57.10 in afternoon trading after rising to a 52-week high of $57.74 earlier in the day.
Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage said earnings fell 30% to $118.3 million, or 40 cents per share, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Revenue for the world's second-largest casino company slipped 3% to $1.88 billion, and fell short of expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. They had forecast net income of 43 cents per share on revenue of $1.9 billion.
MGM shares rose 6.6%, or $3.23, to $51.85 in trading Tuesday, but fell to $51.60 in after-hours trading.
While these results may suggest that consumers are spending their increasingly scarce entertainment dollars closer to home, its worth noting that Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Tuesday reported a 22% rise in its Q2 net profit.
After hitting a one-year high of $100.50 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $57.26 in March.. This morning, MGM opened at $60.58. So far today the stock has hit a low of $57.90 and a high of $60.58. As of 1:45, MGM is trading at $58.84, down $2.23 (-3.9%). The chart for MGM looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $75 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two and a half months as long as MGM is below $75 at June expiration. MGM would have to rise by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MGM hasn't been above $75 since early January and has shown resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April or early May) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance MGM might find around $73, where it topped out in January and February.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MGM.
"MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is arguably the world's top publicly traded casino gaming company; from budget-minded families at the Excalibur to high-rollers at the Bellagio, no segment of the market should slip through the cracks," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In Half-Priced Stocks, he explains, "But this is just the beginning: the firm has ambitious plans to leverage its brands and take its gaming/hospitality experience to other growing markets around the world."
"Thanks in part to a landmark merger with cross-town rival Mandalay Group several years ago, MGM is now the dominant player on the booming Las Vegas Strip. The merger also brought together two complementary property portfolios, adding Mandalay's low/mid-tier casinos to MGM's mid/high-end resorts.
"The company also has upscale resorts in other high-profile markets, including Atlantic City's Borgata, Detroit's MGM Grand, and the Beau Rivage on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. Combined, the firm operates around 20 properties featuring more than 42,000 hotel rooms.
"And looking ahead, a busy development pipeline and global expansion plans should keep both of those totals moving briskly forward. The company recently celebrated the introduction of MGM Grand Detroit last October, and that property has already hit the ground running and emerged as a market leader.
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is recently trading at $68.73 in pre-open trading, below its close of $71.81 Thursday.
Goldman says: "MGM pre-released 4Q2007-results appear below expectations." MGM provided a construction update on MGM's CityCenter saying "we expect the construction costs of CityCenter to be $300 million to $600 million higher than our previous estimates of $7.8 billion."
MGM overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and Dubai World announced this morning they would launch a cash tender offer to buy back up to 10 million MGM common shares for $75 to $80 each. The companies' decision came on worries that an economic slowdown will lower demand for gambling. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MGM.
The stock hit its 52 week high of 100.50 in October and set its 52 week low of 59.74 in January. MGM opened this morning at $73.71. So far today the stock has hit a low of $71.82 and a high of $74.29. As of 12:40, MGM is trading at $72.43, up $2.45 (3.5%). The chart for MGM looks bearish and steady while S&P gives MGM a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Following the announced purchase, Lawrence Klatzkin of Jefferies & Co. told his clients that MGM is one of his top three picks and maintains a "buy" rating. According to Klatzkin, investors can expect to see Dubai World continue to add to its MGM holdings. This will continue to help keep the stock strong and definitely minimize any sort of downside risk.
Dubai, which has been swimming in money since the oil boom brought billions into the economy, has been moving fast over the past decade to branch out in its revenue streams. Seeing the end of the country's oil reserves in the near future, the country has been working hard to become one of the world's top tourist destinations, and moving into Las Vegas gaming is just one more step in the country's strategy to remain a relevant world player once the oil runs dry.
Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.
This post was part of the AOL Money & Finance Best & Worst of 2007 feature. The voting has now closed and readers have chosen the Dubaias the breakout city of the year. Be sure to let us know in the comments if you are pleased with this result.
What are breakout cities? Cities that seemed to pop up in news stories with uncommon frequency, that have developed a cachet, that appear on the itinerary of early adopters. For your consideration here are four outstanding, very different candidates for this honor. Which whets your travel appetite?
Dubai City, U.A.E. Nothing helps build a city quicker than petrodollars and a monarchy devoted to world-class projects. Dubai has all of that and more. The city that calls itself the "City Built For Tourism" is known as the home of the world's largest free-standing hotel, the Burj Al Arab. This ultra-ultra-luxury, 1,000-ft. tall hotel with a profile evoking billowing sails has quickly become the symbol of Dubai.
Under the vision of the ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Dubai has used its free-trade zone status to also develop into a world center for business. Having the world's largest manmade harbor and an airline that serves as a hub for the Persian Gulf region (with a new one under construction) helps, too. Dubai's acceptance of other culture's mores has helped turn it into a popular tourism destination, as well.
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) closed at $36.84. LVS September option implied volatility is at 114, October is at 95; above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
With a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Las Vegas economic expansion has come to a halt. With people unable to pay for a gallon of gas, it comes as no surprise that they are not in the mood to go gamble. The Independent of the UK had a fascinating article about how 
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On Tuesday, 
MGM Mirage
What are breakout cities? Cities that seemed to pop up in news stories with uncommon frequency, that have developed a cachet, that appear on the itinerary of early adopters. For your consideration here are four outstanding, very different candidates for this honor. Which whets your travel appetite?
The Wal-Mart Weekly: Retailer accused of sweatshop conditions in Bangladesh
Fog clearing - maybe. Clear skies - no! GE, JNJ, MRK, PG, RTN, WFC
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A fighting chance for the credit markets.
