Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

Analyst upgrades:

• Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Rockwell (ROK) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.
• Chico's (CHS) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital.
• Ann Taylor (ANN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
• Meredith (MDP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.
• CarMax (KMX) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
• Family Dollar (FDO) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital.
• Siliconware Precision (SPIL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie.
• Amedisys (AMED) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
• TRW Automotive(TRW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• Magna (MGA) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded PG&E (PCG) to outperform from market perform and raised its range for shares to $50 to $52 from $44 to $46, citing the proposed settlement in the company's 2011 General Rate Case.
• Jefferies upgraded Huntsman (HUN) to buy from hold and raised its price target for shares to $17 from $12, citing valuation and the likelihood for favorable earnings revisions.
• RBC Capital upgraded Jack in the Box (JACK) to outperform from sector perform with a $28 target, citing checks showing improved fast food sales in recent months and easy comps.
• Sonic (SONC) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital and $12 price target.
• Synaptics (SYNA) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan and $40 price target.
• Excel Maritime (EXM) was upgraded to buy from hold at Cantor and raised its price target to $7 from $5.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded Goldman Sachs (GS) to Outperform from Perform following the company's $550M settlement with the SEC. Opco has a $213 price target for Goldman shares. BofA/Merrill upgraded Goldman Sachs to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $182 from $160.
• Wells Fargo upgraded JP Morgan (JPM) to Outperform from Market Perform following the company's Q2 results citing valuation and lower credit costs. The firm keeps a valuation range for shares of $48-$51.
• Goldman upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to Buy from Neutral and has a $61 price target on the stock. The firm cites Murphy's Eagle Ford growth and valuation for the upgrade.
• Precision Cast (PCP) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Pride International (PDE) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
• BHP Billiton (BHP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to buy from hold following the company's analyst day. In addition, the firm raised its target for shares to $70 from $59.
• SunTrust upgraded Petroleum Development (PETD) to buy from neutral based on higher price realizations. The firm has a $31 target on the stock.
• Sterne Agee upgraded P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, citing valuation and SSS momentum. The firm has a $54 target on the stock.
• Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
• PepsiCo (PEP) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Baytex Energy Trust (BTE) was upgraded to buy from speculative buy at Canaccord.
• Disney (DIS) was upgraded to hold from sell at Citigroup.

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) which I first wrote about on April 29, 2009, at a price of $47.80, has tried the patience of investors over the past 12 months.

The stock recently held support at $50 and accelerated to about $60, but is now showing signs of a familiar range-bound pattern, hence it's probably best to exit shares at this stage, and take the roughly $12 gain.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded MasterCard (MA) to outperform from market perform on valuation as it views the sell-off in shares following the company's Q4 results as unwarranted.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded Best Buy (BBY) to buy from neutral on valuation as it believes sentiment has gotten overly negative on the stock. The firm raised its target on shares to $44 from $42.
• Citigroup upgraded Gap (GPS) to buy from hold on valuation following the recent pullback in shares and the company's sales results. The firm raised its price target for the stock to $24 from $23.
• Starwood Hotels (HOT) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Baird.
• Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to hold from sell at Collins Stewart.
• Motorola (MOT) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is probably the second most disappointing oil/oil services play in this market, after always-tough-sledding-ahead Frontline Ltd. (FRO). While some might think this is a good time to get out, I believe that since this is the oil sector, patience will rule the day (for now). Murphy, which I first wrote about on April 29, 2009 at a price of $47.80, is likely to continue its drive higher.

Refiner (85% of revenue) Murphy is well-positioned to capitalize on the rebound in U.S. gasoline sales as U.S. job growth finally resumes. The problem is, few institutions are biting at Murphy's projected $4.77 FY2010 EPS. And that leads to one of two conclusions: 1) MUR is undervalued or 2) institutions know something that typical investors don't, hence the consternation about this stock.

Just call Murphy Oil (MUR) a classic low-profile play, which is why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on April 29, 2009 at a price of $47.80. If you bought MUR in April, you're up about 27%.

Murphy reported Q3 EPS of 98 cents, roughly in-line with the First Call Q3 EPS estimate of 99 cents, and course Wall Street sold the stock, but just view that pull-back as a Buy opportunity. The reason? The argument here is that the refining sector (85% of Murphy's revenue) is just about at its weakest point, with U.S. gasoline demand likely to rebound in 2010 (although demand growth will be lower than during the previous economic expansion, due to higher gasoline/diesel prices). Murphy operates about 1,150 gas stations in the U.S.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) to Market Perform from Underperform following the Q3 results to reflect the company's improved earnings outlook and better credit trends. The firm has a $70 price target on shares.
• Kaufman Bros. upgraded Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) to Buy from Hold as it believes a bottom has been reached in the manufacturing and construction industries. The firm raised its target on shares to $30 from $26.
• Goldman upgraded Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) to Neutral from Sell and raised its target to $64 from $48 citing improved cost controls and construction outlook.
• Pentair (NYSE: PNR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.
• Lexmark (NYSE: LXK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.
• Stryker (NYSE: SYK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.

I'm reiterating my Buy rating for Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), first recommended on April 29, 2009 at a price of $47.80. If you bought then, you're up about 20%.

Murphy Oil remains the not-so-little-engine that could: Q2 upstream oil/natural gas production increased 18%, the company is on-track for 25-30% production growth in FY2009, and solid, double-digit gains in FY2010/FY2011.

The Obama administration's admirable goal to create a more self-reliant, energy-independent nation and the impact of efforts to first limit, then eliminate global warming from fossil fuels opens the door to alternative energy source development.

But, as Saudi Arabia reminds us, and the world, barring a breakthrough technology, fossil fuels will remain a major energy source for at least the next thirty to fifty years. In other words, the reign of oil has merely paused, not ended, which is why it's prudent to review Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR).

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Cree (NASDAQ: CREE) to Outperform from Perform as they believe LEDs are beginning to gain traction in general lighting applications.
  
• Jefferies upgraded Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) to Hold from Underperform following the acquisition by MidAmerican Energy. The company's target was increased to $25 from $20.
  
• RBC upgraded the Banking sector to Overweight from Underweight following the governments "massive assault" on the financial crisis. RBC believes government actions that include the potential creation of a Resolution Trust Corporation, the creation of federal insurance for money market fund investors and the ban on short selling will result in higher bank stock prices through year end; Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) and Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) were upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform.
  
• Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
  
• UBS upgraded Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR) to Neutral from Sell.
  
• Gap (NYSE: GPS) was upgraded to buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs.

Analyst downgrades:

• Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Thomson Reuters (NASDAQ: TRIN) to Sell from Buy as they believe uncertainty in the financial sector will hinder growth.
  
• Piper cut MIPS Technologies (NASDAQ: MIPS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe estimates are at risk following the departure of ChipIdea's co-founder. The company's target was lowered to $3.70 from $8.
  
• Jefferies downgraded GSI Commerce (NASDAQ: GSIC) to Hold from Buy on valuation as they view the risk/reward less compelling following the recent rally.
• Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) was downgraded at Baird to Neutral from Outperform.
  
• Wachovia downgraded Accenture (NYSE: ACN), Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) and Infosys (NASDAQ: INFY) to Market Perform from Outperform.

Analyst initiations:

• Jefferies initiated Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) with an Underperform rating and $38 target and thinks the company's sales and margins are at risk with negative comp trends getting worse.
  
• Cantor believes Lawson Software (NASDAQ: LWSN) has a powerful franchise while the stock trades at a 33% discount to peers. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $8 target.
  
• Stanford started Mentor (NYSE: MNT) with a Buy rating and $32 target and thinks the company is poised to benefit from growing global demand for products and services that make people look younger and more attractive.
• Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI) was initiated at UBS with a Neutral rating and $43 target.
  
• BMO Capital initiated Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) with Market Perform ratings and a $72 target and $42 target, respectively.
  
• Isle of Capri (NASDAQ: ISLE) was initiated at Goldman with a Sell rating and $6 target.

So the earnings crunch continues, and here's a look at some companies scheduled to report results this week that are anticipated to be big winners and losers in terms of earnings growth.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

• Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA): $4.10 EPS (+53.9%) on revenue of $3.8 billion (+54.6%)
• EOG Resources Inc. (NYSE: EOG): $2.34 EPS (+50.0%) on revenue of $1.7 billion (+62.2%)
• Avon Products Inc. (NYSE: AVP): $0.47 EPS (+44.7%) on revenue of $2.6 billion (+11.5%)
• Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT): $0.62 EPS (+43.5%) on revenue of $5.3 billion (+7.0%)
• Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES): $2.76 EPS (+38.4%) on revenue of $8.3 billion (+14.6%)
• Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR): $2.19 EPS (+35.2%) on revenue of $7.8 billion (+126.2%)
• Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL): $2.08 EPS (+34.6%) on revenue of $1.0 billion (+40.1%)
• U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X): $3.91 EPS (+32.0%) on revenue of $5.9 billion (+39.6%)
• Corning Inc. (NYSE: GLW): $0.49 EPS (+30.6%) on revenue of $1.7 billion (+21.3%)
• Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM): $2.52 EPS (+27.4%) on revenue of $144.4 billion (+46.8%)

Clearly expectations are high for oil and energy. Other companies expected to report double-digit earnings growth include Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), CVS Caremark Corp. (NYSE: CVS), NYSE Euronext Inc. (NYSE: NYX), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), and Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET).