TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we'll see a big dip lower, but watch these key stocks for underlying buying interest.

At last, a test, a test of the futures! That's what we have been looking for, one of these gigantic down openings like the old days, where it goes down and you stand there and you get pounded. That's what the market was, basically, from the top of 2007 until March -- a series of days where you came in and the futures were down so much that you knew they were going to go lower, except for the people who shorted it the night before and were taking profits.

Welcome home, bears!

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you wait for market conditions to reach perfection, you'll be waiting a long time.

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says health care has never been this cheap relative to the market in its history.

Health care's not done rallying. As President Obama prepared himself for claiming a great political victory, we are all recognizing that the single-payer, socialized medicine covering cradle-to-grave, 100% paid for by the rich, the fear that left all things health care in the P/E dustbin, is dead. That's not going to happen.

That leaves us with the biggest bargains the market has to offer.

Health care has never been this lowly valued relative to the market in its history. Remember, 98% of the time it trades at a meaningful premium. I think that many believe some of these moves (like the Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) (Cramer's Take) move) is because of gigantic new drug finds. In fact, I think they just got too cheap and the only thing really meaningful about the Celgene rally came because one of its Revlimid studies was stopped for good results, actually a predictable event given how well the drug works on many different kinds of cancers.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded shares of Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX) to Buy from Hold following the company's lowered guidance as 2009 is fully contracted with a 26% price increase. The firm raised its target to $40 from $38.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it thinks the sell-off on the company's Q4 miss and cautious guidance is overdone.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) to Outperform from Market Perform because the firm thinks the outlook of the company's two main markets is improving. The firm believes the company's valuation is attractive. Thomas Weisel upgraded Boston Scientific to Overweight from Market Weight citing valuation and improving fundamentals.
• Goldman added MasterCard (NYSE: MA) to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• Accuray (NASDAQ: ARAY) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  
• KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they find the risk/reward compelling at current levels. Jefferies has a $2 target on the stock.
  
• Dresdner upgraded HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Buy from hold on valuation as they believe the dividend cut is fully priced in at current levels.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) to Neutral from Underweight on valuation as they recommend short positions take profits at current levels.
• Kellogg (K) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• RPM, Inc (NYSE: RPM) and Valspar (NYSE: VAL) were upgraded at KeyBanc to Buy from Hold.
  
• Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded Dune Energy (AXE: DNE) to Underperform from Hold to reflect weak commodity prices and the company's reduced financial flexibility. The firm lowered its target price to 10c from 30c.
• Baird downgraded NeuStar (NYSE: NSR) to Neutral from Outperform and lowered their target to $20 from $22 based on 2009 revenue concerns and the CFO's departure.
  
• UBS cut Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $18 from $27. The firm believes advertising declines will be worst than expected and that Film expectations are too high.
• Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND) and Tenet Healthcare (THC) were downgraded at Barclays to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Cynosure (NASDAQ: CYNO) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.

Analyst initiations:

• Keefe Bruyette believes Blackstone's (NYSE: BX) operating results and cash flow generation are likely to remain depressed well into 2009 given the weakening economy. The firm started shares with a Market Perform rating and $6 target.
  
• Oppenheimer views Brinks (NYSE: BCO) as a pure-play secure logistics company and feels it is well positioned to take advantage of a recent decline in acquisition prices. The firm has an Outperform rating and $32 target on the stock.
• Kellogg (NYSE: K) was initiated with a Buy rating and $52 target at Janney Montgomery.
• Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) was started at Barclays with an Equal Weight rating.
• Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and $59 target at Bernstein.

The market's choppy/consolidating tone, combined with the slow-growth/no-growth U.S. economy, suggests it is prudent to add a defensive stock or two to your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind, Medco Health Solutions is worth a review.

Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) is one of the largest U.S. pharmacy benefit managers, with services provided to client/member PBMs and physicians/pharmacies. (Note: Medco Health's shares split 2-for-1 on January 10, 2008.)

Analysts like Medco's high account retention, new business wins, economies of scale, and the company's entry into the Medicare Part B segment with its acquisition of PolyMedica.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Smith International, Cerner and Coach were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• JP Morgan upgraded Smith International (NYSE: SII) to Overweight from Neutral citing better risk/reward vs. group, and upside to estimates from Latin America drilling and its deepwater rig fleet. Note that Oppenheimer downgraded shares of SII based on valuation.
  
• Jefferies believes Cerner Corp. (NASDAQ: CERN) in-line results and solid domestic bookings could alleviate the pressure on shares. Shares were raised to Buy from Hold.
  
• Shares of Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) were raised to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, citing sales stabilization and compelling valuation.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.
  
• ThinkPanmure raised VMware Inc. (NYSE: VMW) to Buy from Accumulate.
  
• SunTrust Banks (NYSE: STI) was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: National City, Syntax Brillian and Medco Health were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Buy from Sell on valuation as they believe their $9.00 target is in-line with the company's franchise value.
  
• Baird upgraded Syntax Brillian (NASDAQ: BRLC) to Outperform from Neutral based on recently announced strategic initiatives and valuation.
  
• Jefferies upgraded shares of Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's renewed PBM contract with United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH) removes a major overhang.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Friedman Billings raised Downey Financial (NYSE: DSL) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  
• Volterra (VNASDAQ: LTR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
  
• Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS) was raised at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.

Sometimes our biggest medical emergency is the cost of the drugs we need to treat our physical ailments. There is a firm in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, that actively pursues initiatives to cut increasing drug costs and it has some clout. It is the nation's leading pharmacy benefit manager and operates the country's largest mail order pharmacy.

Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) serves some 65 million members in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Patients fill their prescription needs through a network of close to 60,000 pharmacies, a mail-order program, or the company's online pharmacy. Medco helps contain pharmacy health care costs for private and public employers, health plans, labor unions, government agencies, and individuals served by the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program. Cigna (NYSE: CI) and Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) are major competitors. IBM (NYSE: IBM) is a major customer.

Most portfolios could benefit from a pharmacy supply play for defensive purposes, and Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) is worthy of consideration for this role. Medco Health is one of the largest pharmacy benefits managers in United States, with services provided to member health plans offered by unions, HMOs, and corporations, among other organizations.

Analysts like Medco's high account retention, new business wins, economies of scale, and the company's entry into the Medicare Part B segment with its acquisition of PolyMedica. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for MHS are $3.60/$4.38.

The risks? Analysts have their eye on the increased market penetration of generic drugs and some pricing pressure in contract renewals. Also, the stock's PE ratio of 30 is high, even considering MHS's growth prospects, hence the stock is vulnerable to a pull-back. The problem with the 'buy on pull-back' tactic here is that MHS's pull-backs have been mild, so there's no guarantee of a 5% pull-back before a share purchase decision.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that now, teetering financials and homebuilders will topple and safety plays will rule. Ouch.

Couple of tough days ahead. We were overbought going into this Fed decision; now we will have to pay for it, and pay for it big. We have to lose a lot that we gained, expecting that the Fed would work hand-in-hand with the Treasury Department to get us out of this jam.

But that's not going to happen now. You can see what will happen. They will kill the banks again. The fundraising that was going on will be halted. We will get some failures. The homebuilder credit lines? Some will not be extended.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that as counterintuitive as it seems, there are many stocks that will rise despite this huge bad news.

We're back in 1990 again. That was when commercial construction threatened to wipe out the U.S. banking system and the S&P 500 went down 13% in a heartbeat between the spring and the fall.

I trotted out this analogy in the summer to explain what a disaster could look like if the Fed, which at that time knew nothing, didn't do anything or, heaven forbid, did what the clueless Bill Poole wanted them to do, and tighten.

The market's been fighting with 1990 ever since. When I read about the losses and the need for the banks and the insurers to shore up capital -- $7.9 billion for Merrill, Dougie? Say it ain't so! -- I think to myself, "Oh my, it is 1990 when funding became a problem for every major bank." (Tremendous credit to my friend Doug Kass for flagging this.)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BEA Systems, Nokia, Medco Health, Quest Diagnostics and PetSmart were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Citigroup downgraded shares of BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Hold from Buy on valuation following the $17/share offer by Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) as they think a public bidding war for the company is unlikely.
  
• ABN Amro downgraded shares of Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) to Hold from Buy on valuation and believes above consensus Q3 results are already priced into shares.
  
• Wachovia downgraded Medco Health Solutions (NYSE: MHS) to Market Perform from Outperform on valuation.
  
• The firm also downgraded Quest Diagnostics (NYSE: DGX) to Market Perform from Outperform, as they believe the prospects from stabilizing volumes and cost savings are reflected in valuation and Street estimates.
  
• Credit Suisse downgraded shares of PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM) to Neutral from Outperform citing aggressive pricing at Petco, accelerating growth initiatives, limited visibility around expense management, and lack of consistent results.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ: MEOH) was downgraded to Sector Underperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
  
• Rochdale downgraded Heico Corporation (NYSE: HEI) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• JP Morgan downgraded BankUnited Financial Corp (NASDAQ: BKUNA) to Neutral from Outperform and removed Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q) from its Focus List.
  
• Goldman removed MetLife (NYSE: MET) from its Conviction Buy List.
  
• Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Standford and at Stifel.

Today's important stories from TheStreet.com: Cramer's Advice for the Fed Might Surprise You, Top 10 Value Stocks With Increasing Dividends

You know you are in trouble when fans at the big game want to talk about the Federal Reserve's meeting. Well, then again, if you are an Eagles or Giants fan, that's pretty much all that's worth talking about.

The impact, though, is simply too outsized to be trusted. The setup is too hard. The decision is too un-gameable. I haven't liked this setup since we started rallying last week, and I liked it less when we moved up Monday morning.

We have been lucky, ever since the cut in the discount window rate, to live in a world where you might wake up and find that the Fed was taking action. The mystery has benefited every group in one way or another, from the homebuilders to the oil companies.

Enough people have been buying Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) , or Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) to make the last few weeks a pretty good time.

MedcoHealth Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: MHS) dispenses 500 million prescriptions each year, and assists drug plans with negotiating discounts with pharmaceutical companies and processing claims. The company today said it will pay $1.5 billion in cash to acquire PolyMedica Corp. (NASDAQ: PLMD), which distributes blood glucose test kits, insulin, syringes, and other supplies directly to the homes of a million diabetes patients through its Liberty Healthcare division.

One of my former students is an executive at PolyMedica and we recently discussed some of its efforts to cut costs and tighten its operations, but I had no idea this deal was in the works. The deal appears to make sense to me because MedcoHealth has a long history of making drug delivery more efficient. And my hunch is that MedcoHealth will streamline PolyMedica's delivery of diabetes supplies.

MedcoHealth envisions a big market for diabetes supply distribution. It estimates that 17 million Americans are currently treated for diabetes, with more than one million patients diagnosed each year. With diabetes care spending increasing by 14.5% annually, diabetes treatments by 2009 are expected to overtake cholesterol medicines as the fastest-growing drug category.

The 17% premium MedcoHealth is paying over Monday's closing price suggests that it believes PolyMedica will be able to add significantly to its profits as it takes a bigger piece of the diabetes market. With MedcoHealth's stock up following the announcement, investors seem to agree that this is a healthy deal.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.