The Street.com's Jim Cramer says that it's too soon to think about selling the semis, the PCs, the components, the DRAMs.

When do we sell the semis? The DRAMS? The flash? When do we get out of the hard drives?

These are legit questions, but the people who are asking, "When do we sell Micron (NYSE: MU) (Cramer's Take), Western Digital (NYSE: WDC) (Cramer's Take) and SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) (Cramer's Take)?" are the very people who told you never to own them.

That's the conundrum of this semi cycle and PC cycle. Just as we are finally hitting our stride and we realize that the semi cycle is alive and well again, AND NOT JUST RE-STOCKING, all over the papers, including the Wall Street Journal, we see reports crying, "When do we sell?"

The Dow Jones Industrial average jumped about 125 points on Monday but has given back about two-thirds of that gain through trading so far today. The story with the S&P 500 index is similar, though not quite so severe: a giveback of about a quarter of Monday's gain. The NASDAQ Composite index is doing better, up about 3% so far today, to remain virtually even with Monday's gains. The indices are slowly gaining back some ground lost earlier this morning, so by the close of trading today, the markets could show a small gain.

Here are the numbers:

Dow 9,712.28 -29.92 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,057.07 -3.54 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,122.42 -1.62 (-0.08%)

Autumn has arrived and the quarter winds down this week. The Dow has been inching toward 10,000 for a while now, though it closed lower in the past three sessions. Can it make it to 10,000 for the start of the third quarter? If so, what will push it higher? If not, what will drag it down further?

• Monday is Yom Kippur, the most solemn of the Jewish holidays; trading likely will be lighter than usual. In the evening, the FDIC meets to discuss how to rebuild the Bank Deposit Insurance Fund.
• Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for September is due and the SEC holds a public meeting to consider more short sale actions.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the spike in stock prices warrants no buying until prices go lower.

I read a scary book this weekend: the S&P chart book. It was frightening because there weren't more than a handful charts that aren't overextended, and many stocks have reached levels that I didn't like when their companies were doing well. Chart after chart in every business, but especially retail and industrial, have moved up so much that you have to feel like a chump to come in at these levels.

There are almost no stocks with growth prospects that have accidentally high yields anymore. Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) (Cramer's Take) and Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX) (Cramer's Take) were the only two that I saw that seemed remotely appealing, and maybe Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) (Cramer's Take).

It was just a couple of weeks ago that BusinessWeek reported on Micron Technology Inc.'s (NASDAQ: MU) effort to diversify with an acquisition of DisplayTech, a producer of display screens such as those used as viewfinders for digital cameras. Micron, one of the largest memory chip makers in the semiconductor industry, has been reporting losses over the past two years due to steep declines in the price of computer memory.

DisplayTech has been developing a new technology called "pico projection," which can produce crisp images from small devices. This innovation could make it possible to deliver a business presentation from a BlackBerry without having to lug along a laptop and full-sized projector.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded KBW, Inc (NYSE: KBW) to Market Perform from Underperform as it sees increased capital-raising opportunities for small and mid-sized banks and believes the company's quarter is off to a strong start. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $18.
• Pali Capital upgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Buy from Neutral on expectations the company's strategic shift towards advisory, distribution and retail will be monetized sooner than expected and its capital markets business is gaining traction. The firm set a $33 target on the stock.
• Baird upgraded Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $58 from $55 based on valuation predictable earnings, and its market leading platform.
• Apollo Investment (NYSE: AINV) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was lifted at Goldman to Buy from Neutral.
• Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded MICROS Systems (NASDAQ:MCRS) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's cost cutting is running ahead of Street expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes companies will beat EPS estimates given lower commodity costs, focus on cost controls, and reduced drag of inefficient, new restaurants on unit level margins. Additionally, they believe reduced mortgage payments from refinancing will incrementally help traffic.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its target price to $15.
• American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Micron (NYSE:MU) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is recently down $5.58 to $51.60 in pre-open trading. The company reaffirmed its financial guidance for Q4 and expects revenue for the quarter to be at or near the mid-point of the previously guided range. RIMM will announce Q4 financial results on April 2. RIMM February 50 straddle is priced at $7.73, RIMM March 40 straddle is priced at $10.90. March option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 70, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) closed at $4.02. MU and Elpida Memory submitted an industry consolidation plan on February 6 to the Taiwan government in an attempt to receive financing. MU March option implied volatility of 95 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, indicating non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman added McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) to its Conviction Buy List as they believe the company will beat their earnings expectations over the next couple quarters. Note that Burger King (NYSE:BKC) was removed from the list.
  
• Baird upgraded Woodward Govenor (NASDAQ:WGOV) to Outperform from Neutral citing increased confident in its outlook following the better-than-expected Q1 report.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) to Hold from Sell and removed shares from their Top Picks Live List as a Sell as they believe current expectations are very low following the recent weakness. Citigroup lowered their target price to $13 from $18.
• Ford (NYSE:F) and Lear (NYSE:LEA) were upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank.
  
• KT Corp (NYSE:KTC) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
  
• Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Collins Stewart and to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Analyst downgrades:

• Goldman removed Burger King (NYSE:BKC) from its Conviction Buy List citing recent share strength. Note that McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) was added to the list.
  
• Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of Och-Ziff Capital (NYSE:OZM) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect the company's near-term headwinds. The firm lowered their target to $5 from $6.50.
  
• Morgan Stanley downgraded Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), and Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they believe industrial metals will be depressed through next year.
• Air France (Other OTC:AFLYY) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS.
  
• Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) was lowered to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
  
• Radware (NASDAQ:RDWR) was cut at Argus to Hold from Buy.

Analyst initiations:

• Merriman initiated Suntech (NYSE:STP) with a Sell rating. The firm is concerned by the company's debt load and narrowing maturity and thinks further cost reduction in China could be a challenge. The firm believes a fair price target range is $3.50-$4.50 per share.
  
• JMP Securities views Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) as a long-term "must buy" given its dominant market position, strong balance sheet, and low valuation. Shares were initiated with an Outperform rating and $400 target.
  
• Auriga started Micron (NYSE:MU) with a Buy rating and $5 target. The firm expects DRAM oversupply to ease in the second half of 2009 and believes Micron will not burn significant cash this year.
• Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) was initiated at Morgan Stanley with an Equal Weight rating and $41 target.
  
• Core Laboratories (NYSE:CLB) was initiated with a Buy rating and $80 target at Wunderlich.
  
• Mylan (NASDAQ:MYL) was started with a Buy rating and $16 target at Citigroup.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded OceanFreight (NASDAQ:OCNF) to Perform from Underperform on valuation and a lack of negative catalysts following the recent weakness.
  
• UBS raised Micron (NYSE:MU) to Buy from Neutral citing supply cuts which should improve prices. The target remains $5.
  
• Jesup & Lamont upgraded Atlas Air (NASDAQ:AAWW) to Buy from Hold is positive on the company's 20 year blocked space agreement with DHL and expects the stock to continue higher.
• AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List and upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Goldman also upgraded Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Digital River (NASDAQ:DRIV) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stanford.

Analyst downgrades:

• Stephens downgraded shares of Titan Machinery (NASDAQ:TITN) after their survey of farmers indicated declining sales of agricultural equipment. The firm lowered their target to $19 but believes Titan Machinery's long-term growth story remains intact.
  
• Jefferies downgraded Helen of Troy (NASDAQ:HELE) and Blyth (NYSE:BTH) to Underperform from Hold as they believe the further deterioration in the U.S. consumer macro environment could pressure near-term results. The firm lowered its target on Helen of Troy to $13 from $16.50 and on Blyth to $5.50 from $8.
  
• UBS cut Indevus (NASDAQ:IDEV) to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $5.50 from $5 following the acquisition offer by Endo Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ENDP).
• AECOM Tech (NYSE:ACM) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Amerisafe (NYSE:AMSF) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  
• Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray.

Analyst initiations:

• KeyBanc initiated Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) with a Buy rating and $22 target. The firm believes the Urban Outfitters and Antropologie divisions are under penetrated and have visible growth.
  
• Kaufman Bros. started SuccessFactors (NASDAQ:SFSF) with a Hold rating and $7 target and believes the current demand backdrop could be worse than reflected in current consensus estimates.
  
• CarMax (NASDAQ:KMX) was initiated at Baird with a Neutral rating and $10 target. The firm is impressed with CarMax's business model but does not see a way around the near-term economic headwinds.
• Manulife Financial (NYSE:MFC) and Sunlife Financial (NYSE:SLF) were assumed with Equal Weight ratings at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Oppenheimer started Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ:PSUN) with a Perform rating.
  
• Kite Realty Trust (NYSE:KRG) was initiated with a Buy rating at Janney Montgomery.

Over the last few years, commodities have been at the center of a boom-and-bust cycle not witnessed before in our lifetimes. But one commodity that missed out on the boom -- but certainly not the bust -- is the dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chip.

This key component of the personal computer became a commodity after the dot-com boom, and its seemingly unlimited supply and availability resulted in falling prices.

There has been no hedge fund craziness with this commodity to drive up prices. Nope, this poor little semiconductor chip could not attract any sort of interest on the buy side. As a result, companies that make the DRAM chip have been struggling to survive.

There's not a whole lot on the economic calendar this coming week, as Thursday is Christmas day. But things are not entirely silent either.

As this is Christmas card season, it's somehow appropriate that American Greetings Corp. (NYSE: AM) is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the nation's number two producer of greeting cards to report earnings of $0.52 per share, essentially the same as a year ago. Estimated revenue for the quarter is $474.5 million, down 2.3% from a year ago. American Greetings missed analysts' estimates in three of the past four quarters -- by 55.4% in the first quarter. After falling to a multiyear low of $7.85 per share in late November, the price closed Friday at $9.92. But the share price is 53.8% lower than a year ago.

Drugstore chain Walgreen Co. (NYSE: WAG), where one may find American Greetings cards, is expected to also report earnings the same as a year ago, or $0.46 per share, on revenue of $15.1 billion (+7.5%). Walgreen reported a modest increase in sales in October and again in November. The company only missed profit estimates in one of the past four quarters, and that by only a penny. The consensus recommendation remains to buy WAG, which has a long-term EPS growth rate forecast of 12.5%, better than the S&P 500 but less than that of rival CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS). Walgreen's share price has been creeping upward since reaching a multiyear low of $21.28 in October and closed Friday at $26.08. (For more on Walgreen, see Steven Mallas's earnings preview.)

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) to Buy from Hold on expectations that Haynesville results could be a catalyst in 2009. The firm raised their target to $100 from $94.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) to Outperform from market Perform following the completed merger with Allied Waste (NYSE: AW).
  
• KeyBanc upgraded NorthWestern (NYSE: NWE) to Buy from HOld as they expect the Montana commission to grant the company's pending request for an accounting order to smooth pension expenses over five years.
• EnCana (NYSE: ECA) was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  
• Goldman also upgraded Questar (NYSE: STR) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) was raised to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst downgrades:

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as they believe the bank is not seeing a mass exodus of depositors.
  
• Wachovia upgraded Brookfield Infrastructure (NYSE: BIP) to Outperform from Market Perform due to what the firm sees as the company's solid cash flow growth outlook, strong balance sheet, and discounted valuation.
  
• Baird upgraded Tellabs (NASDAQ: TLAB) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation and improving 2009 prospects from 8800, 8600, and 7100 products and better Opex management..
• Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Cowen.
  
• UBS raised Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Borg-Warner (NYSE: BWA) was raised to Buy from Hold at Keybanc.

Analyst downgrades:

• Merriman downgraded shares of TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) and Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) to Neutral from Buy to reflect concerns about display advertising trends and the company's above average exposure to the financial vertical.
  
• Baird downgraded Monaco Coach (NYSE: MNC) to Neutral from Outperform and Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) and Winnebago Industries (NYSE: WGO) to Underperform from Neutral citing valuations and checks that indicate "dreadful" fundamentals.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Sector Perform from Outperform citing weakening consumer spending, reduced visibility, and risks to valuation. The company's target was lowered to $140 from $200.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merrill upgraded shares of General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) to Neutral from Underperform on expectations for fundamentals to improve in 2009.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Chubb (NYSE: CB) and Travelers Group (NYSE: TRV) to Buy from Hold as they expect the company to benefit from the AIG (NYSE: AIG) fallout. The firm raised Chubb's target to $57 from $56 and Travelers Group's target to $51.50 from $49.50.
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded shares of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Outperform from Neutral as they believe margin expansion can drive higher profitability.
• JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus.
• Goldman raised Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• NetLogic (NASDAQ: NETL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) to Underweight from Neutral citing the company's early stage pipeline and generic competition.
  
• Merrill downgraded Unilever (NYSE: UL) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the incoming CEO is unlikely to bring a major restructuring or split up the company.