Analyst Upgrades

• Research In Motion (RIMM) to buy from sell and Gap (GPS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Archer Daniels (ADM) and Airgas (ARG) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Valero Energy (VLO) to top pick from sector perform and Western Refining (WNR) to outperform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• Fred's (FRED) to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan.
• Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Willis Group (WSH) and Brown & Brown (BRO) to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) to strong buy from market perform at Raymond James.

U.S. stock futures are mixed this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data on retail sales and manufacturing activity in the New York area. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3 points to 12,227.00 and S&P 500 futures fell 0.30 point to 1,327.40. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1 point to 2,382.75.

European markets were mixed today. While STOXX Europe 600 Index has gained 0.12%, London's FTSE 100 Index moved down 0.06%.

Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gaining 0.20% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 moving down 0.08%.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded T. Rowe Price (TROW) to outperform from market perform, citing strong flows and a potential recovery in the U.S. equity markets.
• UBS upgraded BorgWarner (BWA) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $50 from $48. The firm expects BorgWarner to benefit from fuel economy regulation.
• Cowen upgraded Celgene (CELG) to neutral from underperform, citing improved fundamentals and valuation for the upgrade.
• TRW Automotive (TRW) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Finish Line (FINL) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Jazz Pharmaceutical (JAZZ) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

Analyst Upgrades

• Baird upgraded Dell (DELL) to outperform from neutral, citing valuation and improving IT hardware trends. The firm raised its target to $21 from $17.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Regal Entertainment (RGC) to buy from neutral, citing box office momentum and improving potential for a dividend increase. The firm raised its target for shares to $20.50 from $16.
• Thomas Weisel upgraded CF Industries (CF) to overweight from market weight as it sees reduced financing risk following the equity offering and valuation.
• GameStop (GME) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
• Cameron (CAM) was raised to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Like Willis Re (WSH) and Marsh & McLennan's (MMC) Guy Carpenter, reinsurance broker Aon Benfield (AOC) found risk-transfer pricing to have softened at the April 1, 2010 reinsurance renewal. It was the same story around the world: the Q1 catastrophes may do some damage to earnings, but the sector was sufficiently capitalized to absorb the shocks. In fact, Aon Benfield reported that the reinsurance industry had nearly returned to record capital levels. At the beginning 2008, the sector was in the same situation before the financial crisis and Hurricane Gustav and Ike depleted balance sheets on the same weekend in September.

The first quarter of 2010 will probably go down in history as the worst ever for catastrophe losses.

According to global reinsurance broker Willis Re (WSH), the insurance industry recorded $16 billion in insured losses, from the Chile earthquake and Windstorm Xynthia in Europe, but the largest losses occurred in smaller markets, where it premium volumes aren't as large. Since the third and fourth quarters tend to be the most loss-prone of the year, a quarter that is normally quiet could set the stage for outsized losses.

The first quarter catastrophes weren't enough to push property-catastrophe reinsurance rates lower. Even though the first quarter was a busy one for catastrophe losses, particularly for global reinsurers, they weren't sufficient to change the market. As a result, the four regions renewing at April 1, 2010 -- the United States, Japan, Latin America and South Korea -- ranged from soft to controlled, according to the latest from Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh & McLennan (MMC). This comes as no surprise, as indications throughout the run-up to the renewal pointed to an orderly process in which there would be enough capital to support the market's needs.

The end of a year means a rush of data from the insurance and reinsurance industries, as treaties are renewed for the coming year. Catastrophe bonds are a part of this annual orgy of data production, as a flurry of activity occurs in December, with the industry's commitment to this form of alternative property-catastrophe risk-transfer setting the tone for the year to come. The cat bond market isn't big enough to push reinsurance rates, but you can generally get a sense of what the coming year will look like for cat bonds based on pricing for traditional reinsurance.

Lloyd's of London is poised to take some risks in 2010. In fact, it's ready to put more than $36 billion into the insurance and reinsurance world, according to analysts at reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter, a division of Marsh & McLennan (MMC).

The year-over-year increase could be as high as 27% compared to 2009, with the additional capacity coming from lower risk-transfer rates for some lines of business, though much of it is being offered to compensate for the weakness of the British pound relative to stronger currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.

Analyst Upgrades

• FBR Capital upgraded New York Community Bancorp (NYB) to outperform from market perform following the FDIC-assisted acquisition of AmTrust. The firm raised its target price on shares to $16 from $11.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Brocade (BRCD) to outperform from perform to reflect valuation, low investor expectations, and the company's potential to gain market share in IP/Ethernet switching. The firm set a target price of $8.50 on shares.
• Stifel Nicolaus upgraded National Health Investors (NHI) to buy from hold following the announcement that the litigation vs. Care Foundation has been dismissed. The firm has a $37 target on the stock.
• American Express (AXP) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• ACE Ltd. (ACE) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Kohl's (KSS) was raised to outperform from neutral at Baird.

If the Senate's proposed Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act passes the Senate, the working stiff will probably be affected. A study by Mercer finds that 63% of employers would cut the health benefits they offer in order to avoid an excise tax included in the bill.

Mercer, a division of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), reveals that 25% of employers offer health insurance programs that would be "too generous" under the act, making them subject to a 40% nondeductible tax on the excess value.

Progressive (NYSE: PGR) an auto insurance company, closed at $14.50. PGR July option implied volatility is at 49, August is at 44; below its 26-week average of 60; according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Willis Group (NYSE: WSH) a brokerage and risk management company, closed at $25.66. WSH July and August option implied volatility of 44 is below its 26-week average of 54, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) closed at $20.39. MMC July option implied volatility is at 32, August is at 36; below its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.