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Natural Gas Use Likely to Double

natural gasA new study conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology states that natural gas usage will double in the next several decades, from the present 20% to 40%.

Why natural gas? First off, we have plenty of it. Globally, we have a century and half of recoverable natural gas. In the Unites States, the amount of recoverable gas is equal to 92 times consumption.

Continue reading Natural Gas Use Likely to Double

New U.S. export: labor

Now that it's reached 10.2%, the unemployment rate is higher than it's been in 26 years. That puts plenty of people on the hunt for work, especially since the unemployment rate doesn't reflect everyone who's been affected by the recession, such as those who have been unemployed too long or who are underemployed. Lacking alternatives at home, more Americans are heading overseas to find their fortunes weather the storm.

The number of people looking for international work through Manpower Inc. (MAN), the largest staffing firm in the country, has increased over the past six months. Half a year ago, Jeff Joerres, the company CEO, said that only a few dozen were looking for work outside the U.S. Now, it's up to 500. He tells USA Today, "It is a phenomenon we haven't had before."

Continue reading New U.S. export: labor

Commercial real estate comeback

Investment-grade commercial real estate prices gained 4.4% in the third quarter of this year. But, it's hard to tell if -- like brief blips of hope we've seen in consumer spending, unemployment and even luxury meals in London -- this is a change in the market or just a tease.

This increase in the MIT Center for Real Estate's transaction-based index (TBI) is the first up-tick in more than a year and the biggest gain since the middle of 2007. One quarter doesn't make a trend, cautions David Geltner, director of research at the MIT Center for Real Estate, but he says, "this is the strongest sign of a bottom that we've had in two years." The TBI reached 36.5% below its 2007 peak last quarter, up from 39% from the high-water mark in mid-2007.

Continue reading Commercial real estate comeback

Fortune strikes out

Fortune, which shares a parent, Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), with BloggingStocks, struck out this week. What I mean is that it published three articles -- each of which I think completely missed the boat. I really like when Fortune gets an in-depth interview with interesting business leaders. But sometimes, it goes too far praising its subjects.

That may have been what happened in the three stories where I think Fortune whiffed:

  • Providence Equity Partners. Fortune had a cover story praising Providence Equity Partners for closing the biggest private equity deal ever. Unfortunately, as I posted, that $52 billion deal fell apart this week. To be fair, Fortune updated its online version of the article with this information. Strike One.
  • Bernanke saves the day. Fortune posted an article praising Bernanke for stopping the slide in the stock market with his fast interest rate cuts and emergency lending. This week that illusion was burst as the Dow lost 507 points. Strike Two.

Continue reading Fortune strikes out

Option update: SAP volatility flat; Professor says MSFT should buy SAP

SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) closed at $48.05 Friday.

Michael A Cusumano, a professor at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said in the New York Times on February 24, 2008 that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), "rather than acquire Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), should pursue SAP." SAP is a German software company has more than 46,100 customers in more than 120 countries running applications from SAP.

SAP overall option implied volatility of 31 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Retirement planning that sends you to Harvard

Harvard, Stanford, Notre Dame, and MIT have all received permission from the IRS to allow donors to invest in their endowments (WSJ, registration required). By structuring investments as charitable trusts, donors receive a regular distribution until death, and then the money goes to the school.

The returns earned by endowments at schools such as Harvard and Yale are impressive. The Harvard endowment has returned 15.2% per year for the past 10 years, crushing the S&P 500's return of 8.3%. In addition to their strong performance, endowments are diversified across so many different asset classes that they often bear a very low correlation to the stock market. While investing in endowments is often inefficient in terms of taxes, the historically higher returns some have earned has more than made up for it.

If tax rules loosen up and allow endowment investors to keep a greater share of their gains, we could see endowments become a popular vehicle for retirement planning. Instead of watching the Final Four basketball games, investors could keep a close eye on which school is earning the highest returns.

I wonder how much correlation there would be between the prestige of a school and the performance of its endowment. As Warren Buffett has said, "Success in investing doesn't correlate with IQ once you're above the level of 25. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."

College courses online: Who gains?

College courses are now becoming available on the Internet. Some are available for free while some cost money. Earlier today, Zac Bissonnette posted about MIT's "OpenCourse Ware" and this is certainly not the only resource for free college class notes. For example, Yale too has announced intentions to make certain courses available for free over the Internet. These schools are making courses free under the Open Educational Resources Initiative. Basically, this program hopes to make the world's knowledge more available to all.

However, several questions emerge. First, will the creation of these free online courses hurt companies like The Teaching Company? I have purchased lecture series from The Teaching Company and I was very satisfied. But I'd happily choose free courses (if they fit my interests) over their somewhat expensive courses (although ridiculously cheap when compared to the cost of college these days). In addition, and more importantly, will the creation of free online courses help those who are underprivileged rise to higher levels? This question brings up the more important issue: is it the knowledge or the name that is gained by attending an Ivy League school? If it is indeed the knowledge that justifies the hefty prices, than those who are committed could certainly stand to do very well. However, if those who attend Ivy League schools receive more job offers and so on simply because of the name on the resume then this creation of "free courses" won't help those who don't beyond expanding their knowledge.

Take MIT classes: FOR FREE!

In an effort to advance online distance learning, MIT has launched a site called MIT OpenCourseWare. The site provides the course materials -- lectures, assignments, exams, notes, etc. -- for almost every single course the Massachusetts Institute of Technology currently offers. The is no cost and no registration. You can simply browse through the course materials. There is something there for everyone but investment-minded folks in particular might want to browse through the course materials for these courses:

Economic Applications of Game Theory

Financial Management

Real Estate Finance and Investment

Some of the courses have more content than others. Some include transcripts of the lectures, while others just include notes. One of the most helpful features is probably the reading list that is available for each course.

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 08:29 AM

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