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Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.

Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.

Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.

Continue reading Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

Analyst upgrades: PSD, RCRC and MVL

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Puget Energy, RC2 Corp and Marvel Entertainment were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Baird upgraded Puget Energy (NYSE: PSD) to Outperform from Neutral citing valuation on a stand-alone basis and sees additional upside if the merger with Macquarie is approved this fall.
  • Piper upgraded shares of RC2 Corp (NASDAQ: RCRC) to Buy from Neutral following the Children's Publishing Division acquisition as they view it as a good strategic fit and find RCRC shares attractively valued.
  • RBC upgraded Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) shares to Outperform from Sector Perform to reflect the company's visible earnings growth and valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • ASML Holdings (NASDAQ: ASML) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman. The firm also added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
  • Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  • Citigroup upgraded Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) and Credence (NASDAQ: CMOS) to Hold from Sell.

Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

I didn't think Get Smart was going to come in at number one, but that's exactly what happened, according to Boxofficemojo. The film, distributed by Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), took in an estimated $39 million at domestic theaters. The film, quite frankly, looks horrible, and I don't get the fascination people have with Steve Carell's supposed "comedic talents." I don't really find him funny. Doesn't matter, though, because moviegoers have crowned Carell king of the box-office weekend whether I like it or not.

I'm actually more concerned with the race for second place between Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk and DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda. Both are estimated as of this writing to have booked a little more than $21 million in ticket sales. I'm concerned about this because I own shares of Marvel, and I'm disappointed in the movie's box-office performance. As of now, the new Hulk has about $96 million in terms of total gross. The fact that it hasn't scored over $100 million by now, coupled with it experiencing a 60% drop for this weekend compared to its debut weekend, leaves me less than satisfied.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Love Guru bombed. Looks like you can't always count on stars to deliver the important opening-weekend audience. Are people getting sick of Mike Myers? (Jonathan Berr wondered the same thing.) He was only able to conjure up about $14 million for Viacom shareholders, bringing his film to a fourth-place debut. That's embarrassing for Myers, but unlike Steve Carell, he is genuinely funny (although maybe not so much in this particular film, it seems). News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) M. Night Shyamalan movie The Happening grossed around $10 million and came in fifth.

Continue reading Although Steve Carell isn't funny, 'Get Smart' was number one

A summer of success at the box office?

I love summer, not only for the weather, but also for all the movies making their way to the multiplexes. According to this article at Marketwatch, for the first six weeks of the U.S. summer box-office season, the total gross for theatrical movies hit $1.46 billion, a statistic that represents about a 5% increase year-over-year in the comparable period. You can thank hits such as Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for driving the nice results.

Now, I don't mean to rain on this parade, but I'm afraid I find myself in a similar frame of mind in terms of a piece I wrote back in March about the 2007 movie-business statistics. You see, I always like to look at number of tickets sold as a barometer for the true health of Hollywood. The number of tickets sold increased 1.6% to 206.2 million. The average price of a movie ticket rose 2.9% to $7.08. Now, while I am glad to see an increase this time around in terms of number of tickets sold, I don't find a 1.6% increase terribly exciting. It tells me that the theater industry still needs to convince people that it's fun to get out of the house, away from the giant televisions and the snazzy home-theater systems, and chomp on overpriced popcorn in a dark auditorium. Going to movie theaters is something that, in my opinion, can't truly be replicated in the home. A lot of people don't share that opinion, however.

The challenge for Disney (NYSE: DIS), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Sony (NYSE: SNE), and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal is to make people feel that waiting for the DVD shouldn't be the norm. The shared experience of a movie screening is a unique part of culture, and studios need to communicate this fact through their marketing campaigns. I do think there is more work ahead for Hollywood. Focus on the number of tickets sold, that's the big metric.

Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.

Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) movie The Incredible Hulk was incredibly disappointing (to me at least). No, I'm not talking about the quality of the movie. I didn't actually see it. But Boxofficemojo is reporting that it has grossed an estimated $54.5 million at domestic theaters over the weekend. While that was good enough for first place, it wasn't good enough for shareholders. The movie bombed, plain and simple.

Why am I being so hard on a number-one movie? It's not so difficult to understand. The awful Hulk movie that was released back in 2003 grossed $62.1 million in its opening weekend. There's no way to spin this. We've had five years of inflation between that terrible flick and this new iteration. Simply put, it should have grossed at least $65/$70 million, especially on the heels of Iron Man. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I don't like the fact that the success of Marvel's first movie of the summer didn't synergize a little better with the angry green guy.

Focusing on the positive, Marvel was able to beat DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) and its Kung Fu Panda project. The cartoon took in about $34 million and came in second. M. Night Shyamalan's The Happening, distributed by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), did okay by coming in third with a gross of around $30 million. Some analysts thought that the horror flick would do a little bit less than that number. Personally, I thought it should have come in second place considering Shyamalan's name, but I guess people aren't as excited as they used to be about his exercises in cinematic twists (the fact that it was rated R also inhibited its blockbuster potential). Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Adam Sandler comedy You Don't Mess with the Zohan did in fact get messed with yet again, dropping two spots to fourth place, grossing about $16 million. I've heard bad reviews on this one. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull were daring enough for fifth place. Everyone's favorite archaeologist has now breached the $275 million level. Great to see a favorite character of mine from the past doing so well.

Continue reading Marvel's 'Hulk' came in at number one, but was it a box-office bomb?

Does Marvel need Jon Favreau?

Yesterday, I wrote about my nervousness over Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. Today, I'd like to talk about how I wouldn't be so nervous if the Iron Man sequel ended up being directed by someone other than Jon Favreau. There are two excellent articles on The Motley Fool discussing this issue, one by Nathan Alderman and one by Marvel expert Tim Beyers. At the time those articles were published earlier in the week, it had seemed that Marvel was reticent about ponying up a higher compensation package for Mr. Favreau on the heels of the awesome success of the first movie starring Robert Downey, Jr. David Maisel, chairman of Marvel Studios, apparently wants to be very conservative about the company's above-the-line costs. Alderman thinks Marvel should give Favreau the requested raise, while Beyers understands the Hollywood dynamics going on and can see why both sides are doing what they are doing.

By the time my own piece is published, it's possible Favreau may be confirmed as the director of the second Iron Man (as I write this, there are rumors that a deal has been offered). Regardless of what happens, I'd like to offer my opinion on whether or not Favreau is an absolutely necessary component for an Iron Man sequel.

He isn't. And if shareholders think he is, then they had better rethink their investment in Marvel. What shareholders must ask themselves is this: Is it the director that is responsible for the ultimate success of a Marvel film, or is it Marvel management and the intangible value of the Marvel intellectual-property portfolio? Which element adds more equity? As far as I'm concerned as a shareholder, I'm investing in Marvel. I'm not investing in Jon Favreau. Any investor who believes that any one director is indispensable is going to be in for a stomach-churning ride, because when the day comes that a Jon Favreau or a Sam Raimi (he directed the Spider-Man flicks) decides that Marvel is no longer paying them what they're worth and jumps ship, the stock could easily see an overreaction sell-off.

Continue reading Does Marvel need Jon Favreau?

I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie

I have a confession to make: I'm getting nervous as the weekend approaches. A certain movie has me rather frightened. Is it that creepy picture about mass suicides from M. Night Shyamalan? Nope. It's Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) The Incredible Hulk. I'm a shareholder of Marvel, and I'm worried about its prospects. It opens on Friday the 13th. Yeah, that's a lucky omen.

Hulk, which is being distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal (I own GE as well, but this won't move GE at all), represents a fresh start for the green, angry beast. If you'll recall, there was a Hulk movie back in summer 2003. It was horrible. In fact, I remember getting up and walking around the theater during a portion of the film so that I could do a bit of self-editing on it. This time around could be different. I just read a review from The Hollywood Reporter that was featured in this Reuters link, and I have to say, I do feel a little calmer. According to the review, this new take on the Hulk character is an entertaining cinematic diversion wholly suitable for the dog days of summer. It apparently is a superior product.

Continue reading I'm nervous about the new 'Hulk' movie

Marvel HULK definitely is Incredible!

I just came back from an advanced screening of Marvel Entertainments (NYSE: MVL) Incredible Hulk and it surpassed my expectations as did Iron Man before it.

The preview Wednesday night, two days ahead of the premier scheduled for Friday the 13th, is probably too scary for little tykes but it is a superb blend of movie technology magic and the passion of the cast and crew.

It's all in the eyes. Unlike the glib Tony Stark character in Iron Man, played fittingly by Robert Downey Jr., Edward Norton is the emotionally gamma ray charged green powerhouse that only roars, and must communicate his feeling though his eyes. This is the case when the Hulk's temper rages and when he is expressing his affection for Dr. Elizabeth Ross, played by to perfection by Liv Tyler.

Continue reading Marvel HULK definitely is Incredible!

The Zohan is no match for the Panda

The weekend domestic box-office results weren't too shocking. I pretty much knew that DreamWorks Animation's (NYSE: DWA) Kung Fu Panda would kick its way to the top (I wonder how many writers will be using that phrase when covering the movie this week). But when I saw that Boxofficemojo estimated a $60 million gross for the cartoon, I actually was disappointed. These days, a $60 million haul in the summertime doesn't seem impressive. I thought Panda might have been worth a little more. But, after checking some of the historical openings for other DreamWorks pictures, I realized that Panda did all right. It actually was one of the bigger debuts for the studio.

Even though the cartoon seemed a lock for first place, I thought Sony's (NYSE: SNE) You Don't Mess with the Zohan project would be a close second. At a $40 million estimated gross, it wasn't. I don't know if you can mess with Zohan or not, but you apparently can mess with Adam Sandler and best his star power. Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull is still going strong in third place. It has crossed the $250 million level, and it is headed for $300 million. Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City, however, has lost a great deal of thunder, dropping from first to fourth place in its second weekend at the multiplexes. It is just shy of the $100 million mark. Is Sex nothing more than an opening-weekend phenomenon? It seems that way, but we'll have to see how steep the drops are in subsequent weekends.

The Strangers, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, dropped from third to fifth place in its second weekend, a rather predictable event for a horror movie. At a $37 million total gross so far, The Strangers won't go down as a huge triumph, but you've got to love the profit potential for this low-budget flick that succeeded in counterprogramming its way to summertime glory. Universal obviously thought the film's concept possessed a chance to score a $100 million total haul since it placed the movie against the big guns of this busy period, but that's okay, the try was worth it in this case.

Continue reading The Zohan is no match for the Panda

Marvel Entertainment (MVL) added to S&P MidCap 400

MVL logoMarvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) shares are trading higher this morning after Standard & Poor's announced that it added the stock to its S&P MidCap 400 index. MVL is rising today as investors believe that after these announcement, demand for the stock will be unusually high as mutual funds scramble to add the stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MVL.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.21 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $35.00 in May. MVL opened this morning at $34.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $34.48 and a high of $35.75. As of 12:55, MVL is trading at $35.17, up $1.30 (3.8%). The chart for MVL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just seven weeks as long as MVL is above $30 at July expiration. Marvel would have to fall by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Marvel Entertainment (MVL) added to S&P MidCap 400

Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

The box-office estimates from Boxofficemojo for this past weekend surprised the heck out of me. Apparently, I'm out of touch with how popular this HBO show actually was because Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Sex and the City captured first place at domestic multiplexes, hauling in over $55 million as of now (the numbers will change when they are finalized later on). Honestly, I thought I was going to be writing about the failure of Carrie and the gang. Kudos to Time Warner for opening this picture to great success.

Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull continues to bring in the nostalgia crowd as well as generate new fans for the franchise. It came in second place with about $46 million for the weekend. Still, I'm amazed that "Sex and the City" topped it.

Continue reading Time Warner scores at the box office with 'Sex' pic

Can Marvel make money off characters other than 'Iron Man' and 'Hulk'?

According to The Hollywood Reporter, comic-book publisher Marvel (NYSE: MVL) has come up with another character set to exploit from its vast library. I've never heard of this title, but apparently a comic book called Runaways, which has been around since 2002 and has developed a following. It has been tapped by management to be source material for a movie. It has something to do with teenagers who have parents that are evil villains. This sends them for a loop, causing them to run away and to attempt to process this shock to their systems. I don't really know a lot about this universe.

And that's what fascinates me about it from the perspective of being a shareholder. It both frightens and excites me at the same time. One of the biggest issues surrounding Marvel has been the oft-mentioned value of the company's 5,000 characters. Some have pointed out that, once you get through Hulk, X-Men, Spider-Man ,Iron Man and a few of the other major hitters, Marvel really doesn't have any other big properties to lean on in terms of generating viable movie franchises. For instance, is Ant-Man going to be a huge success at the movies? For that matter, what the heck is an Ant-Man anyway? Wasn't he made fun of in an old Saturday Night Live sketch from the 1970's? I sometimes do have some reticence when thinking about characters such as Thor, Captain America, and, yes, Ant-Man. Will they be accepted by the movie-going youth as readily as Iron Man recently was at the multiplex?

This is why I think it's a neat idea to start testing the perception of Wall Street investors by announcing the film adaptation of a lesser-known quantity. I mean, I haven't heard of this Runaways thing, at least. But maybe something a little more modern compared to the Captain America character will resonate perfectly fine with the youthful target audience of today. Perhaps Marvel will find out the true value of its brand equity when it slaps its name on something that hasn't been promoted over several decades. It's difficult to say at this stage, and I'll concede that it might be a bit early to begin evaluating this concept when investors are more worried at the moment over the potential success or failure of the new Hulk picture that is set to open very shortly.

Still, if Marvel wants to compete with big guns such as Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), then it needs to broaden its horizons and move beyond Wolverine.

Continue reading Can Marvel make money off characters other than 'Iron Man' and 'Hulk'?

'Indiana Jones' rises to the top while 'Prince Caspian' continues to disappoint


The box-office results are in, and I don't think there's any surprise concerning which film took the top honors this Memorial Day. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), took in $126 million over the four-day weekend at domestic theaters, according to Boxofficemojo. Taking into account Thursday showings, Skull has so far grossed about $151 million. These aren't record numbers as far as I know, but they certainly were high enough to displace Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Prince Caspian flick from the number-one position. The movie captured about $28.6 million at the multiplexes, good for second place; up to now, the Narnia sequel has a total tally of around $96 million.

Which is completely unacceptable to Disney shareholders (I'm one of the disappointed, and I wrote about my disappointment last week). Consider that the Memorial Day weekend is done, and that this is the second weekend for the project. To not crack $100 million domestically for a movie brand that was supposed to be strong considering the business that the first Narnia did back in winter 2005 should be troubling to Bob Iger.

At least Iron Man is around to cheer me up. The Marvel (NYSE: MVL) masterpiece is still in the top five at number three and has now enjoyed a $257 million take. I own shares in Marvel, so I'm glad the picture is offering some balance to Disney's relative flop. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) What Happens in Vegas and Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer took up fourth and fifth place, respectively. I suppose I shouldn't complain; Time Warner shareholders must put up with the fact that Speed Racer hasn't even cracked $40 million yet. Maybe that's the true bomb of the summer.

Continue reading 'Indiana Jones' rises to the top while 'Prince Caspian' continues to disappoint

Is Disney's 'Narnia' fantasy dead?

Disney's (NYSE: DIS) new Chronicles of Narnia flick, Prince Caspian, opened on top of the weekend box office to an estimated $56.6 million take at domestic theaters according to Boxofficemojo.com. The media is buzzing with how awful this number is. Well, I'm not sure any of the media outlets I checked actually used the word awful, but I'm using it.

Simply put, the first Chronicles of Narnia movie grossed more than $65 million in its debut weekend, a significantly higher figure than what Caspian captured. Think about this: the first Narnia entry was released in December 2005. Considering that the first film did pretty well, one would have figured that a sequel released a couple years later would have benefited from the high-traffic pre-summer period and that the first weekend would have achieved at least a $70 million+ opening. Never happened. Instead, even though Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man fell to number two, its estimated weekend haul of $31 million seems the bigger achievement by comparison.

So, who's to blame here, if anyone? Should Disney CEO Bob Iger be apologizing to shareholders? Maybe a small apology might be in order. I mean, did any of you out there feel the energy of the marketing campaign behind Caspian? I didn't. Once the early Iron Man buzz left the building, Disney should have rushed in to capitalize on the minds of moviegoers who were now waiting for the next big blockbuster coming down the pike; let's face it, during the summer box-office period, that's what we're programmed to do. Even now, I'm looking forward to the business waiting to be done by Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Disney doesn't have much of a chance to turn Caspian into a super blockbuster if Jones is the hit I think it's going to be. The competition will simply be too much.

Continue reading Is Disney's 'Narnia' fantasy dead?

Hasbro, jealous of Marvel, reacquires Sunbow Cartoons

The Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL) release of the box office hit Iron Man, still No. 1 in world wide distribution, has got Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) rethinking its potential opportunities to leverage its stable of characters into larger than life features.

Hasbro, the nation's #2 toymaker, has reacquired the worldwide distribution rights to over 1,000 hours of animated programming.

Under the terms of its new deal with Sunbow Productions, Hasbro has regained ownership of 1,000 hours of cartoons featuring G.I. Joe, Transformers, My Little Pony and Littlest Pet Shop. With the tremendous success of the live action Transformers movie, and a second Transformers as well as a G.I. Joe live action film in production, Hasbro clearly wants full control over its intellectual properties in order to maximize their exploitation.


Hasbo closed yesterday pennies off it's 52-week high of $37.35 and is trading around $36 midday today. Meanwhile Marvel also closed yesterday just off it's 52-week high of $35 closing at $34.27. It is down now in midday trading around $34.50. However, it is up since I posted Chasing Value: Marvel's Iron Man will be HUGE!

UPDATE: HAS closed at $36.26 down -$0.93, and MVL closed at $33.73 down -$0.54.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not hold any position or own shares of HAS or MVL.

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Last updated: July 06, 2008: 08:31 PM

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