"Happy New Year. No, I'm not seven weeks late. 1.3 billion Chinese are celebrating the biggest holiday of the year -- Chinese New Year," notes Tony Sagami.

The contributing editor to UnCommon Wisdom explains, "The Lunar New Year is considered to be a combination of Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's all rolled into an elaborate celebration of reflection, gratitude, renewal and hope. It is the single most celebrated holiday in China.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Target (NYSE: TGT) to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $52 from $45 citing reduced inventories, some credit stability, and an improved back-to-school period.
• Credit Suisse said concerns regarding Safeway's (NYSE: SWY) price position are overblown and that earnings risk is limited. The firm upgraded shares to Outperform from Neutral and raised the target price to $25 from $22.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to Outperform from Perform as it believes the story is underappreciated following the recent sector rally. The firm has a $14 price target on the stock.
• CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) was upgraded to buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at FTN Equity.

What makes a good speculative stock? A great story? A low price? No and no. Stories are fun, but they're no way to invest. A low price doesn't mean anything if there isn't a company with assets or earnings.

My idea of a good speculation is a turnaround situation or a company with high book value selling at a price well below it. Here are five stocks that fit in these two categories.

Analyst upgrades:

• Canaccord upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Buy from Hold citing valuation following the severe price decline following BHP Billiton's (NYSE: BHP) dropped bid.
• UBS upgraded Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and defensive business mix.
• Jefferies upgraded shares of HealthSouth (NYSE: HLS) to Buy from Hold on valuation and maintains a $13.50 target.
• Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL) was raised to buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• PG&E (NYSE: PCG) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Buy from Neutral.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Analyst downgrades:

"Since 2002, Macau has become a gambling mecca like no other, even Las Vegas" says Jim Trippon, who looks at Melco Crown Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL).

In his specialty newsletter, The China Stock Digest, he explains "Simply put, the Chinese love to gamble, and the combination of their new freedoms and new wealth have uncorked a gusher of revenue."

He explains, "Melco has delivered industry-beating earnings growth in the booming Macau gaming, entertainment, and hospitality industries. The company's recent reorganization has lifted it from a loss to profitability. Net revenue for the first quarter of 2008 was $482.9 million, up from $179.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. That's a 267% jump!

"Net income for the first quarter of 2008 was $43.2 million, compared with a net loss of $36.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. In a few short months the company's key asset, Crown Macau, has become the busiest casino in the world in gaming volume.

"Macau's government announced in April that it would rein in the booming gaming industry by halting the issue of new licenses and by freezing land allocations for the construction of more casinos.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Melco PBL Entertainment, Helen of Troy, LHC Group and Oriental Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Jefferies initiated shares of Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL) with a Buy rating and $21 target, as they believe the possibility of A-Max, a VIP junket consolidator, moving up to 10 junkets to the Crown Casino could lead to short-term gains and notes that MPEL is the only Macau pure play in the U.S. stock market.
  
• Jefferies also started shares of Helen of Troy (NASDAQ: HELE) with a Hold rating and $21 target, as they sees risks to near-term EPS from soft consumer demand and gross margin pressures.
  
• Credit Suisse expects LHC Group's (NASDAQ: LHCG) rural-focused strategy and joint venture partnerships to drive organic growth and started shares off with an Outperform rating and $26 target.
  
• Oriental Financial Group (NYSE: OFG) was initiated at B. Riley with a Neutral rating and $12.50 target. The firm does not expect significant multiple expansion from current levels given the slow Puerto Rican economy.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• JP Morgan initiated Eagle Rock Energy (NASDAQ: EROC), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP), MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) and Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) with Neutral ratings.
  
• Bernstein initiated Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S), AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) with Market Perform ratings and targets of $21, $47 and $44, respectively.

A.G.Edwards initiated coverage in the Internet sector: aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Monster Worldwide (NASDAQ: MNST), Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE), ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) all started as Buy. IAC/Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI) and Knot, Inc. (NASDAQ: KNOT) were started as Hold.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) was started as Buy at Bank of America.

Lehman Brothers started the brokerage firm sector in new coverage under Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) started as Overweight, The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) started as equal weight, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) started as equal weight.

Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL), the independent Macau casino, was removed from the Citigroup Sell list and raised to a Hold rating.

At Goldman Sachs, Accenture, Ltd. (NYSE: ACN) started as Buy in new coverage. (For a full summary of Goldman Sachs research, click here.)

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO) added to America's Conviction Buy List with a $76 target (ex-Kraft); raised 2008 targets by 2-3%.

You can review a full research summary at 24/7 Wall St.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Citigroup (C), Altria Group, Inc (MO), and TreeHouse Foods Inc (THS) were today's notable upgrades:

• Bank of America upgraded Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) to Buy from Neutral with a $58 target to reflect the low valuation and the company's opportunities to increase earnings growth over the next year.

• Altria Group (NYSE: MO) was added to Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List. The firm believes shares, excluding Kraft (KFT), could reach $76 over the next 12 months. Goldman also thinks Altria may announce a spinoff of its Philip Morris International unit this summer.

• TreeHouse Foods Inc (NYSE: THS) was upgraded to Buy from Sell on valuation at Matrix.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE: SU) was upgraded Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.

• Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ: MPEL) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.

• Prudential upped J.M. Smucker Co (NYSE: SJM) to Neutral from Underweight.

• BMO upgraded Smurfit-Stone Container Corp (NASDAQ: SSCC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Raymond James upgraded Cbeyond, Inc (NASDAQ: CBEY) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Stifel upgraded Accenture Ltd (NYSE: ACN) to Buy from Hold with a $44 target.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Jim Cramer changed his mind about a stock. Morgans Hotel Group. Co. (NASDAQ:MHGC) has gone up after Cramer thought it wouldn't back at the end of last year. The CIBC analyst that had remained positive on the show that came on said their target on this one was $27. He thinks the Hard Rock deal may help but the other deals that it has under contract and in negotiations with will drive the company.

Cramer then said he was looking at Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ:MPEL) and said the exposure to Macau on other casinos may come into play against the names. He noted MPEL on his SELL BLOCK on Thursday. Cramer said he's done on Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS).

It's Thursday, so on CNBC's MAD MONEY Jim Cramer featured his SELL BLOCK, where he reviews some past picks and says to Sell or to Stick With It.

He says that of his recent picks in IPO's he wants to review Clearwire Corp. (NASDAQ:CLWR). He would Sell Fortress Investment Group (NYSE:FIG) to switch into Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS). He would also Sell Melco PBL Entertainment (NASDAQ:MPEL) in Macau, as he was wrong and it is down 16%, and IPG Photonics (NASDAQ:IPGP) which is down 21% from the first day's close. Cramer likes trying to get in on the IPO pricing because you have a lower chance of getting hurt.

Cramer does have ones that he likes from the recent IPO pool: Switch & Data Facilities Co. (NASDAQ:SDXC) is one he likes right now. AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) and Opnext Inc. (NASDAQ:OPXT) are ones that you can buy on weakness.