Those who were hoping for an Obama victory lap on the floor of the NYSE only got their toes bitten by bears. Weakening economic data and the market preparing for very weak retail sales numbers took away any shot of major gains today, and you can always blame major profit taking after a multi-day rally phase we saw.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) was slapped after the global steel giant gave guidance for EBITDA in Q4 at $2.5 to $3.0 billion. This is being taken as an earnings warning with 2008 expectations being implied at roughly $24.2 billion as being more than 10% under consensus expectations. Shares were down 20% at $25.30 on above average volume shortly before the close.
Greenhill & Co., Inc. (NYSE: GHL) was down after it filed to sell up to 3.5 million shares of common stock in a secondary offering. Shares were down over 11% at $61.61 shortly before the close.
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT - option chain) shares have dropped sharply after the company announced it will cut steel production globally by 30% during the fourth quarter due to declining prices and sluggish growth. MT had previously announced a 15% production cut earlier this year. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MT or another steel manufacturer.
This morning, MT opened at $26.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.73 and a high of $27.52. As of 12:25, MT is trading at $26.16, down $5.54 (17.5%). The chart for MT looks bearish.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bear-call credit spread above the $40 range.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT), a global steel producer, is recently trading at $26.90 in pre-open trading, below its close of $31.70. MT reported Q3 EPS of $2.79 verses consensus of $4.01. MT December option implied volatility of 94 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) closed at $9.01 Tuesday. MTL is a Russian mining, steel and power company. MTL December option implied volatility of 177 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
US Steel (NYSE: X) is recently trading at $38.75 in pre-open trading, below its close of $41.17. X November option implied volatility of 97 is above its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
The focus of last week's preview was on oil and energy companies, and we saw that big oil had a good week, reporting better-than-expected results and record profits driven by high prices in the third quarter. Energy-related companies are well represented again this week and expectations in general remain high.
Early in the week, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that the big earnings gainers will include EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), and Cimarex Energy Co. (NYSE: XEC), which are expected to post profits of $2.24 per share (up 64.7% from a year ago), $1.48 per share (up 52.7%) and $2.26 per share (up 61.1%) respectively. All three of them have offered positive surprises in recent quarters, and analysts on average recommend buying EOG and Anadarko. Other expected big earnings gainers early in the week include Forest Oil Corp. (NYSE: FST), Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE: PXD), Comstock Resources Inc. (NYSE: CRK), and MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA). The earnings of phosphates producer Innophos Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: IPHS) are expected to have risen 92.3% to $3.37 per share. Innophos beat estimates in the previous quarter by a whopping 210%, and analysts have been impressed with Innophos's lack of debt and pricing gains despite the slowing economy, so, on average, they recommend buying IPHS.
Also early in the week, analysts expect Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT), Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU), and Oshkosh Corp. (NYSE: OSK) to report that their profits fell 52.9% to $0.33 per share, 45.1% to $0.67 per share, and 41.2% to $0.67 per share, respectively. These companies have tended to beat estimates in recent quarters, and the consensus recommendations of analysts are to buy them. However, PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI), one of the largest private mortgage insurance providers in the U.S., is expected to take another hit as the housing slump drags on. The California-based company is expected to have widened its net loss from $1.04 per share a year ago to $2.43 per share in the most recent quarter. Its shares are down 84.5% from a year ago, and have been trading recently near their 52-week low.
There were two big trades on Wall Street today: One was the bailout trade, which included financial stocks obviously, but other than the big banks, investors also went after the second-tier firm -- the smaller, regional banks. The other big trade was the economy. As the U.S. and global economy slows down, retailers, techs and a variety of materials and industrials will suffer. Investors showed their concerns over the economy today, hammering down many of these stocks down.
Here are a few big losers from today:
Financials - obviously, financials depended on the bailout plan more than others, at least in the immediate future:
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) declined 17.6%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) slumped 15%. Citigroup (NYSE: C) declined nearly 12%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) sank 12.5% and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) plunged over 15%.
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) was the Dow's biggest loser today with a 17.5% drop thanks to Citigroup cutting profit estimates of the credit card company.
Second-tier banks declined much more:
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) slipped over 27%, CIT Group Inc. (NYSE: CIT) lost 25.5%, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) fell 43.6%, FirstFed Financial Corp. (NYSE: FED) tumbled over 25%, First Horizon National Corp. (NYSE: FHN) slipped 35.7% and National City Corp. (NYSE: NCC) tumbled 63.3%.
Eoin Treacy of Fullermoney says that as commodities prices weaken, you need to look carefully before investing.
Q. Eoin, I've read that China's annual consumption of copper has declined from a 28.66% growth rate to 2.4%. What does that mean for continued growth in China and also for the global copper market?
A. China and indeed much of Asia and the Middle East are in a generational-long period where they have to build infrastructure from the ground up. The push for educating, housing, transporting and employing large young populations requires massive investment, fueling demand for commodities across the boards.
The supply side was completely taken unawares by this demand following the 20-year crushing bear market that cut exploration budgets to the bone. That is now changing, as major mining groups compete for the best resources, particularly in politically stable parts of the world.
China continues to lead the world in terms of GDP growth, although it has recently manufactured a slowdown to combat rising inflation, generally positive for the economy.
U.S. stock futures are higher Wednesday morning, a day after markets rallied around 2.4% due to declining oil prices. But today, ADP monthly employment data will be released, as well as weekly oil inventories data. Investors will digest the numbers and the slew of earnings due for release.
Already reported this morning (to name a few):
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) said its second-quarter profit rose 8% as cable TV rates rose and consumers ordered more digital and premium services. While the results fell short of Wall Street's forecast, CMCSA shares are trading mildly higher.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) said its second-quarter profit more than doubled due to increased production and higher steel prices. It also gave an upbeat outlook for third quarter. The company outperformed consensus by about 20% at the revenue. MT shares, which have already close 7% higher Tuesday, are trading up another 6% in premarket action.
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) shares are crashing, trading 11% lower in premarket action after the company reported quarterly profit that was above market estimates, but revenue missed expectations and 2008 outlook was cut due to macroeconomic conditions and high fuel prices that have already impacted growth.
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) shares are over 1.7% lower in premarket trading after reporting a second-quarter loss as declining spending by smaller businesses and retail customers hurt sales.
Siemens (NYSE: SI) reported that "third quarter net profit fell 31% due to a one-time gain a year earlier, but order intake and revenue rose, beating expectations and showing the industrial conglomerate's resilience so far to the economic downturn." SI shares are 3.9% higher in premarket trading.
Corning (NYSE: GLW) shares are down over 2% in premarket trading after reporting inline earnings per share, but revenue slightly below estimates.
IAC/InterActive (NASDAQ: IACI) said it swung to a second-quarter loss, hurt by a $300 million charge in its Cornerstone Brands business. Adjusted earnings were 35 cents per share as revenue rose 7% to $1.6 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected profit of 31 cents per share on $1.6 billion in sales.
"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."
In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."
"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.
"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.
"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.
"Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) is the only truly global steel manufacturer, operating in 60 countries on five continents," says Gordon Pape.
In his Internet Wealth Builder, he explains, "Like all steel companies, ArcelorMittal would be temporarily affected by a world recession but as a long-term international growth stock for your portfolio, it should be a winner."
"When you read through MT's 2007 annual report, you are left with the impression of a company with an insatiable appetite for growth. In just one year, MT entered into a joint venture deal for a steel mill in Saudi Arabia and built a new steel service centre in Poland.
"It also completed the acquisition of Sicarsta in Mexico, thereby creating that country's largest steel producer; received mining concessions in Senegal and purchased a 77% stake in a German gas distribution company to add to its regional energy network.
"It also bought a 51% stake in one of Turkey's largest steel companies and a 70% position in an Italian steel distributor; bought 100% of an Estonian steel galvanizing line.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: National Semi, E.W. Scripps and Dell were today's noteworthy upgrades.
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National Semiconductor Corp (NYSE: NSM) to Buy from Hold as it expects the company to benefit from a rebound in margins and revenue through 2008.
Bear upgraded E.W. Scripps (NYSE: SSP) to Outperform from Peer Perform based on strength in the network cable market and third party interest in potentially acquiring Scripps Networks Interactive.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on the company's competitively priced systems and a broader product portfolio.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman Sachs added Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to its Conviction Buy List.
The firm also raised Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Pan-European Buy List.
Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Procter & Gamble, Human Genome and Arcelor Mittal were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) to Hold from Buy on valuation and their expectation for slowing short-term industry growth, especially in beauty.
Citigroup downgraded Human Genome (NASDAQ:HGSI) to Hold from Buy as they believe giving up Syncria's royalties removes an important value driver for the stock.
HSBC downgraded shares of Arcelor Mittal (NYSE:MT) to Neutral from Overweight on valuation and believes the company needs to raise prices more than costs have risen for iron ore, coking coal and steel scrap.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
BAE Systems (NASDAQ:BAESY) was cut to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
Merrill downgraded Zoltek (NASDAQ:ZOLT) to Neutral from Buy.
Those who were hoping for an Obama victory lap on the floor of the NYSE only got their toes bitten by bears. Weakening economic data and the market preparing for very weak retail sales numbers took away any shot of major gains today, and you can always blame major profit taking after a multi-day rally phase we saw.
Arcelor Mittal
The focus of 
Here are some highlights from this past week's 
U.S. stock futures are higher Wednesday morning, a day after markets rallied around 2.4% due to declining oil prices. But today, ADP monthly employment data will be released, as well as weekly oil inventories data. Investors will digest the numbers and the slew of earnings due for release.
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GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus
