With a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Las Vegas economic expansion has come to a halt. With people unable to pay for a gallon of gas, it comes as no surprise that they are not in the mood to go gamble. The Independent of the UK had a fascinating article about how Las Vegas is suffering with the slow economy.
According to the report: "With Americans cutting back on luxuries, and the price of transport rocketing, the so-called 'Vegas vacation' is facing the axe. This week, as the nation celebrated Independence Day, major hotels were taking stock of a fall in all-important room occupancy rates from their usually impressive 95 per cent levels to nearer 80 per cent."
Gambling revenues have also slipped 3%. Attendance at conventions, a big contributor to the city's coffers has dropped by more than 7%.
All an investor has to do to see how bad the carnage has been is to check some stocks related to the Las Vegas gambling and tourist industry. Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) has gone in the last 52 weeks from more than $148/share down to around $39, a drop of more than 70%. Ouch. MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) has dropped from more than $100/share to under $30.
As the economy continues to sputter, look for more trouble ahead for Las Vegas. On the other hand, contrarian investors may look at an uptick in the U.S. economy, whenever it happens, as a signal to potentially look at stocks that are associated with Las Vegas.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/6/08.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:
JMP Securities started shares of Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with an Outperform rating and $14 target. The firm believes Kohlberg Capital's alliance with Kohlberg and Company allows Kohlberg Capital to take advantage of considerable expertise. JMP Securities believes Kohlberg Capital has an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Roth Capital initiated ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW) with a Hold rating and $3.60 target and expects EPS pressure from the depreciating dollar near-term.
Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel, citing lack of internal earnings divers and fair valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Oppenheimer initiated VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with a Perform rating and $25 target.
Merrill assumed MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating.
According to internal company and agency documents, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA is investigating into why AMR Corporation's (NYSE: AMR) American Airlines ordered mechanics to skip specific safety instructions to detect damage to planes from potential lightning strikes.
Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is trying to quickly put the finishing touches on a search advertising deal with Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) as billionaire Carl Icahn launches a proxy fight for control of Yahoo's board, according to the New York Post. Yahoo! hopes to announce a deal with Google to create an open platform system within the next week, two inside sources said.
The New York Post reported that a partnership of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and investment company Dubai World may seek to buy the Drake Hotel site from developer Harry Macklowe. If a deal is reached, MGM and Dubai World would assume $580M in defaulted debt and interest, inside sources said.
Denver-based Molson Coors, one of the world's largest brewers, said net income for the quarter that ended March 30 totaled $37.1 million, or 20 cents per share, compared with $4.4 million, or 3 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding a charge related to a joint venture, the company earned 32 cents per share. Net sales after excise taxes rose 10% to $1.36 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial predicted a profit of 28 cents on net sales of $1.31 billion.
Molson Coors shares rose $3.94, or 7.4%, to $57.10 in afternoon trading after rising to a 52-week high of $57.74 earlier in the day.
Las Vegas-based MGM Mirage said earnings fell 30% to $118.3 million, or 40 cents per share, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Revenue for the world's second-largest casino company slipped 3% to $1.88 billion, and fell short of expectations of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. They had forecast net income of 43 cents per share on revenue of $1.9 billion.
MGM shares rose 6.6%, or $3.23, to $51.85 in trading Tuesday, but fell to $51.60 in after-hours trading.
While these results may suggest that consumers are spending their increasingly scarce entertainment dollars closer to home, its worth noting that Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) Tuesday reported a 22% rise in its Q2 net profit.
After hitting a one-year high of $100.50 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $57.26 in March.. This morning, MGM opened at $60.58. So far today the stock has hit a low of $57.90 and a high of $60.58. As of 1:45, MGM is trading at $58.84, down $2.23 (-3.9%). The chart for MGM looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $75 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two and a half months as long as MGM is below $75 at June expiration. MGM would have to rise by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MGM hasn't been above $75 since early January and has shown resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April or early May) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance MGM might find around $73, where it topped out in January and February.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MGM.
"MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is arguably the world's top publicly traded casino gaming company; from budget-minded families at the Excalibur to high-rollers at the Bellagio, no segment of the market should slip through the cracks," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.
In Half-Priced Stocks, he explains, "But this is just the beginning: the firm has ambitious plans to leverage its brands and take its gaming/hospitality experience to other growing markets around the world."
"Thanks in part to a landmark merger with cross-town rival Mandalay Group several years ago, MGM is now the dominant player on the booming Las Vegas Strip. The merger also brought together two complementary property portfolios, adding Mandalay's low/mid-tier casinos to MGM's mid/high-end resorts.
"The company also has upscale resorts in other high-profile markets, including Atlantic City's Borgata, Detroit's MGM Grand, and the Beau Rivage on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. Combined, the firm operates around 20 properties featuring more than 42,000 hotel rooms.
"And looking ahead, a busy development pipeline and global expansion plans should keep both of those totals moving briskly forward. The company recently celebrated the introduction of MGM Grand Detroit last October, and that property has already hit the ground running and emerged as a market leader.
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is recently trading at $68.73 in pre-open trading, below its close of $71.81 Thursday.
Goldman says: "MGM pre-released 4Q2007-results appear below expectations." MGM provided a construction update on MGM's CityCenter saying "we expect the construction costs of CityCenter to be $300 million to $600 million higher than our previous estimates of $7.8 billion."
MGM overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
There are those who counterfeit money and those who make near-perfect knockoffs of 21 different Microsoft programs. Well, Microsoft Corp. (NADSAQ: MSFT) pushed an investigation through 22 countries and local law enforcement officials seized software, equipment and records, and made arrests. Microsoft estimates the retail value of the software the operation generated at $900 million.
The buzz over the $44.6 billion unsolicited bid Microsoft made for Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is far from over with new items as well as speculations coming daily. The Financial Times reports that Softbank yesterday said it had no intention of selling its 41% stake in Yahoo Japan. Meanwhile, Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research speculated Thursday that Microsoft made the stunning proposal as a way to block a possible alliance between Yahoo and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN).
The Wall Street Journal reports that federal prosecutors, looking into the mortgage businesses, have asked the Securities and Exchange Commission for information on Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER).
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Intellon, Memsic and MGM Mirage were today's noteworthy initiations:
Jefferies believes Intellon (NASDAQ: ITLN) is well-positioned to benefit from increasing IPTV rollouts in Europe and Asia, as well as from additional consumer applications in the digital home. The firm assumed shares with a Buy rating and $9 target.
Jefferies also initiated coverage of Memsic (NASDAQ: MEMS) with a Buy rating and $10 target, as they view the company as a compelling investment for investors seeking exposure to high-quality semiconductor companies benefiting from lower-cost China manufacturing.
Banc of America initiated MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating and $76 target, as they are cautious on Las Vegas in 2008 due to decelerating U.S. gaming revenue growth and increasing Strip room supply growth between 2008-2010.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Thomas Weisel initiated Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) with a Market Weight rating.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) and News Corp (NYSE: NWS) were started with Equal Weight ratings at Morgan Stanley.
Merrill initiated Baidu.com (NASDAQ: BIDU) with a Buy rating and $430 target.
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and Dubai World announced this morning they would launch a cash tender offer to buy back up to 10 million MGM common shares for $75 to $80 each. The companies' decision came on worries that an economic slowdown will lower demand for gambling. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MGM.
The stock hit its 52 week high of 100.50 in October and set its 52 week low of 59.74 in January. MGM opened this morning at $73.71. So far today the stock has hit a low of $71.82 and a high of $74.29. As of 12:40, MGM is trading at $72.43, up $2.45 (3.5%). The chart for MGM looks bearish and steady while S&P gives MGM a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
With a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the Las Vegas economic expansion has come to a halt. With people unable to pay for a gallon of gas, it comes as no surprise that they are not in the mood to go gamble. The Independent of the UK had a fascinating article about how Las Vegas is suffering with the slow economy. .gif){kind=logo}
On Tuesday, 
MGM Mirage
There are those who counterfeit money and those who make near-perfect knockoffs of 21 different Microsoft programs. Well, Microsoft Corp. (NADSAQ: .gif){kind=logo}
The week in preview: New quarter earnings kick-off
Comfort Zone Investing: Keep your recovery expectations real
Will Americans have to slim down to fit into their cars?
